Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Manikato Stakes Night at Moonee Valley on Friday, October 27th.
We have an eight-race card under lights in the lead up to Cox Plate Day on Saturday, with the track rated a Good 4 and the rail in the True position for both meetings.
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In Episode 6 of the Before You Bet Podcast our horse racing specialist @Tim_Tips chats about the weekend's action at Randwick and Moonee Valley and previews and offers tips from all the biggest Australian horse races for this Friday and Saturday! Listen to the podcast on the media player below, or you can find the Before You Bet podcast on iTunes!
We have comments and betting tips for every race on the card below.
MOONEE VALLEY RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 7 Vega Magic
Best Value: Race 1 Lord Durante
Race 1
Just a small field of seven runners over the 2040m to get us started and it looks a really suitable race for DODGING BULLETS, who is just about the only horse showing any decent form at present. He ran a luckless 3rd in the Bairnsdale Cup two starts ago before finishing 3rd to Odeon last start with 60kg. Steps up to the 2000m now and drops down to 55kg. Draws well and should get a great run up on the speed and on current form he looks the one to beat. LORD DURANTE is a good chance in this and I think they’ve priced him wrong. He will lead this field easily and should be able to run the race to suit himself. He did a similar thing two starts ago over this track and distance and ran 2nd, beaten 0.4L. He’s got a great record at this track and distance and with a soft lead in a small field, he’ll give a really good sight at $11.
TIP: Dodging Bullets / Lord Durante EW (Best Value)
Race 2
Going to take on the favourite RIB EYE here. He led all the way on an on-pace favoured Moe track last start in BM78 grade, and I suspect they’ll use similar tactics today from the good draw. He’s now won two from three at the distance and he’ll get his chance again but I just prefer others at the prices. CARRAIG AONAIR is deep into his preparation but continues to run very well. He comes out of a strong form race last start when finishing 2nd behind Silvera. That horse has since gone on to run well again in stronger company, while the horse that ran 3rd (Violate) has since won. He should be right up on the pace from barrier 3 and the stable is absolutely flying. MASTER RESET resumed with a fair run behind Pure Pride in stronger company and his second up record is outstanding with four wins from six starts. He’s got a good record at the track and distance and if he gets across outside the leader from his wide barrier then he’ll be in this for a long way. ROCK AWAY won at $101 first up over this track and distance and I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see him run well again at 40/1 here. Potemkin finished 3rd behind him last start and that horse then came out and won on Wednesday so the form isn’t terrible. This is a big step up in class but I wouldn’t leave him out. REFULGENT should be ready to do something.
TIP: Carraig Aonair
Race 3
FOX HALL looks one of the best bets of the night here. He’s returned in great order and this isn’t a strong field. First up he ran 2nd to Steel Frost, who has since come to Melbourne and won two more races. Last start he went to Cranbourne and won easily by more than 2L. Comes into this third up and ready to peak, draws well for a great run behind the leaders, and looks a terrific chance to win again. IMPERATOR AUGUSTUS is the logical threat. He had his first start for Darren Weir last start and actually ran 2nd to Steel Frost, only beaten 0.4L. Craig Williams takes over from John Allen and he will probably settle one pair behind Fox Hall in the run. He would love a softer track but the Moonee Valley surface generally has a lot of cushion so he should appreciate that. No surprise to see him go on with it. BLACK SHEEP is Weir’s other runner and represents the value in the race. Weir said before last start that he was ready to win, but he carried a big weight with an apprentice on and never got into the race. Drops down in weight and Dean Yendall takes over. He’s got three wins from six starts at the track and look for sharp improvement from him at double figure odds.
TIP: Fox Hall / Black Sheep EW
Race 4
There’s no shortage of speed here with about four horses capable of leading. The unbeaten SMART COUPE looked a seriously talented filly back in the Winter and she returns to racing here. She bolted in on debut at Wangaratta and followed it up with a comfortable win over 1200m at Sandown. She’s had a quiet jump out leading into this and looks set for better races throughout the Spring. She led in both race stars but took a sit in the jump out, and with a fight for the lead expected, I think she will take a sit here. It’s her first go at 1000m which is the only query, but she looks a good chance to remain unbeaten. MADEENATY gets the blinkers applied for the first time here after running 3rd to Super Too over 955m here last start. She carries the big weight here and they sat midfield last start so it will be interesting to see if they do the same again or if she races keenly with the shades on. NATURE STRIP was truck loaded on debut with Robert Smerdon planning the assault in order to give the apprentice a win at his first race ride. The horse sat four deep on the speed and toughed it out to win and now the senior jockey takes over with a good barrier draw. I’d suggest the horse is probably pretty smart so he can go close. Don’t know anything about the debutante BLUEBROOK who comes over from Adelaide.
