Although they were beaten 5-0 in South Africa in October, Australia go into the series against New Zealand as the number one ranked ODI team in the world. We shouldn’t take much stock in the South African series, as the bowling attack Australia travelled with was a 2nd rate one at best. The first ODI against NZ will be played in Sydney on Sunday the 4th of December at 3.20pm (AEDT).
Australia look to be near full strength going into the series on home soil against the Kiwis, with pacemen Mitch Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Pat Cummins all named in the 14-man squad. However, one notable omission is that of John Hastings, who has taken more ODI wickets in 2016 than any other player in the world. The Aussies will most likely look to all-rounders Mitch Marsh and James Faulkner to provide the seam option and lower order power hitting vacated by Hastings in his omission.
Australia’s batting lineup looks consolidated. David Warner and Aaron Finch represent one of the most dominant opening partnerships in ODI history while a middle order that seems to stretch to number eight means that Australia rarely get bowled before their 50 over allocation is up. Steve Smith, George Bailey, Glenn Maxwell, and the all-rounder duo of Faulkner and Marsh means the Australian’s can bat all the way to the end and I think that factor, paired with a bowling attack that boasts Mitchell Starc is the reason why they’ll take this series.
New Zealand come into the series ranked 3rd in ODI’s on the back of Brendon McCullum’s retirement earlier this year. His replacement as captain, Kane Williamson, has elevated his game and is now regarded in the same breath as the likes of Virat Kohli, Joe Root and A.B de Villiers when it comes to ODI batting. Williamson and opening duo Tom Latham and Martin Guptill are three of the most talented batsman in world cricket at the moment, and they are half the reason for NZ’s current ODI ranking. The other half is the bowling duo of Trent Boult and Tim Southee. Boult is currently the number one ranked ODI bowler in the world, and Southee’s record as an ODI bowler is outstanding, his display in the 2014 World Cup highlights his potential.
However, after those two players, there’s not much in the bowling stocks of the New Zealand attack, and I think for that reason, paired with the absolute ferociousness of Australia’s middle order, means the important stretch of an ODI between the 20th and 40th overs will consistently favour Australia. I’m tipping Australia to win this series 3-0, which means they should take this opening Sydney ODI comfortably.
I don’t see much value in the $1.43 being offered for Australia to win this first ODI, so I’ll be looking elsewhere for value in this one. David Warner’s over/under for runs in this match is set at 45.5. In the South African series in October, Warner passed the 40 mark on four out of five occasions and is in blistering ODI form. I’m taking the over here.
TIP: David Warner OVER 45.5 Runs - $2.34 at Sportsbet
I tipped Mitchell Starc to claim a man of the match all through the Test series against SA, and while he came up short on every occasion, a guy that talented can’t stay out of form for too long. In a game where Australian batsmen will be very attacking due to their deep middle order, I think we could see a lot of mid-range scores, allowing the opportunity for a bowler to pick up MOTM honours.
TIP: Mitchell Starc MOTM - $9 at Sportsbet
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
