The 2017 NFL season finale has arrived. Super Bowl LI has the number one ranked offense in the form of the Atlanta Falcons vs the number one ranked defense in the form of the New England Patriots. Will Tom Brady get his fifth Super Bowl ring or is it Matt Ryan’s time to shine? Don’t miss our 2017 NFL Super Bowl betting tips.
2017 NFL Super Bowl Betting Tips
New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons (Monday 6th February 10:30am)
For all the Roman’s out there, Super Bowl LI rolls right off the tongue. For anybody else, not from the middle ages it’s a little confusing. The team at BeforeYouBet have taken all the guess work out of it for you. The 51st Super Bowl is scheduled to be played at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas on Monday 6th February.
The AFC Champions the New England Patriots play the NFC Champions the Atlanta Falcons. The designated home team is an annual rotation between the AFC and NFC. The Falcons elected to wear their red home jerseys and the Patriots will wear their white jerseys. That’s the red guy’s vs the white guys! for all the girlfriends out there forced to watch the Super Bowl.
The national anthem will be performed by country music singer Luke Bryan. He is the first male to sing the anthem since Billy Joel in 2007. Lady Gaga should make the halftime show very interesting, especially with all the Donald Trump controversy. One last interesting fact is the cost of a 30-second commercial. Which comes in at $5.02 million up from last years $5.01 million. Now onto the Betting.
Head to Head and Line Betting
This is a very intriguing matchup between the number one scoring offense and the number one ranked defense. The Atlanta Falcons averaged a league high 33.8 points per game on offense and the Patriots allowed a league low 15.6 points per game on defense. In a lot of ways, it feels like last year’s super bowl matchup. A flashy NFC team with an MVP quarterback who leads the NFL in scoring! Vs an experienced AFC team with a veteran hall of fame quarterback and a #1 ranked defense. I was seduced by the “flashy” team last year and it cost me. The main thing I learnt was, when it comes to the super bowl, experience counts.
The Patriots have 21 players with prior super bowl experience. The Falcons have just 4. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is going to his 36th playoff game and 7th super bowl. Meanwhile the Falcons head coach Dan Quinn is in his second season. Then there’s the quarterback comparison and it’s not even close. Tom Brady will be starting his 34th post season game and Matt Ryan his 7th. There are many angles you can look at before betting this game but “experience” feels like the most important factor.
Tip: New England Patriots to win - $1.67 at CrownBet
Over or Under
The total match points are currently sitting at 58.5. If that holds it would be the highest over/under in Super Bowl history. There are a few reasons why this total is so high. The first reason is the fact NRG stadium has a retractable roof. This takes the weather element out of the question. Although there have been rumours this week that they would leave the roof open? Another reason for such a high total is the amount of points both the Falcons and the Patriots have been able to score in the postseason. However, both the Patriots and Falcons defense haven’t allowed more than 21 points in those games. The final reason is the public.
The NFL super bowl is the most bet-on sporting event in the world and the public influence the amount the total is set on in a big way. They always bet the OVER. This doesn’t guarantee the total game score is going to be UNDER but it does give us extra value if we like the under.
Stopping Atlanta’s biggest playmaker Julio Jones will be a key factor in keeping the score low. If the Patriots can hold Julio Jones to 7 receptions for 77 yards like they did against Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown, then I feel the game score will stay under 58.5.
Prediction: Atlanta 27 New England 28
Tip: Total Game Score Under 58.5 - $1.90 at CrownBet
First Touchdown Scorer
This is one of the many markets you can bet on Super Bowl day. It’s a fun market to bet on but we would not recommend betting your entire bankroll on it. However, we can increase our chances of winning by looking at matchups and doing our research. There is a case to be made for betting only Atlanta players. That’s if you believe there will be a touchdown on the opening drive. The reason being the coin toss decides what team kicks off and what team receives. If New England win the toss they always choose to kick-off while Atlanta have a better chance to do either. It’s only a small edge but it’s worth talking about.
The Falcons have shown some venerability on defense against tight ends. In the divisional playoff game, they allowed a seven-yard touchdown pass to Seattle Seahawks tight end Jimmy Graham. Then in the Championship game the Packers tight end Jared Cook also scored. That makes 6’6’’ tight end Martellus Bennett of the Patriots a solid pick.
Tip: Martellus Bennett First Touchdown - $17 at Sportsbet
The Patriots will be double teaming Atlanta’s wide receiver Julio Jones. This makes Duel threat running back Devonta Freeman a smart play. He is a very dangerous running back that can also play in the slot/receiver position. Freeman had 45 rushing yards and 80 receiving yards against Seattle and he’s also no stranger to the end zone with 11 touchdowns to his name.
Tip: Devonta Freeman First Touchdown - $9 at Sportsbet
2017 Super Bowl MVP
The Super Bowl's most valuable player award is chosen by a panel of 16 football writers/broadcasters and by a fan-vote during the game. The media panels account for 80% of the vote tally and the fan’s make up the other 20%. It’s not always the quarterback that takes out the award. Over the past three years a linebacker has collected the MVP twice. However, the quarterback is the most likely position to win the MVP, but the numbers are not as lopsided as you think. Over the past 51 years a QB has won it 27 times or 53%.
After picking New England to win the Super Bowl my choice for MVP is obvious. Tom Brady has won the MVP 3 out of the 4 times the Patriots won the Super Bowl. Despite the fact, he is 39 year’s old he still had one of the most productive season ever. Including 28 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions in the regular season. A win against Atlanta would give him five Super Bowl rings, one more than Joe Montana. After the NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, suspended Tom Brady for four games, he has played with a chip on his shoulder. I can see the commissioner handing the Patriots QB the MVP trophy on Monday afternoon.
Tip: Tom Brady to win Super Bowl MVP - $1.91 at Sportsbet
