A mini Saturday slate of 6 games today, but despite this there’s still some big games on the docket today. As we round into the final month of the NBA regular season, the team at Before You Bet will continue bringing you analysis, previews, and best bets for all the biggest games in the Association.
As always, we have you covered with previews and best bets for some of the key matchups for the NBA slate.
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2022-23 NBA Betting Tips: Saturday, March 11th 2023
Portland Trail Blazers at Philadelphia 76ers
Wells Fargo Center, 11:00am AEDT
The Blazers are in a dog fight for a spot in the play-in tournament in the Western Conference, with 5 teams within a game of each other occupying 9th through 13th spots in the west. And whilst the 4 teams above this lot are only 2 games further ahead, I believe that the final two spots in the play-in will be a fight between the 5 teams from 9th to 13th. The Blazers are coming to the end of a 6-game road stand, before heading home for 3 tough games against playoff level teams. They appear to be heading in the wrong direction, and if weren’t for the incredible offense being played by Damian Lillard, the Blazers could be close to the bottom 5 teams in the league.
The 76ers have been in solid form, with their stars all relatively fit. They are pretty well locked into the 3-seed in the east at the moment, however they won’t want to drop many games, with the Cavs definitely close enough to pass them for the 3rd seed. A drop from 3 to 4 will mean a big difference in the 1st round of the playoffs, with the streaking Knicks currently looking like a sure thing for the 5 seed.
So, both teams should be motivated, now it’s down to team level. I have the 76ers rated a 7.5-point better team than the Blazers on a neutral, and with the 76ers holding a solid home court advantage, the 8.5 looks a tad short. The 76ers have won half of their games this season by at least double digits, showing they are more than capable of blowing teams off the court. Meanwhile for the Blazers, their last 6 losses have been by 10 or more points. I like Embiid and the 76ers to get this done and cover the spread here, with the Blazers’ season now teetering on the edge.
Philadelphia 76ers (-8.5)
$1.90 (2 Units)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat
FTX Arena, 12:00m AEDT
Two of the best defensive teams in the NBA go head-to-head in Miami on Saturday, with both teams pushing hard for a higher seeding in the playoffs. The Heat, despite being 3 games behind the Nets for the 6-seed, still have a shot at the 6th and final seed to get straight into the playoffs. However, it’s looking more likely that they will have to go through the play-in tournament, with a 7-seed giving them by far the best chance of getting into the playoffs.
The Cavs meanwhile are currently sitting in the 4th seed, and despite the great play from the Knicks in 5th, appear to have at least the 4th seed wrapped up. The Cavs are currently 2.5-games back from the 76ers, so they still have a shot at the 3 seed, which as outlined in the 76ers/Blazers preview, would be a massive boost to Cleveland.
With both teams having their positions pretty well locked up, I’ll be looking at a total in this matchup. I have the Cavs about a 6-point better team on a neutral, so I do like them to win and cover, but I much prefer the total in this game, which currently sits at 214. I make it closer to 207, which gives us great value here. I’m not a massive fan of betting unders, but these defences are both great, and in the previous 3 matchups this season, the games have landed 200, 197, and 204 total points. Give me the under.
Under 214 Points
$1.90 (2.5 Units)
Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Lakers
Crypto.com Arena, 2:30pm AEDT
Both these teams look destined to be headed to the play-in tournament; however, their work is not done, and every game is critical to both moving forward. Let’s start with the Lakers, who are currently 1.5-games back from the Mavericks and Timberwolves in 9th place, meaning if the season were to end today, the Lakers would have to win two games to make the playoffs. So finishing strong could prove critical to the Lakers, and their chance at a second bite of the cherry in the play-in.
As for the Raptors, they also sit in 9th place, and they also sit 1.5-games back from 8th placed Atlanta Hawks. With 16 games remaining for the Raptors, 8th spot is up for grabs, but I believe they’ll be concentrating on just making the play-in at this stage, with the Bulls, Wizards, and Pacers all within 2 games of the Raptors.
Now for this game, and if we look at the recent form of the two teams, the Lakers seem the team to beat. Without LeBron, they’ve managed to go 3-2, with some good wins over the Grizzlies, Warriors, and Thunder. They have been playing well at home, and should be a favourite in this one all things being equal. The concern I have is the listing of Anthony Davis as questionable, along with D’Angelo Russell also being a game time decision. Obviously, if Davis is out this is a tough sell, but with so much on the line right now, I’ll trust him to suit up and get the Lakers the W as slight underdogs.
LA Lakers to Win
$2.04 (2 Units)
