The 2019 Manikato Stakes headlines racing at Moonee Valley on Friday, October 25th, which kicks off Cox Plate weekend in Melbourne!
We have a field of 11 sprinters lining up over the 1200m, led by star three-year-old colt Bivouac, who comes down from Sydney after winning the Golden Rose.
The track is currently rated a Good 4 with the rail in the True position, and even though there is rain predicted throughout the day, I suspect it will remain in the Good range given there's only up to 2mm forecast.
We've provided an in-depth preview of the race below, with our speed map, runner-by-runner comments and top four selections!
2019 Manikato Stakes Preview & Betting Tips
Speed map & tempo
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Leader/ On-Pace
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Forward of Midfield
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Back of Midfield
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Backmarker
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Bivouac
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Rock Magic
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The Bostonian
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Trope
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Vital Silver
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Meryl
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Winter Bride
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Anaheed
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Ashlor
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Faatinah
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Loving Gaby
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It's a fascinating speed map this one because (9) Bivouac has drawn the inside, which can be a bit of a death trap at Moonee Valley. He's sat no worse than 4th in his four runs this preparation, and he's sat outside the leader in his past three. I highly doubt Bowman will want to be any worse than one back the rail and I'm actually expecting him to kick through and lead. But there's no shortage of speed in the race! (10) Anaheed will look to come across from barrier 11, as will (5) Vital Silver from barrier 9. I'm tipping one of those two horses will be caught three-deep without cover. If Anaheed springs the lids and accelarates across to sit outside the leader, then Vital Silver might struggle to slot in, but if Vital Silver is quicker earlier then he might keep Anaheed posted. (11) Loving Gaby came from back in the field first up when winning here, but sat third in the run last start. From barrier 2, similar to Bivoauc, I doubt they'll want to get caught too far back on the rail. (8) Meryl draws well in barrier 4 and should take up her customary position on speed, so with both her and Loving Gaby drawn inside (1) Rock Magic, he could find himself three-wide, though I suspect he wil have cover. (2) The Bostonian will sit midfield with (4) Ashlor and (3) Faatinah to his outside. Faatinah has settled up near the lead in the past but I feel they'll slot in midfield tonight. (7) Winter Bride has also led in the past but she was poor out of the barriers first up and settled last. She's versatile so if she doesn't spring the lids, she'll be back in the field. (6) Trope is the sole backmarker in the race and he looks perfectly drawn in 10. He'll let it all unfold ahead of him and probably just get into the three-wide running line to slingshot off the bend.
Runner-by-runner analysis
(1) Rock Magic: Now a 10YO, comes into this first up and while he has a reasonable fresh record, including a win in the G3 Northam Stakes off a 50-week break last prep, but has never placed in his four starts at Moonee Valley. Draws well, should find himself with cover, but looks well tested even in a thin field.
(2) The Bostonian: Likely to be back in traffic. Was sound first up here over 1000m behind Nature Strip and again behind Trekking last start. Both of those horses ran well in The Everest and 1200m is his pet distance, with four wins from six starts. He'd have to rate a chance coming into this but I've got others ahead.
(3) Faatinah: Won well here over 1000m first up but that's his go, with six of his eight career wins coming first up from a spell. He was only beaten half-a-length by Nature Strip in the Moir last start, which has proven a good form race, but he's yet to win from seven starts when third up and has only placed once from eight starts in Group 1 company. Happy to take him on.
(4) Ashlor: Has had seven starts in blacktype races and is yet to even place in one. He was beaten by Faatinah two starts ago and was well beaten after having every chance last start behind Trekking. Gets a stack of gear changes so they've thrown the kitchen sink at him but I can't see him featuring in the finish.
