Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Saturday, June 29th.
There's nine races on the card, with the first getting underway at 11.45am AEST.
The track is currently rated Soft, and even though there's fine weather predicted leading into Saturday, there is 2-10mm of rain predicted on Saturday, so I'd expect the track to remain Soft. The rail is in the true position.
My thoughts on every race on the card are below.
Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, June 29th
Best Bet: Race 6 - (2) Tysonic
Best Value Bet: Race 4 - (3) Graceful Storm
Race 1
A very deep two-year-old race for Winter, with some nice types going around. There's a good chance (3) Sizzlefly could be the best horse in the race here but this is a good test for her. She's drawn wide in barrier 12 and will need to come from off the speed at Caulfield and attempt to run down a few good ones ahead of her. There's a chance she could be caught wide so apprentice Kayla Crowther will need to ride her well if she's to win. She's been dominant in her two career starts to date and recorded the best sectionals of the entire meeting at Pakenham last start. (2) King Of Hastings will be right up on the speed and Craig Williams is in the saddle. I've gone with him on top basically due to the jockey booking. Willow at this time of year is as good as any. The horse won on debut at Cranbourne before being nosed out at Sandown last start. The horse that beat him looks pretty decent so the form should hold up. (6) Scorpius is a $23 chance and could prove over the odds after a solid debut win at Moe. He stepped slowly that day and still finished off too well to win. Back to his home track today and if he can jump better he could be competitive. (9) Major only jumped out fairly but you always have to respect horses on debut from the Hawkes team.
Value: (6) Scorpius $23
(2) King Of Hastings
$3.20
Race 2
Could come back to bite me but I'm going to take on (3) Five Kingdoms today. He's been very well-backed early and is the clear favourite for the race, but he's going to map awkwardly once again today from barrier 10. They snicked him from the wide draw last start and he could only manage a midfield finish. Back in grade today, obviously goes up in weight, but the tactics are the msot important thing. (10) Shrouded In Mist was dominant last start with the blinkers on. She's drawn very wide in 15 but they'll take her back and let her finish off. She had no problems rounding them up on the Lakeside course last start, which gives me the impression she can win again today at Caulfield. Williams sticks with her which is a positive. (13) Tavistock Dancer returns from a spell. He's undefeated from two career starts to date and I'd expect him to be very competitive in a race like this. He's on his way to the Derby and looks the horse with the most upside in the race. He'll be finishing off hard from the back. (8) Royal Thunder had no luck behind Street Sheikh last start, caught wide throughout the race. Prior to that she ran 2nd to Silent Roar. There's some query over the Silent Roar form but if she brought the same kind of performance as she has her past two starts she'd be a good each way chance again today. The $2.80 about (11) Pria Eclipse to run a place also appeals. She doesn't win often but always is around the mark. She also looks the likely leader in the race. Competitive affair!
(13) Tavistock Dancer E/W
$7.00
Race 3
I'm a little bit concerned about the rise in weight for (1) Morrissy. He's won two of his past three starts in this class but they've been with 52kg and 55.5kg. He carries the full 60kg today, with at least a 2.5kg gap to the next horse. He does get Craig Williams on board and a good run from the inside barrier, but he might just struggle with the weight. I'm with (5) Fabric at the $4.00 quote. She's won two of her four starts this prep, and her two defeats both came behind Fidelia, which is a really solid form line. She also didn't get a lot of luck in either of those defeats. She was dominant at Flemington last start, and even though Craig Williams jumps off to ride Morrissy today, I'm going to stick with her. Michael Poy is flying and she carries just 53kg with his claim. He'll need to produce a good ride from barrier 10 but she's capable of winning this with the right run.
Race 4
Going to take a throw at the stumps with (3) Graceful Storm here. I think the booking of Craig Williams really catches the eye. If you look back through her form, you'll see she won a similar race to this three starts back, where she defeated Thrillster over this course and distance. She then had absolutely no luck behind Bam's On Fire two starts back, when she was held up the entire straight, and last start she drew barrier 12 and failed to make an impact, again behind Bam's On Fire. Drawn better today to sit closer to midfield, Williams goes on and she'll get enough speed on up front to run on. The soft ground is a major concern but we're getting $15. (2) News Girl resumes from a spell and based on her form from last prep, she can be more than competitive here. (11) Sweet Jazz was good first up behind Zizzis despite not having the best luck. Notably, Williams rode her in that race but jumps off today to ride Graceful Storm. (1) Tell Me should find this easier than what she's been facing in Sydney and draws well for a good run.
