It was a very successful first week in office for ‘PuntingInDanger’ on the weekend as we hit on 7 of 9 bets all coming at a minimum of $1.92. We’ll attempt to back it up with another good week before DropPunta returns to the fold next week. Some really important games in the Round 17 of the AFL this weekend with the Saints and Bombers kicking action off on Friday night at Etihad Stadium. We take a look at every game and give our betting tips below.
2017 AFL Round 17 Betting Tips
St Kilda vs Essendon (Friday, 7.40pm AEST)
The Saints made a statement on Saturday night against the Tigers, proving they are one of the best Etihad Stadium teams going round as they smashed Richmond by 67 points. The final score line didn’t do the saints dominance justice as they blew out to as much as an 82-point lead in the just the 2nd quarter. The Saints tall forwards were keys in the game with Tim Membrey slotting five goals and Nick Reiwoldt and Josh Bruce adding three and two respectively.
Membrey will be out for the clash against the Bombers, however, after an errant elbow in a marking contest earned him a two match ban from the MRP. Paddy McCartin looks to be the replacement for Membrey while Essendon currently boast one of the best looking injury lists in the league.
Should be an extremely interesting clash with the Saints looking to cement their spot in the eight before a really tough run home and the Bombers looking to capitalise on a good win over Collingwood on the weekend. The Bombers love to play quick through the middle of the ground which the Saints have had real trouble defending so far this year but it’s hard to look past the Saints in this form. With Sydney, Port Adelaide and West Coast in their next three games, the Saints will be desperate for a win here to set up a run at the eight.
TIP: St Kilda -5.5 - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Geelong vs Hawthorn (Saturday, 1.45pm AEST)
Once great foes, the rivalry could get a glimpse of the past this weekend as Geelong and Hawthorn go to battle at the MCG. Hawthorn have won two of their last three matches and suffered a heartbreaking draw to the Giants on the weekend, a fate that the Cats succumb to two weeks ago. The Hawks should be fired up for their skipper Luke Hodge, who announced through the week that he will retire come seasons end.
The Cats looked dominant in their 85-point win over the Lions on the weekend as Patrick Dangerfield once again went off for 38 touches and 3 goals. The Hawks will have a tough time stopping the reigning Brownlow medallist although we do fancy their chances at the MCG, where the Cats have lost 2 of their 3 matches this year.
The one win the Cats had was over the Hawks back in Round 4 but Hawthorn are a much different unit now and have looked extremely dangerous over the last three weeks with wins over Adelaide, Collingwood and the draw to GWS. These two teams have a knack for playing nail biters and we think this could be another close one.
TIP: Hawthorn +15.5 - $1.92 at Ladbrokes
Port Adelaide vs North Melbourne
As shaky as the Power have looked at times throughout the season, they just keep managing to collect wins and now sit 4th on the ladder thanks to their impressive percentage. They have won three of their last four games and probably should have beaten the Tigers at home two weeks ago after leading the whole game. It was an impressive win over the Eagles in Perth on the weekend and they should welcome the return to Adelaide Oval against arguably the worst side in the comp here.
Tough to find a scenario where the Roos even come close in this one, every factor points towards the Power steam rolling. Port Adelaide have been at full strength for a few weeks now, with Matthew Broadbent the only question due to injury while North Melbourne have had a horror run with Jarrad Waite, Marley Williams, Kayne Turner, Trent Dumont and Mason Wood all under injury clouds.
In Port Adelaide, we feel a blow out on the horizon here.
TIP: Port Adelaide 40+ - $2 at Sportsbet
Gold Coast vs Collingwood (Saturday 4.35pm AEST)
Somehow, as of writing this, Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley still has his job. Many pundits were calling for his head after the Pies lost to Essendon for the 2nd time this season. They’ll get another tough test this week when they travel to Queensland to take on the Suns on Saturday afternoon.
The Suns went down to the inform Swans on the weekend, which was expected, but come into this match as favourites on the back of getting Gary Ablett, Pearce Hanley and Aaron Hall back from hamstring injuries. Kade Kolodjashnij also looks set to return after an extended period sidelined due to a concussion.
At this point we have to assume Bucks will be there till the end of the season, but the way the Pies have been playing of late you also have to think he’s lost the respect of the playing group. Another loss here would rub salt in the wound and with the home field advantage and a host of inclusions to the Suns team, we think they collect the victory.
