After the success of the Matildas in the FIFA Women’s World Cup, it’s now time for the Boomers to show out on the world stage. The FIBA Basketball World Cup begins on Friday, August 25th, and the Boomers are among the top fancies to take home the gold. Below, we provide our best bets for the gold medal, suggested bets and stakings for all eight groups, as well as a three-leg multi for the first group stage.
Also, make sure to check out our Basketball Tips page regularly to find our full game previews and best bets for the key matchups throughout the World Cup. Good luck to everyone following our free Basketball World Cup betting tips over the next couple of weeks!
FIBA Basketball World Cup Betting Tips
Outright Winner
As is the case with all Basketball World Cups, USA are the strong favourites to win the gold medal. They’re currently trading at around $1.80 at most bookmakers, although you can get a slightly better price of $1.85 at TAB. They’re the favourites for very good reason and boast by far the most talented roster of any nation competing. Anthony Edwards will be their go-to player when they need a bucket in crunch time and is certainly one to keep an eye on.
Second favourite for the gold changes depending on the agency, but Canada are a nation that are mostly listed at single-figure odds, although you can get as good as $11 at TAB. They’ve never finished higher than 6th at a World Cup but are entering a golden age where they have multiple star players all in their primes. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the main man and is arguably the best player in the entire tournament aside from Slovenia’s Luka Doncic.
Australia ($12 at Bet Right) had their best finish at a World Cup in 2019 when they finished 4th, and managed to go one better with a 3rd place finish at the 2020 Olympics. The Boomers are going through a transitional phase with their roster and will be led by young NBA star Josh Giddey this time around. In saying that, veterans Patty Mills and Joe Ingles will still have important roles to play.
Another team that will feel they’re in with a chance at gold if the stars align is France ($13 at TAB). Recent NBA #1 draft pick Victor Wembanyama won’t be suiting up, but they still have 3x NBA Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert leading the way, while NBA veterans Evan Fournier and Nicolas Batum are also participating.
Spain are the defending champions and have proven success on the world stage. They’re currently trading at $15 at Bet Right, although the likes of Ricky Rubio and Marc Gasol won’t be there to carry the load this time around. They’ll be looking for inspired performances from the Hernangomez brothers in order to do something special.
Lastly, Serbia are the other nation that bookies have priced as potential contenders ($21 at Unibet). If they were at full-strength, meaning they had 2x NBA MVP and reigning NBA Finals MVP Nikola Jokic suiting up, they could certainly do some damage, but unfortunately that isn’t the case with the superstar opting out of the tournament.
Gold medal prediction: Although opting to go with a relatively young roster, USA are the team with the most firepower in the tournament, and they'll be desperate to make up for their 7th place finish in 2019. I think they’ve built this roster wisely by adding a bunch of quality 3-and-D players as well as big-men that don’t need the ball in their hands to be effective. They’re certainly short enough at sub $2 but they’re still a decent bet if you also believe they're a class above the rest of the competition.
If you want something at bigger odds, Australia are my pick for second while Canada are my pick for third. The Aussies have the second-best roster behind the USA, particularly depth wise which will give them the opportunity to chop and change depending on their matchup. As for Canada, they’re top heavy but if their role players can support the likes of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and RJ Barrett adequately enough, they could certainly make a deep run.
Also Backing:
Australia $11 at TopSport (0.5 Units)
Canada $11 at TAB (0.5 Units)
USA to Win
$1.85 (2 Units)
Group Winners
Group A (Italy, Dominican Republic, Philippines, Angola)
Italy are the class team in this group but will need to be switched on in their matchup with Dominican Republic who are led by NBA star Karl-Anthony Towns - by far the best player in this group. Still, Italy have superior depth and it would be a surprise if they don’t handle their business in this group. Philippines could be dangerous at times with Jordan Clarkson leading the way, although it’s tough to see them finishing higher than third amongst this opposition.
