We have a high-powered Friday start to the 2023 Super Rugby Pacific season with a Crusaders-Chiefs clash that might be replicated in the June final and a classic NSW Waratahs-ACT Brumbies derby in Sydney.
In a World Cup year, the stakes are always higher with the ups and downs of Test team ramifications debated almost weekly. The Aussie sides made improvements last year by winning eight of their 25 clashes against Kiwi opponents but that’s still a very one-sided ledger when you take out four such wins by the Brumbies.
Head to our Super Rugby tips page for all of our tips and previews throughout the season. Each week we’ll have previews for all of the matches involving Australian teams, and tips for all of the remaining matches of the round.
Let’s dive straight in and find some Super Rugby Pacific winners for Round 1 action as all sides start to feel their way in season 2023.
Super Rugby Pacific: Round 1 Preview & Betting Tips
NSW Waratahs v ACT Brumbies
Allianz Stadium, Sydney, Friday Feb 24th 7:35pm (AEDT)
The Brumbies are on their longest-ever winning streak against the Waratahs - nine in a row. This is a different Waratahs side with fresh Wallabies talent and energy under coach Darren Coleman.
The build-up to this opener at the new Allianz Stadium has been terrific. The Waratahs have promoted the #CrowdTheHouse homecoming non-stop so you’d expect a big showing in front of nearly 30,000 fans.
Both sides have settled cores but it is hard to go past how good the Brumbies were last year. Their set plays were excellent, backrower Rob Valetini was a beast with his direct running and the pack could close their eyes and still maul in a try from a 5m lineout.
Curiously, the Brumbies are starting Jack Debrezceni at flyhalf and leaving Wallaby Noah Lolesio to come on as a finisher in a turbo-boost halves pairing with Wallaby halfback Nic White.
On that selection call alone, the $3.50 about a faster-starting Waratahs leading by 1-7 points at half-time has appeal as does a Waratahs-Brumbies Half-time/Full-time double at $6.50.
The Head-to-Head betting is $1.91 apiece which is a pointer to how close these teams look on paper.
Brumbies Win
$1.91 (3 Units)
Queensland Reds v Hurricanes
Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville, Saturday Feb 25th 7:35pm (AEDT)
It’s going to be hot and humid in Townsville. The new law variations for Super Rugby Pacific are all about speeding up the game which equates to more flagging forwards and targets for nippy runners.
Let's go with that premise and back Total Points at more than 53.5 at $1.87. The most recent Super Rugby game in Townsville was a points fest (74) of 11 tries in 2021.
This was such a promising opportunity for the Reds to spring a surprise on a Kiwi side. There’s no Wallaby in the tight five, no Taniela Tupou and James O’Connor and Jock Campbell are missing from the backline
There are too many question marks on this Queensland team despite the prospect of big showings from halfback Tate McDermott, No.8 Harry Wilson and fullback Jordan Petaia.
Total Points Over 51.5
$1.85 (4 Units)
Western Force v Melbourne Rebels
HBF Park, Perth, Saturday Feb 25th 10:00pm (AEDT)
It’s easy to see this as a battle between two bottom four teams but that doesn’t trim anything from how willing and important it is to both sides.
The Rebels are more settled and the Force will really feel the loss of Wallabies lock Izack Rodda, who played in both their trials.
Nine players are making Force debuts in the starting side and that spells being less organised than coach Simon Cron would wish. The Force have made a big switch after talking up Hamish Stewart as their top flyhalf option. He’s been switched to inside centre so Bryce Hegarty can run the show at flyhalf on a bare few trial minutes with his new club.
If the Rebels don’t win this one, they are going to struggle this season. They have won the last three times they have met the Force on the road too.
The club has got its act together off the field and every player will think so after the huge signing of Taniela Tupou for 2024-25 was announced this week.
Returning Rebels halfback Ryan Louwrens is a real effort figure with a super-competitive nature and that’s a plus to infect the whole side.
Take the start and back the Rebels. Perhaps the best bet of the opening round.
Rebels +5.5
$1.90 (5 Units)
More Round 1 Betting Tips
Crusaders v Chiefs
OrangeTheory Stadium, Christchurch, Friday Feb 24th 5:05pm (AEDT)
Chiefs +7.5 $1.91 Ladbrokes
Moana Pasifika v Fijian Drua
Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland, Saturday Feb 25th 2:35pm (AEDT)
Drua –1.5 $1.89 Neds
Highlanders v Blues
Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin, Saturday Feb 25th 5:05pm (AEDT)
Blues -9.5 $1.96 Ladbrokes
