There are 10 games in the NBA on Saturday, and we take a look at three of the biggest. First up, the Indiana Pacers (15-14) head to Cleveland to take on the Cavs (18-11), where we are looking at a total that could be a touch too high. Next up, two Eastern Conference teams battle it out in Toronto, as the Raptors (13-15) host the Brooklyn Nets (17-12). Finally, we head west in a massive clash between the Denver Nuggets (17-10) and the Los Angeles Lakers (11-16).
2022-23 NBA Betting Tips: Saturday 17th December
Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers
Quicken Loans Arena, 11:30am AEDT
The Cavs are an unders machine! They are currently ranked as the number 1 defence in efficiency metrics, whilst also conceding the lowest number of points per game in the NBA. And whilst the Pacers are top 10 in the league in points scored per game, their offensive efficiency is only good enough for 22nd in the league. Indiana plays at a high pace (4th fastest in the league), hence why they score so many points, however the Cavs are brilliant at controlling the flow of a game, particularly at home, and I love the under here which sits around 224. For reference, the last time a Cavs game went over 223 (not including overtime), was on the 14th of November, and only 5 games all year have gone over this number.
My fair total is 219.5, so give me the under.
Under 223 points
$1.91 (2.5 Units)
Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors
Scotiabank Arena, 11:30am AEDT
The Raptors are struggling of late, losing their last 3 games and going 4-6 over their past 10. Conversely, the Nets are one of the hottest teams in the league, winning 4-straight and 8 of their past 10. However, over the course of the season they have been far better at home, than on the road. So, there’s pros and cons for taking either side in this matchup, so I’m going back to the well with a total play.
These teams have already played 3 times this season. The points scored in these 3 games have been 114, 110 and 119. This total is currently lined at 226.5, and I struggle to see this one going over. These teams have played 5 times in this calendar year, they are very familiar with one another, and familiarity often brings lower points. We see it all the time in the playoffs, with the longer a series goes on, the lower the totals are lined. Of course, Durant and co. could catch fire and make this total sail over, but I’ll trust the Raptors’ home form to continue.
Under 227 points
$1.91 (1.5 Units)
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers
Crypto.com Arena, 2:00pm AEDT
It’s hard to confidently bet the Lakers 24 hours from tip, as Anthony Davis and LeBron James are constantly listed day-to-day on the injury report. So, I’d wait on this as long as possible, but it looks at this stage that both will go, in a big game for the Lakers at home.
The Nuggets are very efficient offensively, however defensively I don’t see them stopping the Lakers. Since Anthony Davis’ role shifted around mid-November, the Lakers have averaged 120 points per game, and that includes the two matches Davis missed, and the game Davis only played 8 minutes.
Another part of this handicap is the fact the Lakers have played 9 of their last 12 on the road. Getting back home will be good for them. On the flip side, this is a one-off away game for the Nuggets, before they head home for a 4-game home stand, with two massive clashes in that 4-game span. They may be looking forward, and not on the challenge at hand. I like the Lakers to win here, but obviously don’t bet this if Davis or LeBron are out.
Los Angeles Lakers
$2.02 (2 Units)