(5) Vital Silver: I think he's big odds tonight and one of the better each way chances in the race at $26. He was terrific first up at Flemington when beaten just 2.2L by Sunlight, Santa Ana lane and Zoutori in the Gilgai Stakes. That's a seriously hot form race and he goes super second up, with three wins from four starts. Lats prep was the only time he didn't win second up and he was beaten only 0.5L by G1 winner Galaxy Star on that occasion. The barrier is a bit tricky for him and there is plenty of speed in the race, but he's won six races over 1400m so he'll have no problems running the trip. The Perth form has stood up extremely well in Melbourne recently so he shouldn't be discounted at all.
(6) Trope: He's going to get things set up for him nicely here. He's a horse I've got a very good opinion of and both runs this prep have been super. First up he was beaten a nose by Deprive, who has since won again since and is undefeated at Randwick, and last start he ran 2nd to Arcadia Queen (I wouldn't be dropping off despite her poor Everest showing). Blinkers go on first time tonight and as mentioned, there looks to be plenty of speed on to set it up for him coming from the back. He'll just take a hold at the start, let it all unfold ahead of him, get into a three-wide running line and then slingshot off the bend. He'll be charging late.
(7) Winter Bride: Struggled to get out of the gates first up and that cost her any chance, though she looked tested anyway. If she were to ping the lids she could lead this but she obviously needs to jump. Even if she were to jump, there looks a fair bit of pressure up front which would probably bring her undone. Hard to have her.
(8) Meryl: Not beaten all that far by Nature Strip here two starts back but had her chance last start at Caulfield and was beaten 3.7L. She's drawn well in barrier 4 so she should get a good run just behind the leaders, and she has won her only start over the track and distance, but I couldn't see her winning a race like this.
(9) Bivoauc: Probably the best three-year-old in the country. What do we do with him at $1.95? He's won three of his four starts this preparation and the one defeat came on Heavy ground, which is important to note. He bounced back with a dominant victory over Yes Yes Yes in the Run To The Rose and then fought that same horse off tenaciously in the Golden Rose last time out. Drops back to 1200m, which probably suits better than 1400m due to his brilliance. There's a few things to note tonight though. Firstly, barrier 1 can be bad at Moonee Valley. If he is to miss the kick, he'll find it hard to win, so he needs to jump well. There also looks to be good speed, so does Bowman try to kick up and keep them out, or is he happy to take the box seat, in which case he needs luck on the turn. Finally, if the rain comes before the race, is that going to suit him? Unlikely. But then on the other hand, the horse he beat just smoked them in The Everest and broke the track record, and this isn't the Everest, it's not even close. So if the form runs true, he should prove way too good for this lot.
(10) Anaheed: Nice winner of the Blue Sapphire Stakes at Caulfield last start, which she found much easier after racing against the likes of Funstar, Probabeel, Libertini, Exceedence and Bivouac in Sydney. The map isn't kind to her but if she ran to her best, she'd be competitive with the featherweight.
(11) Loving Gaby: Seemingly disappointing last start but she bumped into what I think is a very smart one in California Zimbol. Prior to that she was impressive winning here first up over this track and distance. I think she'll sit right behind Bivouac in the run or Williams may try and stay off the rail to get out of traffic earlier. I certainly wouldn't be dismissing her because I think the California Zimbol form is strong and with 51kg, she's weighted very well. She'd need Bivouac to be below his best though.
Selections
(9) Bivouac has to go on top. There are definite queries so on that, the $1.95 looks short, but then you look at the strength of the form behind him and suddenly the $1.95 looks more than acceptable. I just keep coming back to the fact he had the measure of Yes Yes Yes, who then won The Everest, and this is nowhere near the strength of The Everest. So if he gets a good run, he should be winning. I think (5) Vital Silver is the big value at $26 after a terrific first up run. He's got a great second up record and the WA form has proven strong. (6) Trope will get the race set up for him and he's a horse I have plenty of time for. (11) Loving Gaby also comes out of what looks a very good form race and isn't without a chance at all.
1st (9) BIVOUAC
2nd (5) VITAL SILVER
3rd (6) TROPE
4th (11) LOVING GABY
Value: (5) Vital Silver $26
