With the first two games of the 2019 AFL season in the books, we now take a look at the four games set to play out on Saturday. Check out our best plays from each of the four games below and good luck to everyone following our comprehensive AFL tips this season!
We'll be focusing on the Saturday slate in this article, but if you want previews and tips for the rest of the Round 1 action, make sure you head to our AFL Tips Page.
AFL Round 1 Saturday Betting Tips
Melbourne Demons vs Port Adelaide Power (Saturday 1:45pm AEDT)
First up on the Saturday slate we’ve got the Demons hosting the Power at the MCG. These teams only met once last year, coming in Round 14 at the Adelaide Oval. The Power won that contest by 10 points at home, although a lot has changed for both teams since that clash.
Port Adelaide come into their season opener with 11 confirmed changes from their Round 23 team against the Bombers last season. They’re expected to have six players make their club debut, with four of them making their AFL debuts. It’s a decent shake up for a Power team that hasn’t changed too much over the past couple of seasons, but in what looms as a do or die season for Ken Hinkley, it seems it’s a necessary shake up.
The Demons come into their first game of the season with heightened expectations after their deep finals run in 2018, where they lost to the eventual champion West Coast Eagles in the Preliminary Final. They made a few changes in the off-season, headlined by the departure of Jesse Hogan (Fremantle) who’s found himself in a bit of hot water of late. With another year of Simon Goodwin at the helm, we expect more of the same for the Demons this year.
While the Power should be competitive this year with the list they have, we expect them to take a few games to get going with so many changes to their best 22. Demons were great at home last season and should be too good for the Power in the season opener.
We also like a play on Tom Rockliff to get 30+ touches at great odds. He’s coming off a 40 possession game in his last JLT match and will get a lot more midfield time with no Polec (North Melbourne), Wingard (Hawthorn), and Wines (injured).
Tom Rockliff 30+ Disposals $4.50
Melbourne Demons -22.5
$1.90
Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks (Saturday 4:35pm AEDT)
Second on the slate and the first twilight game of the season will see the Crows host the Hawks at the brilliant Adelaide Oval. The Hawks were all over the Crows in their only meeting in 2018, defeating them by 56 points at the MCG in Round 13.
The Crows will be looking to bounce back from what was a really disappointing 2018 campaign. After finishing as runners up in 2017, the Crows battled through countless injuries among other issues, which really prevented them from reaching their potential last season. Their pre-season form was solid, winning against both the Power (17 points) and the Giants (18) in their two outings.
The Hawks were surprisingly good last season up until the finals where they went out in straight sets. Their 2019 campaign couldn’t have gotten off to a worse start, with 2018 Brownlow Medalist Tom Mitchell breaking his leg in a pre-season training session. It’ll be interesting to see the adjustments Clarkson makes to fill Mitchell’s void, which seems like mission impossible when you consider the amazing year the ball-magnet had in 2018.
We see this game as a terrific opportunity for the Crows to get their season headed in the right direction from day one. The Hawks will field a much younger and inexperienced team than in recent years, which will include a few new faces that will likely need a solid month or two to learn the systems and structures. Simply put, we expect an experienced and rejuvenated Crows list to get the job done at home against the Hawks on Saturday night.
In terms of a value play, we’re interested in taking on Jaeger O’Meara to clock up 30+ touches at juicy odds. By all reports he’s in the best shape of his career and his pre-season form definitely backed that up. There’s also 35+ possessions up for grabs that Tom Mitchell would usually get, which we expect Jaeger to take advantage of.
Jaeger O'Meara 30+ Disposals $3.10
Adelaide Crows -19.5
$1.90
Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles (Saturday 7:20pm AEDT)
The first Saturday night game of the season will be in Brisbane with the Lions hosting the Eagles at the GABBA. The Eagles defeated the Lions in their only encounter last season, coming out on top by 26 points at the GABBA.
The Lions enter this season with a fair bit of hype about them and rightly so when you consider how much their young group improved last season. They didn’t get many wins on the board in 2018, but they were there abouts in most of their games, which has many believe they could easily double their win tally in season 2019. Lachie Neale will be a welcome addition to the young midfield brigade, acting as a straight swap for the departed Dayne Beams.
The Eagles had an absolute dream season in 2019, finishing it off with a well-deserved Premiership. They haven’t made too many changes to their roster since, which is easy to understand when you consider how well they went with their current group. One major concern will be how well they’ll come out of the blocks, considering they had the shorter pre-season and may face the dreaded ‘Premiership hangover’.
The Eagles enter as favourites and rightly so, however, we do see them coming out of the blocks a little bit slow on the back of last season’s success. They also face a tough ask of playing away to a talented young Lions team that will be raring to go on Saturday. For these reasons, we’re keen on taking the Lions to cover their spread at home. Further, if you’re looking for a bit more value than you get on a spread bet, we like the Lions to win by 1-39, as we can’t see this being a blowout either way.
Brisbane Lions 1-39 $3.30
Brisbane Lions +13.5
$1.90
Western Bulldogs vs Sydney Swans (Saturday 8:20pm AEDT)
The last game of the slate to kick off will feature the Bulldogs hosting the Swans at the newly named Marvel Stadium in Melbourne. The Swans defeated the Bulldogs by seven points in their only clash last season, which was also at Marvel Stadium (then known as Etihad Stadium).
The Bulldogs will be hoping for a bounce back year in 2019. They faced a lot of adversity last campaign, mainly through injury, which largely derailed their finals aspirations. However, they’re now back fit and healthy with a fresh slate and will be eager to get out on Marvel stadium in their new kits (as bad as they are) and try and begin their new campaign with a win.
The Swans disappointed many with their finish to season 2018, which in large will be seen as a missed opportunity. However, many are predicting them to fall even further in 2019, with their ageing list and lack of 25-29 year old talent worrying a lot of experts. Whether or not this will be the case remains to be seen, but any team with Buddy Franklin spearheading the attack will always be a dangerous proposition.
This is probably the hardest game of the round to get a read on with so many unknowns surrounding both teams. However, at first look at the markets we feel the value lies with the Bulldogs spread, as they’re always competitive on the fast deck at Marvel and will likely cause the Swans trouble with their foot speed. We’re taking their spread for safety, but if you’re searching for value then we recommend taking them outright.
Western Bulldogs Win $2.30
Western Bulldogs +8.5
$1.90
