What a week its been in Australian Cricket. Hard to conjure a betting preview when the Aussie Test team is in such shambles at the moment. If you’ve been living under a rock for the past week, Steve Smith and David Warner have lost their positions at Captain and Vice-Captain respectively, and along with Cameron Bancroft, all three have been put on a plane back to Australia after a ball tampering scandal.
In the midst of all the controversy, the 3rd Test was finished, in which Australia were beaten comfortably after a dismal fourth innings performance with the bat. The series now moves to Johannesburg for the 4th and final Test, where Australia will be hoping to salvage something from the horror series against South Africa.
Obviously, no Warner, Bancroft or Smith for the 4th Test means that the Aussies will see some changes to their side. Matt Renshaw is one of the obvious opening replacements and should slot right into the team. Peter Handscomb was the original reserve batsmen in the squad and should take Smith’s spot in the middle order. As for the other opening position, Australia have a few options. Joe Burns has been shipped to South Africa after a good performance in the Shield Final and could slot into the remaining opening position.
Along with Burns, Glenn Maxwell was also added to the Aussie squad. If the selection committee decide to go with Maxwell, we could see Shaun Marsh elevated to the top of the Australian order. We think Burns will likely get the nod after a ridiculous Shield season which saw him amass 725 runs in seven matches for the Bulls.
Wicket-keeper Tim Paine has been appointed the new Test captain as he seemed the only logical choice amongst a team full of relatively inexperienced players. Paine has a lot of experience captaining at state level, but with the added responsibility, one wonders if his wicket keeping or valuable middle order batting will suffer.
There are no such issues on the South African side. Not only did they win the 3rd Test comfortably, they have an embarrassment of riches to call upon should they wish to make a change in J-Berg. Exciting young quick Lungi Ngidi could be given another opportunity if the Proteas need an extra quick, but with Vernon Philander and Kagiso Rabada arguably the best two quicks on the planet at the moment and Morne Morkel coming off a 9-wicket performance in Cape Town, we doubt we’ll see any changes made to the bowling unit.
TIP: Kagiso Rabada man of the match - $6 at Ladbrokes
Temba Bavuma was an inclusion into the middle order for South Africa in Cape Town and while he failed with the bat with scores of just 1 and 5, there’s really no pressure eon the South African selectors to drop him here with the top order in such good nick. We think South Africa go in unchanged to J-Berg, and it’s hard to bet against them either way.
So many distractions would be swirling around the Australian camp at the moment, it’s hard to see them being 100% focused on cricket, even with the departure of Smith and co. South Africa has plummeted to just $1.45 to win and although we’d like to find some value in the Aussies here, we have to side with the home nation.
TIP: South Africa to win - $1.45 at Sportsbet
Joe Burns form in the Sheffield Shield can’t go unnoticed. The Queenslander averaged 55.76 over his 14 innings for the Bulls, which was the highest average of any of the top fifty run scorers not already in the Test squad. Wont have faced the calibre of bowlers that he’ll be facing on Thursday but the Gabba pitch should have prepared him well for some fierce pace and bounce. Great chance to prove himself here and solidify one of two opening positions that could be available for the long term.
TIP: Joe Burns top Australian run scorer first innings - $5.50 at Sportsbet