Suggested Bet: Italy to Win Group A ($1.75 at Ladbrokes) – 3 Units
Group B (Serbia, Puerto Rico, China, South Sudan)
Serbia would be thrilled with their draw in the opening group stage. They’re one of the key players in this tournament and shouldn’t have any trouble dealing with the other three other teams in this group, even without Nikola Jokic suiting up. However, they’re far too short in the market to take in a single bet.
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Group C (USA, Greece, New Zealand, Jordan)
Any team that draws USA in their opening group would consider themselves stiff. They’re the odds-on favourite to win the tournament and while they may not be quite at their best right from the start, they should still be dealing with their Group C opposition without any fuss. Again, too short to place in a single bet.
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Group D (Lithuania, Montenegro, Mexico, Egypt)
Lithuania are the short favourites to win Group D and while that makes sense considering their #8 FIBA ranking, they aren’t the powerhouse they once were and will be without their clear best player in Domantas Sabonis. Meanwhile, Montenegro enter the tournament with impressive leadup form and could prove to be a dangerous proposition. Nikola Vucevic leads the way for them and is easily the best player in this group. With that said, I’m keen to have something on Montenegro to cause an upset and win Group D.
Suggested Bet: Montenegro to Win Group D ($4.50 at Ladbrokes) – 1 Unit
Group E (Australia, Germany, Finland, Japan)
World #3 Australia headline Group E which also includes #11 ranked Germany. The Aussies are the favourites to top the group and deservingly so considering their pair of top four finishes at the 2019 World Cup and the 2020 Olympics. They should be going through unscathed and there’s still some meat on the bone to back them in. Also, keep a lookout for Lauri Markkanen from Finland – the best player in this stacked group.
Suggested Bet: Australia to Win Group E ($1.60 at Ladbrokes) – 2.5 Units
Group F (Slovenia, Georgia, Venezuela, Cape Verde)
The hopes of success at the World Cup for Slovenia rest almost solely on the shoulders of NBA superstar Luka Doncic. He will dominate the ball for his nation and will likely lead this tournament in average points scored, and maybe even assists. Slovenia should be topping this group as the odds suggest, although I certainly wouldn’t discount Georgia who have been in fine form in the warmup games. I think the Georgians are well over the odds and might be worth having some spare change on.
Suggested Bet: Georgia to Win Group F ($17 at Bet Right) – 0.25 Units
Group G (Spain, Brazil, Iran, Ivory Coast)
Spain have won gold in two of the past four World Cups including last time in 2019. However, their roster is the worst it’s been since the turn of the century and I think they could be in for a tough time here. They don’t have any genuine stars to get them buckets in crunch time and will need to depend on teamwork and making the right reads in order to go deep this time around. Elsewhere, I saw enough in the warmup games to believe that Brazil are a genuine chance to defeat Spain and finish top of Group F, so I’m happy to have a nibble at the juicy odds.
Suggested Bet: Brazil to Win Group G ($7 at Ladbrokes) – 0.5 Units
Group H (Canada, France, Latvia, Lebanon)
Along with Group E, Group H is probably the strongest group. Canada and France are both genuine contenders for the gold, while Latvia are also dangerous on their day. As mentioned above in my gold medal preview, I consider Canada among the top three nations in this tournament. They have far more elite level talent on their roster compared to France, and they should be shorter than they are at Bet365 to top this group.
Suggested Bet: Canada to Win Group G ($2.10 at Bet365) – 1.5 Units
First Group Stage Multi
There are enough quality selections to build a value multi for the first group stage. I’m happy to include USA here to boost the odds, as well as backing in Italy and Australia. In my opinion, all three nations have a clear edge in their respective groups and should be going through undefeated. For these three selections you will get the best odds at Ladbrokes, and a smaller staking of 1.5 Units is recommended.
Leg 1: Italy to Win Group A ($1.75)
Leg 2: USA to Win Group C ($1.09)
Leg 3: Australia to Win Group E ($1.60)
Group Stage Multi
$3.05 (1.5 Units)