TIP: Smart Coupe
Race 5
They’ll absolutely fly along here with PLATEAU GOLD, TINTAGEL ROCKER, DANUKI and MILE HIGH all looking to lead. I think that set things up nicely for LADY ESPRIT who has placed in five of her six starts at the track and distance and she’ll get a lovely run behind that hot tempo from barrier 4 with Mark Zahra aboard. Three starts ago she ran 3rd behind Missrock and Heatherly over this track and distance and she’s had obvious excuses in her two starts since then. Goes close here and $6.50 is a great price. ESSENCE OF TERROR will go all the way back from barrier 14 but she’s got a big enough finish to get over the top of them late if they go as hard as I think. DANCE WITH FONTEIN should sit right behind the speed from barrier 1. She has two wins at the track and goes well first up so if she gets the breaks in the straight I think she can be in the finish. REBEL MISS comes down from Sydney and should be competitive, while PETITES REWARD gets the blinkers on for the first time. KING’S BAY has his first start in Australia after racing in South Africa. He has six wins from nine starts and is undefeated at the distance so he could show up. Wide open race!
TIP: Lady Esprit / Dance With Fontein EW
Race 6
Three main chances that I’ll be on here. FALIKA deserves favouritism and can bring up her hattrick here after impressive wins at Flemington and Cranbourne. Last start she knuckled badly at the start but still motored home over the top of SMART AS YOU THINK. The 2nd horse gets a 1.5kg weight swing today but I don’t think that will turn the tables. From barrier 3 I’d like to see them within striking distance on the turn instead of having to come from several lengths off them at the top of the straight. She goes on top. TOKEN OF LOVE comes down from Sydney where she’s been running consistently well in midweek grade. There doesn’t look to be that much pace on here so from barrier 1 she will either lead or box seat behind the Waterhouse/Bott horse. If that’s the case, she might just get everything go her way in the race and I’ll definitely be having something on her at $15. PYGMY is third up now and gets out to her pet distance of 2000. She’s never finished outside the top two from three starts at this trip so she really should be ready to do something now. SEBRING DREAM got a dream ride by Oliver last start which really was the reason she won. She draws well here so can get another good run if she jumps clean, but Ollie jumps off to ride Falika.
TIP: Falika / Token Of Love EW
Race 7
Cracking line-up for the Manikato Stakes! VEGA MAGIC is the best bet of the night here and looks extremely tough to beat after his enormous run in The Everest two weeks ago. As well all know, he was dragged back from the wide barrier before charging home down the outside on a day when very few runners had made ground doing that. From barrier 3 he will sit right up on speed today and even though it’s his first time at the Valley, that doesn’t worry me because he won a lot of races at Ascot in WA which is a tight-turning track. As I’ve said time and time again on the podcast, I think this horse is a genuine star and will prove as much over the next 12 months (if he hasn’t already). I think the only danger to him is IN HER TIME who would have gone close in The Everest had she got a run. She’s undefeated this preparation with two good wins in Sydney and she should put herself right up on the speed from the good barrier. CHAUTAUQUA ran enormous in The Everest and I think the horse is flying. Fourth up last prep is when he won the TJ Smith Stakes, so he should be right at his top for this. He will need to be pretty good to run down Vega Magic in my opinion, but if the tempo is higher than expected then I won’t be ruling out Chautauqua getting home over the top of them. ROCK MAGIC is ready to peak third up, HEY DOC drops back to 1200m and is undefeated at the track, and VIDDORA will run well again after a luckless 2nd in the Moir. You could make a genuine case for most runners in this field but Vega Magic is the one they all have to beat.
TIP: Vega Magic (Best Bet)
Race 8
HELLOVA STREET could lead here and he looks to be well suited. He ran well first up behind Badajoz and the step up to 1200m is ideal. He’s finished in the top two at four of his six starts when second up and if he finds the front he’ll be hard to run down. Expect MISS GUNPOWDER to have taken significant benefit from her firs tup run when she just peaked late. She still ran very well to only be beaten less than a length by Cool Passion, who has since come out and run very well again. Interesting to see if they go forward from the wide barrier. BASSETT has been slightly underwhelming in two starts this prep so I have to take him on at the price despite drawing barrier 1. In terms of blowouts, DAN ZEPHYR and SADAQA could be the two to include. Dan Zephyr didn’t see daylight first up and looked to be travelling well, while Sadaqa’s best run of the prep is typically second up. SUSPENSE is one we have to back at the price after his run behind So You Too last start. This is harder but he gets a great run from barrier 4. Happy to have a good crack at Hellova Street each way at the current price of $5/$2.
TIP: Hellova Street / Suspense EW
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