(3) Graceful Storm E/W
$15
Race 5
(7) Torpenhow looks hard to beat fresh from a spell today. First up last prep he came from last to zoom home over the top of them with 59kg at Canterbury. He's been off the track for close to four months but has had three trials to get him ready for this. The main query is the fact he's likely to settle a long way back in the run, so he won't find it easy to pick them up at Caulfield, but if he can do it at Canterbury then he can do it here. (6) Like To Think So is ready to win. He's had two runs back from a spell and was beaten less than a length last start. He's got two wins and a 3rd from three starts when third up from a spell and three wins from five starts at the distance. Drawn barrier 1 so should find the lead and prove tough to run down. (3) Barthelona didn't come up last preparation but his best form would have him right in this. Other than his first up run last prep, every other first up run from him has been good. (1) Bel Sonic is racing well and will be flashing home. Backing Torpenhow ($4.20) and Like To Think So ($7.00).
Value: (6) Like To Think So $7.00
Race 6
Sticking with (2) Tysonic here despite the 3kg rise in weight from its last-start win. He had to make a long, sweeping run to win that race and he should get a softer run from barrier 2 today. He can sit closer to midfield from there. Two starts back he was beaten 2.25L by (1) Dogmatic but he sat wide throughout the race that day and did a really good job to battle on for 2nd. I think he's got Dogmatic's measure - at the weights anyway - and I think he'll prove hard to hold out again with any luck. (7) Berry Dangerous and (12) Scherzer can both be included at big odds. They rise in trip after last-start wins in the country and might be able to sneak a place.
Race 7
Only seven runners in this but it's a competitive little race. (7) One More Try is ready to win third up and up to 2000m. Her run behind Dr Drill last start was good and it looks a solid form line. She drops in weight, gets Craig Williams taking over from Fred Kersley and won't have any issue with the soft ground. (5) Masculino is also ready to win third up from a spell. He finished 3rd behind Dr Drill and One More Try last start, where he carried 60kg. Drops to 52kg after the claim today, meaning he gets a 4.5kg weight swing on One More Try, giving him absolutely every chance of turning the tables. He still has to find over three lengths though. From barrier 1, he should lead the small field, and if they let him get away with cheap sectionals up front, he'll take a lot of running down. His two starts here at Caulfield have both been good. (2) Guizot is another that likes Caulfield. He's yet to finish out of the top two from four starts here. (1) Carzoff had no luck first up and isn't hopeless, but does have the weight to carry.
Race 8
One of the tougher races on the card. Anything could win this. (11) Honey Esprit isn't the worst chance at each way odds. She was well-beaten first up at Flemington but she's never very effective first up. Her two second up runs have both been good and she'll likely relish the track conditions today. Expecting her to roll forward from barrier 9 and she could give a decent sight. (1) Miss Norway went close first up. 1200m might test her but she has the ability. (2) Fragonard comes down from Sydney and Williams is booked to ride. On form, she looks set to be very competitive but she's yet to run a place from four starts when third up from a spell, so I have to take her on. (6) Nariko is another at double figure odds that can run well. She just hasn't found a suitable race this prep but she does today and she showed last start that she's not completely out of form, she just needs a few things to go her way.
(11) Honey Esprit E/W
$12
Race 9
(6) Elite Drake finds a really good race but I can see this turning into a speed battle up front given the way (7) Angelic Spirit raced last start. Those two could be fighting each other up front and that won't help either when it comes to the final 200m. That could set it up for (4) Street Sheikh, who has now put two wins together. The horse hates winning - even last start he tried to stop but Oliver threw him over the line to win by a nose. From barrier 1, he'll sit midfield and he'll look the winner at some stage if the luck comes. It's just whether he keeps his head in front once he finds the front. (10) Into Rio gets Williams on board after a dominant first up win. My query is he's had three starts when second up and has never placed. (9) Special Diva should be included at odds. She's had no luck in recent starts.