TIP: Gold Coast to win - $1.80 at Ladbrokes
Greater Western Sydney vs Sydney (Saturday, 7.25pm AEST)
While Sydney have looked the in form side in the competition of late, winning their last five games, they can truly make a statement on Saturday night with a win over the Giants at Spotless Stadium. After starting 0-6, the Swans slipped out to as much as $91 to win the flag but are now 4th favourite at just $8.
The Giants have drawn their last two games against the Cats and Hawks, the first time a team has drawn back to back games since 1921, and will be desperate for a win here to maintain a top two position on the ladder. Top two is massive for the Giants, who won’t fancy travelling away from Sydney in the first week of finals. As is top six for Sydney, who sits just four points behind the four teams occupying 4th-7th on the ladder.
A win for the Swans here would likely see the top eight start to take shape with just six games to come. The Giants injury concerns are still a massive problem, while Sydney will likely welcome back Kurt Tippet and Harry Cunningham to the side. Since their Round 7 loss to the Saints, the Giants have only played one game ending in a margin greater than 16 points, we think we could be in store for another close one here.
TIP: Either team under 15.5 points - $2.50 at Sportsbet
Melbourne vs Adelaide (Saturday, 7.40pm AEST)
Melbourne bounced back after a disappointing loss to the Swans two weeks ago to beat the Blues by 8 points on the weekend. They’ll get a much tougher opponent this weekend, however, as they face the Crows who look to be back to some form after a 59-point demolition job of the Bulldogs on Friday night.
The Crows have now won their last two games after that shock upset at the hands of Hawthorn a few weeks ago and should be close to full strength here with just Tom Lynch the only concern from their regular 22. Melbourne on the other hand are bursting with injury issues. Jack Viney, Nathan Jones, Christian Salem, Dom Tyson and Jack Watts will all likely miss the weekend’s game while Tom Bugg is still unavailable through suspension.
After being thrashed by Sydney and barely limping over the line against Carlton, we cant see how the Dees can stay competitive here given their long list of injuries, we think this could be a rout.
TIP: Adelaide -18.5 - $1.92 at CrownBet
Richmond vs Brisbane (Sunday, 1.10pm AEST)
What are we supposed to make of Richmond’s absolutely horrendous performance against the Saints on Saturday night? A couple of weeks ago they looked like one of the form sides in the comp after a statement win in Adelaide but now the talk is that the Tigers got ahead of themselves. Luckily for them they’ll get the opportunity to get back on track against a Brisbane side that has sandwiched a great win over Essendon with two shocking losses to the best two sides in the comp.
If this game was up in Brisbane we’d probably like the chances of the Lions given Richmond’s performance on the weekend. However, down in Melbourne, even if it is at Etihad Stadium, the Tigers should be looking to bounce back and should be too strong for the Lions. The Tigers have been one of the lower scoring teams in the comp this year though so kicking enough points to win by over 40 is unlikely.
TIP: Richmond 1-39 - $2.40 at Sportsbet
Carlton vs Western Bulldogs (Sunday, 3.20pm AEST)
The season is well and truly on the line for the Dogs here. Another loss would make it five out of the last six and most likely eight points behind the top eight. While they do have an extremely easy run home, they can probably only afford to drop one more match if they want to make finals, so dropping it here would spell danger for them.
It’ll be just the Dogs 2nd game at the MCG all season, the first being a 14-point win over the Pies back in Round 1. The bigger ground arguably wont suit their high pressure and tackling style of game but their skills through the middle of the ground could open up the Blues who like to play the same way.
As bad as they have been over the last month, the Dogs are still the premiers and have a knack of getting it done when it matters most. They are a chance to get skipper Bob Murphy back into the side this week which should be a massive inclusion. Taking them to win in a close game but if they lose this I’m writing them off for the rest of the season.
TIP: Western Bulldogs 1-39 - $2 at Sportsbet
Fremantle vs West Coast (4.40pm AEST)
The Perth Derby will conclude Round 17 on Sunday afternoon in a must win game for both sides. West Coast currently sit just outside the top eight on percentage while Fremantle sit one game further adrift after a gutsy win over North Melbourne on the weekend.
After dropping five games on the trot, the win over the Roos sees Fremantle stay in touch with the eight, but another loss this weekend would likely see their season over given they have GWS and Sydney in the run home. Nat Fyfe looked back to his Brownlow form with 33 touches and a goal in the win.
West Coast have alternated wins and losses for the last six games now and look to be one of the most inconsistent teams in the comp. Their injury list is vast and while they did get a few back in Priddis, Hurn and LeCras on the weekend, they will still likely be without star full forward Josh Kennedy. They will enter the game as strong favourites but I’m steering clear of this one because anything can happen in a derby.
TIP: No bet
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