Betting on the 2018 AFL Brownlow Medal is always a tricky affair at this time of the year. It’s a long season ahead and there’s always a lot of preseason hype around the usual suspects. Injuries, suspensions and, of course, form, will play a massive role over the 2018 AFL season and unless you have a crystal ball, it’s impossible to know what will happen.
What we can do however is look for some early value in the markets and try to improve our position throughout the year. Brownlow betting markets are open all the way through the season until those votes are read on Brownlow night, so the information is there in front of us to try and work our way to a profitable position at the end of the season.
The three favourites this season are arguably the three best players in the competition – Dusty Martin ($5.00 at Sportsbet), Nat Fyfe ($7.00 at Ladbrokes) and Patrick Dangerfield ($7.50 at CrownBet). While it would be easy just to tip one of them to win it, it’s hard to find a lot of value on those prices in March. A lot could happen between now and September. Nat Fyfe has been the big mover preseason, after showing some excellent preseason form and fitness, so those who took double-figure odds probably found some value there.
Instead of backing the big three, another approach might be to find some value at bigger odds now, and look to back the favourites if their price drifts during the season.
If Dangerfield is out of form, tagged or perhaps injured, then there are a couple of other Geelong players that might be worth considering. Gary Ablett Jnr may be 33 years of age, but he’s still one of the greatest footballers of all time. Is he going to be able to play a full year? Maybe not, but you can get a price of $34 at CrownBet which is more than double the price at other books, so certainy worth a nibble for a proven vote getter.
Another Cat who might benefit from all the attention on the superstar trio of Ablett, Selwood and Danger is the forgotten warrior Mitch Duncan. The other three are going to get all the attention and all the taggers, yet Mitch Duncan is arguably in his prime, wins more of the ball, plays midfield and isn’t injury prone. I think he’s a great speculative bet at a huge price of $126 at CrownBet.
Away from the Cats, if the Crows have a big year then Rory Sloane is going to be the one picking up votes. He had a mixed year last year with form and injury, so this might be his year to bounce back at $19 at CrownBet.
We also have to look at GWS who are going to win plenty of games this year. Josh Kelly looks the standout Giant but at $12 at Sportsbet, he looks a little short in the betting market. Instead I prefer to take the bigger odds of Dylan Shiel $41 at Sportsbet and Callan Ward $51 at CrownBet.
By taking a position on a few of these outsiders, we can look to back other players or lay our bets during the year to build a green book. Keep an eye on Before You Bet throughout the year as once again we will be providing our weekly Brownlow tracker with our vote predictions for every match, running leaderboard and our thoughts for Brownlow betting tips and plays during the 2018 AFL season!
