As it does every year, the 2018 AFL Season will kick off with a massive bang this Thursday night as the reigning premier Richmond Tigers host the Carlton Blues in the season opener from the MCG. The game will kick off at 7.25pm starting this week and carrying on throughout the season, Before You Bet will be providing a stand alone tipping article for the marquee Friday (or in Round 1 case, Thursday) night clash of the round.
Both teams will be looking to kick their 2018 season off with a win, but all of the pressure will be on the Tigers as they come into the game as hot 30-point favourites. They will, however, be without some of their key players for the season opener as Daniel Rioli, Nathan Broad, Dion Prestia and Bachar Houli have all fought niggles through the pre-season.
Carlton will have their own issues in the injury department as Sam Docherty and Sam Rowe are both set to miss the game. The Blues had a high turnover of players throughout the offseason, with 13 players either retiring, traded or shown the door. The loss of Bryce Gibbs will be a big loss but should open the door for youngsters in the likes of Patrick Cripps, Jacob Waitering and particularly Caleb Marchbank to have an increased role in the team. Marchbank floating across half back with no Bryce Gibbs and no Sam Docherty in Round 1 should collect a ton of the ball, as the blues will have to generate the 53 disposals per game that the two experienced half backs generated last year.
Marchbank avearged 15 disposals per game last year so even if the bookies are harsh on us and bump is line all the way up to 20, we still think he covers easily.
TIP: Caleb Marchbank OVER total disposals (up to 20 disposal line) – Pending line and price
Dustin Martin absolutely dominated this fixture last season, racking up 33 disposals and snagging a game high four goals. The win for the Tigers was the fourth season opening win in a row for the Tigers, and at a price tag of just $1.18, there’s not much value in them making it five in a row. We definitely think the Tigers will win this match. Although we have to take pre-season results with a grain of salt, they absolutely dominated their two games, beating the Bombers and Kangaroos by a combined margin of 157 points. If a small bet takes your fancy, you can’t look past the great Ladbrokes special, offering $2 for the Tigers to win with a max bet of $20.
TIP: Richmond to win - $2 at Ladbrokes ($20 max bet)
The line currently stands at around 30 at most betting sites, which we actually like in favour of the Blues. Although the Tigers ended up winning last season’s Round 1 clash by 43 points, the Blues were fairly competitive up until the last quarter, and when the two sides met in Round 14, the Tigers were triumphant by just 26 points.
Again, it was pre-season, but the Blues looked really impressive in their two JLT games, knocking off the Saints in a dominant performance before edging out the Hawks in a close five-point game. Tensions are always high between these two old rivals and we think that plays into the hands of a closer game.
TIP: Carlton +30.5 - $1.92 at Ladbrokes
