Week 2 of the 2019 AFL Finals continues on Saturday night with the Lions taking on the Giants. Kick off will be at approximately 7:50pm at the Gabba.
We’re providing multiple tips play for each of the semi-finals this weekend. We’ll be kicking things off with our best head-to-head play, then we’ll follow up with a couple of prop bets that we believe are also great value.
Make sure you check out our AFL Tips Page regularly to find all our other AFL related betting tips throughout the finals series!
AFL Finals Week 2 Betting Tips
Brisbane Lions vs GWS Giants
Saturday, 7:25pm AEST, Gabba
The Lions earned the double chance by finishing second on the ladder and will welcome the Giants to the Gabba for the second semi-final on Saturday night. It’s do or die, so it should be an exciting match for the neutral fan!
Brisbane Lions
The Lions started well against the Tigers last weekend but couldn’t quite capitalise and put the necessary early scoreboard pressure on. Momentum quickly swung after quarter time and the rest is history. That made it consecutive losses (both to the Tigers) for the Lions, which could leave them a little bit rattled heading into this crucial win or go home clash with the Giants. Lachie Neale is likely to get A LOT of attention from expert tagger Matt De Boer, so it’s important some of the other key Lions midfielders step up and put their best foot forward.
GWS Giants
There were many Giants doubters heading into the final’s series, and we were one of them. They were in really poor form at the end of the home and away season and were up against one of the form sides in the Bulldogs. However, they absolutely dominated their elimination final from start to finish to record an impressive 58-point win. The Giants must now back it up on the road when they head to the Gabba, which looms as a much tougher task than what they faced last weekend.
History
The Giants lead the head-to-head count 6-3 since their inception in 2012. The Lions won their first two meetings, the Giants then won the next six before the Lions snapped that streak in Round 16 this year with a 20-point win in Sydney.
Last five meetings:
2019 R16 – GWS (74) lost to Brisbane (94)
2018 R14 – Brisbane (82) lost to GWS (109)
2018 R6 – GWS (77) defeated Brisbane (43)
2017 R14 – Brisbane (86) lost to GWS (143)
2016 R17 – Brisbane (67) lost to GWS (143)
Prediction
It’s an interesting match we’ve got here with the Lions going in as around eight-point favourites. The Lions got the better of the Giants in their match earlier this season and while the finals are a totally different beast, we believe history will repeat itself. The Lions have had a far better season than their opponents and have made the Gabba somewhat of a fortress. With the home crowd on their side we have the Lions winning this and covering the spread in the process.
Brisbane Lions -8.5
$1.91
Fantasy Market
Our favourite prop bet of the night is Lachie Neale to go under his fantasy line of 90.5 at BetEasy. While Neale has had two fantastic matches in a row, both of which came against the Tigers, we expect him to be a lot quieter against the Giants on Saturday night. Why? Matt De Boer. The Giants tagger will wear him like an absolute glove and will sacrifice his own game to make sure Neale doesn’t have a big impact. Neale may average a bit more than 90.5 for the Lions this season, but he won’t get near it if De Boer goes to him, which by all accounts he will. Lock it in.
Neale Under 90.5 Fantasy
$1.88
Goalscorer Market
Another market we’re in love with is Charlie Cameron to kick 3+ goals. He’s had a fantastic season, earning himself a spot in the All Australian side as a forward pocket. Cameron was kept quiet in his last two outings against the Tigers, but only because Dylan Grimes (also All Australian) was marking him like his life depended on it. The Giants don’t have a small defender of Grimes quality that is capable to keep Cameron down for four quarters, so we expect him to hit the scoreboard in a big way. Pretty happy to play these odds at Sportsbet.
Charlie Cameron 3+ Goals
$2.20
