The Ace is back again this Wednesday night with a preview of some of the key matchups of the night from the ongoing ATP and WTA events. Check out his best bets of the night below.
Ace has come aboard Before You Bet to bring you sparodic tennis tips every now and then, so be sure to check out Tennis Tips page regularly for updates!
ATP Vienna
Jannick Sinner vs Reilly Opelka
Approx. 11pm AEDT
It is incredibly difficult to fault the 2021 season from Italian star Jannik Sinner, however, today may be one of the few occasions where there appears to be value about opposing him on an indoor hardcourt.
Whilst this won’t be the largest play I have ever made; I do feel as though there are a few little quirks in this spot for Jannik Sinner that led me to taking him on. It has been an impressive 12 months, with Sinner compiling a 47-18 record across all surfaces. Outside of his struggles during the incredibly short grass season, there has only been another area of slight struggle that has become apparent this season, and it comes because of his success the week before.
Whilst the 47-18 record looks great, his record when backing up to play tennis the week after winning a title sits at 1-3. He has a win over John Millman, but losses to Denis Shapovalov, James Duckworth and Taylor Fritz when backing up quickly in the next tournament. When you couple that with a 6-4 record in the last 12 months on hard against players 6ft4inches and taller, with 8 tiebreaks across the 6 wins, there is an element of appeal in Reilly Opelka at his moneyline and game line here today.
Opelka has put together an improved body of form post grass season, highlighted by his run to the Canada Masters 1000 final in the weeks before the US Open. Whilst he has struggled in his last two indoor hardcourt appearances against Dimitrov and Brooksby, he is well suited to the conditions, and is an ATP title winner on the indoor hard. He possesses the serve and power to make life difficult for Sinner in his attempt to consistently dictate, and that ability is something that has led to all bar one of his losses since the North American hardcourt swing (and that was a loss to Duckworth – re-read the above for the explanation on that one).
Plus game handicaps when it comes to Opelka aren’t generally thrown around at great totals and prices, as we see today across most books. Instead of taking the +3.5 games at a juiced price, I don’t mind the Opelka moneyline here as an alternative approach.
WTA Cluj Napoca
Kontaveit vs Krunic
Approx. 9.30pm AEDT
If she weren’t still in the fight for the WTA finals, would Anett Kontaveit be making the quick back-up?
The Estonian has made the trip from Russia to Romania in her quest for as many ranking points as possible. Whilst I was critical of her best weeks of the year coming in the lead up to grand slams when field strength was at its weakest, she has put together some impressive tennis over the last couple of months, with title wins in Ostrava and Moscow, whilst also reaching the quarter final in Indian Wells. Her only spot of vulnerability was a below-par performance against Madison Brengle on the quick back-up from Ostrava, and following that match she decided to withdraw from the tournament in Chicago. She got out of jail in the Moscow final, coming from a set and 0-4 down against a very nervy Ekaterina Alexandrova 4-6 6-4 7-5, with the Russian serving for the match in the decider. Kontaveit is now back at her peak career ranking of 14, as she continues on her quest to qualify for the field of 8 at the WTA finals.
She has been gifted the late tournament start to offset some of the travel issues, however, looks to be quite short here against erratic, yet talented, qualifier Aleksandra Krunic. Krunic skipped a large chunk of the tennis tour last year and is on her way back toward the Top 100, needing some solid performances in the weeks ahead to avoid needing to play in Australian Open qualifying. She kicked things off here with two incredibly solid performances, dropping only 5 games across the 4 sets. If Kontaveit is slightly off her best physical level, Krunic is the type of athletic player capable of making life difficult for her.
As Krunic can be incredibly hot and incredibly cold, and sometimes both in the course of the same match, I will split this bet up across two selections, backing her to win a set and to win the match.
Value: Krunic to win $5.90 (1 Unit)
Krunic to win a set (1 Unit)
$2.60
