And so, the decidedly average run of Thursday Night Football matchups begins. Week 5 kicks off with the 0-4 Bears heading to Washington to take on the Commanders. With the Bears one of only two teams in the league yet to taste victory this season, can they cause the upset in Prime Time, or will the Commanders continue the pain for the Bears?
Below, we will dissect the matchup, previewing how we think things will play out, and give out our Best Bet. Make sure you are following BeforeYouBet, as we will have dedicated Match Previews for all Prime-Time NFL games this season, as well as a preview of the main slate on Monday’s. All for free!
NFL Week 5 Preview & Betting Tips
Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders
FedEx Field, Friday 6th October, 11:15am (AEDT)
Last Week
The Commanders were more than competitive against the Eagles in week 4, and probably should have taken a chance they had in regulation to win the game outright, when ‘Riverboat’ Ron Rivera decided against going for the two-point conversion at the end of regulation. Instead, Rivera decided to take the game to overtime, where they ultimately lost 34-31. Sam Howell was solid, passing for 290 yards and a touchdown, whilst rushing for 40 yards. They drop to 2-2, and need a win to stay in touch in the NFC.
The Bears also well and truly had a chance to win last week, as they led the Broncos 28-7 in the third quarter, before conceding 24-straight points to go down 31-28, and maintain their winless start the to the season, and their 14th loss in a row. The Bears had 160 more total yards than the Broncos, however lost the turnover battle 2-0. They gave away far too many penalties (10 for 81 yards), and despite Justin Fields easily having his best game of the season, it wasn’t enough to get off the mark. Interestingly, the Bears are currently occupying the top two picks in the draft, with them owning the other 0-4 team (Panthers) 1st round pick next season. Something to look forward to for long suffering Bears fans.
Injury Report
Washington Commanders
Christian Holmes / Troy Apke (DB) – OUT
David Bada (DE) – OUT
Curtis Brooks (DT) – OUT
Brandon Dillon / Armani Rogers (TE) – OUT
Braeden Daniels (OG) – OUT
Jahan Dotson / Curtis Samuel (WR) – Questionable
Christian Holmes (CB) – Questionable
Chicago Bears
Josh Blackwell / Kyler Gordon (DB) – OUT
Khalid Kareem (DT) – OUT
Braxton Jones (OT) – OUT
Doug Kramer (C) – OUT
Eddie Jackson (DB) – Questionable
Jaylon Johnson (CB) – Questionable
Match Preview
Amazingly, these teams met on Thursday Night Football almost one year ago, with the Commanders visiting the Bears in week 6 last season. In a bludger of a contest, the Commanders managed to sneak home 12-7. The Commanders quarterback in the game was Carson Wentz, who threw for a paltry 99 yards, whilst the Bears managed 178 yards more than the Commanders, however lost the turnover battle 2-0, with Justin Fields being picked inside the Commanders redzone in the first quarter, in a play that had a huge bearing on the result.
The Commanders were 4.5-point favourites on the lookahead, and after their impressive display against the Eagles, and the Bears capitulation against the Broncos, the number re-opened at Commanders -6. The number got bet out to 7, where it met resistance, and amazingly the Bears have been bet since, with the Commanders currently sitting as a 5.5-point favourite at most books. I make the number close to Commanders -7, so I see some nice value here with the Commanders. The only concern I have, is the Commanders have already shown this season as a big favourite in week 1 vs the Cardinals, that they struggle with the expectation to win easily. They closed 7-point favourites in week 1, and never sniffed covering.
As for the total, it was 42.5 on the lookahead, before re-opening 44.5. The number now sits around the 44/44.5, and I like the over here. The Bears have shown they can’t stop anyone this season, conceding 38, 27, 41, and 31 points in their 4 losses to kick of the season. The Commanders’ defence has also conceded plenty of points, conceding 33, 37, and 34 in their past 4 matchups. The only drama the Commanders’ offense has had all season has been against a good pass rush, and the Bears are one of the worst pass rushing teams in the league. Adding to this, the Bears offense finally showed some life last week, and I can see them getting to 20 points, which should push this game over the total.
Two plays then, with the total being my best bet.
Other Bet
Commanders (-5.5) - $1.93 @ Boombet (1u)
Over 44 total Points
$1.92 (2 Units)
