The 2023 Super Rugby Pacific season is on our doorstep and we’re looking forward to another exciting season of Rugby Union action with our rugby expert Jim Tucker in the chair once again.
Check out his 2023 Super Rugby Pacific Season Preview below and catch all the weekly action on our dedicated Super Rugby tips page.
2023 Super Rugby Pacific Season Preview
The much-improved showing by Australian sides against their Kiwi rivals in 2022 doesn’t guarantee more wins in the new Super Rugby Pacific season.
Each trans-Tasman success must be won afresh. All will be hard-earned and there will be no gimme games because there never are against the New Zealanders.
The ACT Brumbies, last year’s semi-finalists, did much to restore Australia’s Super Rugby pride in 2022 with four victories over NZ sides and that doesn’t include going ooh-so-close to knocking off the champion Blues on two occasions.
The 2022 ledger was eight wins from 25 games against Kiwi opposition when you also factor in victories by the Waratahs (two), Western Force (one) and Melbourne Rebels (one).
That’s a quantum leap from the dire two-from-25 ledger of 2021.
OK, let’s do a quick checklist to aid your judgement in picking themes and winners in 2023.
Form Lines
The ACT Brumbies should put up strong results again and run top four.
The improving NSW Waratahs can match their 8-6 win-loss record of last year’s regular season.
The Queensland Reds have some big plusses but will battle at times with no current Wallaby in their tight five, no Taniela Tupou and a lock crisis to start the season.
The Western Force look average and bottom-four material.
The Melbourne Rebels have admirably invested in the cohesion of their squad with a “build not buy” mantra but big weapons are grounded. Two Wallabies forwards, Matt Philip and captain Rob Leota, are long-term injured and key back Andrew Kellaway won’t be back from a foot injury for a few rounds. Eighth at a stretch.
World Cup Impact
One of the biggest considerations of 2023 is that squad depth matters more than ever because top players will be rested for two games apiece through the Super Rugby season because of the workload of a World Cup year.
That will hurt teams of thinner depth far more like the Force (Izack Rodda) when they are missing their blue-chip lock.
A team like the ACT Brumbies is far better placed. When they rest halfback Nic White for two games, sharp Australia A halfback Ryan Lonergan will replace him.
At lock, if standout pillar Nick Frost is rested for two games, Darcy Swain and Cadeyrn Neville will be there to take up the slack.
The NSW Waratahs will even be able to handle losing Michael Hooper for two games with Charlie Gamble such a whirlwind at No.7 under that Tom Selleck moustache.
Across the Tasman, the Highlanders won’t see All Blacks halfback Aaron Smith until Round Three and his classy back-up is only now returning from an ACL injury. Such a key position drama can flip a tip.
Make sure you check starting line-ups before throwing on a bet or you may get a shock that a star is being rested.
The Newbies
The 12-team competition casts a broad net with eight teams progressing to finals. It was an embarrassment that the worst Highlanders team in memory limped into the finals in eighth spot in 2022 with just four wins from 14 games.
That was only possible because the two new teams, Fijian Drua and Moana Pasifika, were always destined for the bottom four and had just four wins between them.
The Drua have improved markedly. Watching live their 48-38 win over the Force in a trial last week, the athletic Fijians were fitter, less panicked, more patient and far more grooved in their patterns.
An early tip...the Fijians will revel in playing more home games this season so mark down the Round Six clash in Suva against the Rebels as an April Fool’s Day massacre. They will definitely win more than two games this year.
You would expect Moana Pasifika to be more organised and settled too.
Recruitment and Injuries
The Reds have signed Fijian Test prop Peni Ravai to bolster the front-row but no one is going to fill the 135kg hole left by Tupou’s Achilles injury.
Australian Sevens flyer Corey Toole, experienced journeyman flyhalf Jack Debreczeni and Northland centre Tamati Tua are targeted signings for the Brumbies.
The Waratahs have definitely added size with former Chiefs lock Taleni Seu, former Wallabies hooker Tolu Latu and giant 132kg winger Nemani Nadolo all signed in the off-season.
The Force have lost the experience of retired Test players Richard Kahui, Greg Holmes and Jeremy Thrush so recruits Chase Tiatia, Hamish Stewart, Folau Fainga’a and English centre Sam Spink have to inject that piece as well as find their feet.
The Rebels’ injured stars have already been mentioned. They’ll get a lift from winger Monty Ioane, hooker Alex Mafi and busy halfback Ryan Louwrens as strong signings.
The Draw
Finally, the COVID disruptions to the draw are over... touch wood.
Last season, the Aussie teams and Fijian Drua played each other in a streak before six straight games against tough Kiwi opponents and Moana Pasifika.
The draw is back to normal with games against the Kiwis mingled with games against Aussie opponents.
The Reds fancy their chances of ambushing the Hurricanes in the heat and humidity of Townsville in Round One. From there, they have six games in Australia before a game in Samoa.
It’s a 14-match draw. Teams plays eight sides once and three sides twice which locks in a high local derby component such as two intense Reds v Brumbies games and two Blues v Crusaders blockbusters.
The Kiwis
Strong as ever and with plenty to play for. Stars like Richie Mo’unga, Beauden Barrett, Aaron Smith, Rieko Ioane, Ardie Savea, Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock will all be intent on big seasons for their teams before signing off to play for Japanese clubs after the World Cup. With all their All Blacks, the Blues and Crusaders will have to be clever with juggling “rest” games for them.
What does it all mean?
Whichever way you look at it, it’s a Kiwi champion of Super Rugby again because all the stars will be playing in the finals.
All the best Australian sports betting sites have the Crusaders as favourites at $2.75 or even shorter. The Blues, listed at $3.50 with most bookies, will challenge them.
The Chiefs, on the third rung at $5.50-ish, will take plenty of scalps.
Universally, the Brumbies are the most fancied Australian side on the fifth line of betting in most places and widely quoted at $15.
Until you find a “Best Australian Finisher” market, hold onto your money if you want to back an Aussie team over the long haul.
The Reds shade the Waratahs at most outlets on the seventh and eighth rung of betting. Some sportsbooks have the Reds at $17 and the Waratahs at $34 when they are much closer than that.
The Force and Rebels are friendless.
Have a great Super Rugby Pacific season.
