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2022 AFL Round 1: St Kilda vs Collingwood Preview & Betting Tips

March 17th 2022, 1:46pm, By: Andy Rosos

St Kilda vs Collingwood Betting Tips

After two big matchups at the MCG to kick off the 2022 AFL season, the action heads to Marvel Stadium on Friday night as the St Kilda Saints look to kickstart their season with a win against the Collingwood Magpies from 7.50pm. 

As always, we have you covered with a full preview and betting tips for the game and remember to head to our AFL Tips page, where you can catch our coverage of all the Round 1 action. 

St Kilda vs Collingwood Betting Tips

Marvel Stadium, Friday 18th March, 7.50pm (AEDT)

St Kilda

Injuries: Hunter Clark, Jack Billings, Jarryn Geary, Dan Hannebery, Nick Coffield (Out), Paddy Ryder (Test)

The Saints will start the 2022 season with a few issues on the injury front. Key players Hunter Clark and Jack Billings both suffered injuries in the Saints win over the Bombers in the AAMI Community Series, while Jarryn Geary and Dan Hannebery are both battling ongoing issues. Paddy Ryder will face a test to get up for the Round 1 clash. 

The Saints had a very up and down season in 2021. When they were at their best, they looked like they could match it with any team in the league, proven with wins over the likes of the Swans, Lions and Tigers. However, on their bad days, it was extremely ugly. They have arguably the biggest gap in the league when it comes to their best and their worst and after having the toughest schedule in the league in 2021, they have been dealt a rough hand again in 2022 with third hardest fixture statistically. 

A positive for the Saints, however, will be the continued development of some of their young stars. Hunter Clark will start the season on the sidelines through injnury, but he looks ready to take the next step when he returns. Rowan Marshall and Max King are some of the best young big men in the game and look like solid pillars for the Saints to build around for years to come. If Max King can continue to develop and start to fill the void left in the Saints forward line by the departure of Nick Reiwoldt, we can see success on the horizon for the Saints. 

With games against Collingwood, Fremantle, Hawthorn and Gold Coast across the first five rounds, the Saints can't afford to get off to a slow start like they did in 2021. 

Collingwood 

Injuries: Charlie Dean, Nathan Murphy (Out), Patrick Lipinski, Taylor Adams, Jeremy Howe (Test) 

The Pies look pretty settled on the injury front heading into Round 1. Rookie defender Charlie Dean will miss the first few months of the season while Nathan Murphy will also spend some time on the sidelines. More importantly, the key trio of Lipinski, Adams and Howe all look likely to play in Round 1 agains the Saints. 

Collingwood finished in 17th place on the ladder in 2021, a year that was hindered by injuries and off-field drama for the club. Realistically, their squad on paper still boasts some massive names in the likes of Grundy, Pendlebury, Adams, Sidebottom, Howe, Moore, Maynard, De Goey, Jack Crisp and arguably the best rookie in the country in Nick Daicos. 

Those 10 players stack up against the top 10 of any team in the competition. Collingwood's issue comes with filling out the rest of their best 22. After paying the likes of Grundy, De Goey and Howe big money over the last few years, the Pies have faced real salary cap problems and the rest of their squad now looks pretty thin. 

The Pies were also dealt a tough hand by the scheduling gods. Their reward for finishing 17th last season was the 6th hardest schedule in the league for 2022. They do, however, have two winnable games against the Saints and Crows to start the season. 

Match Prediction

The Saints have more to worry about on the injury front here, but I also think they are more equipped to deal with those losses. They have much better delpth than the Pies and have some key players coming back in such as Ben Paton, Jade Gresham and Zak Jones while they have proven fringe level players in the likes of Mason Wood and Ben Long to step into the best 22. 

Leaning towards the Saints just slightly here. If this game was at the MCG, I'd probably be favouring the Pies, but we talked about the difference between the Saints best and worst, and over the past few years, their best has gerneally come under the roof at Marvel. 

Happy to take the Saints at the 8.5 point line. 

Saints -8.5 (1.5 Units)

$1.90

 

Prop Bets

Jack Sinclair might not show up on a lot of highlight reels, but he was one of the Saints most important players in 2021. In fact, the running defender is now classified as the only 'elite' level player at St Kilda using Champion Dats's metric. He averaged 21.1 touches in 2021 and finished the season with a flurry, passing the 20 disposal mark in 9 of his last 10 games. 

Jack Sinclair 20+ Disposals ($1.62)

Jordan De Goey has had at least 23 disposals in his last nine AFL games in a row. When he last played St Kilda, he was the Pies best player in a loss, racking up 32 touches and a goal. 20+ for a SGM anchor leg or 25+ for some real value here at $4.00.

Jordan De Goey 20/25+ Disposals ($1.72/$4.00 at Sportsbet)

This one is contingent on Paddy Ryder or any 2nd ruckman playing for the Saints on Friday night. I think Brett Ratten will try his hardest to utilise Rowan Marshall in the forward line as much as possible this season. If a 2nd ruckman plays, I love the value of Marshall to kick 2+ goals. 

Rowan Marshall 2+ Goals ($5.00 at Sportsbet)

 

Moneyball

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