The inaugural AFL Women's League (AFLW) season has finally arrived and so have my 2017 AFLW Round 1 betting tips with the AFLW fixture kicking off this Friday night!
In my 2017 AFLW season preview, I suggested that the competition seemed a more even-playing field than Australian betting sites would have us believe. That is the angle my AFL betting tips will be coming from in the early stages of the season, but ultimately it will take a few weeks to get a real idea about the women's AFL teams. So with that in mind, bet with caution in the early rounds and look to find more value later in the competition.
AFL Women's Round 1 Betting Tips
Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies (Friday, February 3rd at 7:45pm AEST)
The opening game of the 2017 AFLW season is an absolute monster with historic rivals the Carlton Blues taking on the Collingwood Magpies. Such was the anticipation for this curtain raiser that they had to change the AFLW game's venue from the 7,000-capacity Olympic Park to the 22,000-strong Ikon Park. Regardless of the result, it should be a great spectacle and a perfect way to launch the competition. And if the bookmaker odds are anything to go by, the fans are in for a tight, close match.
For anyone who read my AFLW season preview, it won't be too surprising that I think Collingwood are the value here. Carlton probably have more experience on their list, but Collingwood simply tick all the boxes and it appears that some of their players have more upside. If Moana Hope gets hold of the Carlton defence, she can damage the scoreboard enough to keep this out of the Blues' reach, while Emma King should be very dangerous in the ruck. Women's footy has proven to be low scoring, so the bookmaker's margin betting is smaller than the men's comp. I think that's how this one will play out, but with a few unknowns scoring wise, I will be splitting my betting between two markets.
Prediction: Collingwood to win
Tip: Collingwood Head-to-Head - $1.90 at CrownBet (1 unit)
+ Collingwood by 1-24 points - $2.65 at CrownBet (0.5 units)
Adelaide Crows vs GWS Giants (Saturday, February 4th at 5:05pm AEST)
The Giants are perhaps considered the weakest AFL Women's team in the competition, so I'm interested to see how they perform in AFLW Round 1. Adelaide, meanwhile, are considered a better chance than GWS and Brisbane, but are well behind the Victorian teams.
The Giants' list is perhaps the least experienced in the league - especially without marquee player Renee Forth after she injured her knee in the WAWFL finals. Much of the workload will be on number 1 draft pick Nicola Barr who starred in the AFL Sydney women's competition. Adelaide have a little more experience on their list, including two very dangerous players in Chelsea Randall and Kellie Gibson. The Giants lost a practice match to Brisbane a few weeks ago and I think they will start the AFLW season with a loss.
Prediction: Adelaide to win
Tip: Adelaide by 1-24 points - $2.55 at CrownBet (0.5 units)
Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle Dockers (Saturday, February 4th at 7:35pm AEST)
The Western Bulldogs and Fremantle Dockers are equal favourites to take out the 2017 AFLW premiership, so this should be the best game of the round.
There are obviously so many unknowns when it comes to the inaugural season, including how well teams will travel and what sort of advantage a home ground poses. If we assume it will be just like the main AFL comp, then the Dockers are going to find this tough as Whitten Oval is tipped to be a full house on Saturday night. However, there is plenty of indications that the Dockers are a real threat as the western WA Women's Football league has been a breeding ground for talent. I think the Dockers can keep this very close, but give a slight edge to the Bulldogs considering the home ground advantage. There will be a sea of passionate red, white and blue still on a premiership hangover from the men's win last year and their preparation for this game will be unencumbered by travel. Bulldogs to win, but betting wise there is value in the game being close.
Prediction: Western Bulldogs to win
Tip: Either Team UNDER 15.5 Points - $2.15 at CrownBet (0.5 units)
Melbourne Demons vs Brisbane Lions (Sunday, February 5th at 5:05pm AEST)
Along with the Western Bulldogs, the Demons are the darling of the AFL Women's competition. It's easy to see why when you consider captain Daisy Pearce is a star on and off the field. Brisbane, meanwhile, are one of the underdogs to compete during the 2017 AFLW season.
The Lions face the biggest line of AFLW Round 1, gaining 15 points against the Demons. I think Melbourne are overvalued. The fact it's a Melbourne home game will make it tough for the relatively inexperienced Lions, but like I said in my season preview, the Lions have a better list than their premiership betting suggests. They were able to get a win against GWS in a practice match and I don't think they will be pushovers. Melbourne should win here, but I will be taking what I think is a relatively safe bet.
Prediction: Melbourne to win
Tip: Either Team UNDER 24.5 Points - $1.57 at Sportsbet (1.5 units)
