There’s already been some terrific games to kick off the first round of the new 2019 AFL season, but we aren’t done yet! Some of the best games of Round 1 have been saved until last, highlighted by the intriguing encounter between the Giants and the Bombers. Below we’ve previewed that game, plus the two others and provided our best bets + value plays for each game. As always, good luck to everyone following!
We'll be focusing on the Saturday slate in this article, but if you want previews and tips for the rest of the Round 1 action, make sure you head to our AFL Tips Page.
AFL Round 1 Sunday Betting Tips
St Kilda Saints vs Gold Coast Suns (Sunday 1:10pm AEDT)
First up on Sunday we’ve got the Saints hosting the Suns at Marvel Stadium in Melbourne. These teams met just once last season in what turned out to be a thrilling comeback win for the Saints. They outscored the Suns 33-0 in the final term to come home with a two-point win (80-78) in Queensland.
The Saints really couldn’t have had a worse start to their 2019 campaign. Three key players in Jack Steven, Dylan Roberton, and Jake Carlisle have all had an unfortunate couple of months, with the latter two expected to miss extended periods of time. The positives for the Saints include the suspected growth of Jack Billings and Jade Gresham, who have the potential to form one of the AFL’s deadliest small forward combinations.
If the Saints have had a poor off-season/lead-up to Round 1, then the Suns have had an absolute nightmare. They’ve lost just about half of their list, including arguably their two best players in Steven May and Tom Lynch. It’s really hard to find positives to say about the Suns at this point in time, let’s just hope some of their young talent turn into solid players to keep their club afloat during this trying period.
All things considered; we expect the Saints to be too strong for the Suns in their season opener. Whilst we feel the Saints will be one of the weaker teams in the league this season, we still expect them to be far too strong for the Suns. In terms of a value play, we like Jack Steele to rack up 30+ touches at really nice odds. His role changed in the back half of last season, which saw him find 31, 29, and 35 touches in the final three games of the season.
Jack Steele 30+ Disposals $4.50
GWS Giants vs Essendon Bombers (Sunday 3:20pm AEDT)
Second up on the Sunday slate sees the Giants host the Bombers in Sydney in what looms as the game of the day. The Bombers mopped the floor with the Giants in the corresponding fixture last season, defeating them by 35 points (95-60) at Spotless Stadium.
The Giants enter this season with far less hype around them compared to previous years. It may be to do with their final’s struggles, but they still boast one of the stronger lists in the competition when fit and healthy. Expect Stephen Coniglio to continue to improve and earn elite status in the game, now with more midfield time as a result of Dylan Shiel’s departure (Essendon).
On the contrary, the Bombers have a whole lot of hype surrounding their potential this season. With another year under the belt for their young stars, a few key pieces back from injury, as well as the Dylan Shiel addition, it’s easy to understand where all the noise is coming from. They look a really good side on paper and should be in the mix to play finals this season. The only question that remains is can they live up to the expectations?
We’re going the home side to cover the spread once again here. The Giants are extremely tough to beat at home and have a list that are all either in or about to reach their prime. We expect them to take care of a Bombers side that we expect to come out of the blocks a tad sluggish.
As mentioned above, we expect Coniglio to take his game to another level this season with even more midfield time. For this reason, we’re keen to take him to get 30+ touches at juicy odds first up.
Stephen Coniglio 30+ Disposals $2.80
Fremantle Dockers vs North Melbourne (Sunday 6:20pm AEDT)
The final game of the round features the Fremantle Dockers hosting North Melbourne at Optus Stadium in Perth. The Kangaroos stormed home against the Dockers in this fixture last season, outscoring them 50-23 in the second half to record a 28-point victory (86-58).
The Dockers lost one of their key midfielders in Lachie Neale (Brisbane) in the off-season, which is sure to leave a hole in their rotations. They were able to gain a key signature in Jesse Hogan, but as we all know he’s missing at least the first round due to breaking team rules. There were also concerns around Nat Fyfe’s fitness considering he missed both JLT matches, but he’s expected to lead the side out on Sunday and is by all reports fully fit.
North Melbourne enter this season as one of the genuine unknowns. Most experts have them in their bottom eight, but they’ve been overachievers for some time now, meaning a finals berth wouldn’t totally surprise. They’ve also named a few new faces for their season opener, with Brad Scott looking to freshen up what has been an ageing list for some time.
This one is arguably the toughest match to split in our view. However, we have taken a liking to the total points going under the 178.5 offered by most agencies. The last couple of times they’ve faced have resulted in very low scoring affairs, which we don’t expect to change too much with each team’s lack of offensive firepower. In terms of a value play, we quite like the either team by 15 or less market, as this seems a pretty even contest on paper.
Either Team By 15 or Less $2.63
Total Points Under 178.5
$1.90
