2017 AFL: Round 11 Preview & Betting Tips

The byes have arrived which means a little bit less footy for the next three weeks. There are, however, still some cracker games coming up as an intriguing season continues to throw up surprises. It was good to see my AFL betting tips back into the positive last week with 6/8 correct picks for just over +5 units. Hopefully I can chip away at my poor start to the year and add more profits with my 2017 AFL Round 11 preview and betting tips.

2017 AFL Round 11 Betting Tips

Port Adelaide Power vs Hawthorn Hawks (Thursday, June 1st at 7:20pm AEST)

The Hawks find themselves heading into Round 11 on the back of a great win, but now have the tough task of a trip to Adelaide Oval to take on Port Adelaide.

Despite only one less victory on the ledger compared to Port Adelaide, it's hard to suggest Hawthorn's season has been anywhere near as promising. They managed to stand up and show some heart in a 6-point win over the Swans last week, but their consistency is a real worry and that simply comes down to a mixture of an inexperienced list coupled with a tiring older brigade who can't play at 100% every week. They are struggling with scoring this season, managing over 100 points only twice and that's where they will lose this game. Port Adelaide go inside 50 around 12 times per game more than the Hawks (ranked 1st in the comp) and take almost 5 more marks inside 50. Hawthorn put in a solid team defence against the Swans last week, but it continues to be very clear that Josh Gibson is not the defender he once was, while no other Hawk defender has truly stepped up while James Frawley has been on the sidelines. The record between these two teams is 3-3 over the last six and a they have a recent history of tight contests, but I can really see the Power able to blow this one out at Adelaide Oval. I'll be backing them at the line as they look to bounce back after a very brave 2-point loss in Geelong last week.

Tip: Port Adelaide at the line (-30.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (2 units) 

Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows (Friday, June 2nd at 7:50pm AEST)

Geelong's string of games at Simonds Stadium continue in Round 11 as the Adelaide Crows face the tough task of the Cats on their home turf.

It's clear that the Cats love to play at Simonds Stadium so it's not surprising that some fans will be whinging that they get three games in a row there. However, the AFL didn't make it easy for them with games against the Dogs, Port Adelaide and now the Crows. Winning two of those is probably 'breakeven' for the Cats, while winning all three will be a huge bonus. It's not going to be easy against an Adelaide side that has just demoralised by the Lions by 80 points and the Dockers by 100 in the last two weeks. Those wins are largely why the Crows are favourites going into this week, but I think there is value with the Cats. The last two weeks have shown us how they can play, while it's easy to forget how much vulnerability the Crows showed three weeks ago in their loss to the Dees. Rory Sloane was heavily tagged that week and the result around that was telling, so you would expect Scott Selwood to have a huge job this Friday night. If he can get on top of Sloane, and the Cats midfield continues to gel as they have the last two weeks, you would think they will make it three in a row at Simonds. Should be the best game of the round.

Tip: Geelong by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.75 at Ladbrokes (1 unit)   

Gold Coast Suns vs West Coast Eagles (Saturday, June 3rd at 1:45pm AEST)

Another disappointing loss last week - albeit to the premiership fancied Giants - sees the Eagles head to the Gold Coast on Saturday afternoon to try and get back in the winner's circle.

I'm not going to bury the lead here - I am quite surprised the Eagles are only 9-point favourites. Yes, the game is on the Gold Coast. Yes, JJ Kennedy is a massive out. But the Suns have just been absolutely horrible. I hate to use the AFL media's favourite word, but they have actually personified 'insipid' the last few weeks. Even if we forget their China game, they haven't shown us much. The Demons played horrible football last week when the Gold Coast got out to a 24-point lead at half time, but the Suns played some of the worst footy you will see in that second half to end up losing by 37 points. They will be happy to get back to Metricon and hopefully have the great Gary Ablett back on the track, but you just couldn't back them at the moment. It's hard to know how the Eagles will fare without Kennedy, but they have a much deeper list than the Suns and as long as Luke Shuey is back, their midfield should easily be able to get on top of the Suns. Not a hugely confident play, but happy to take the Eagles at this line.

Tip: West Coast at the line (-9.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (1 unit) 

Note: Since publishing the Suns have been heavily backed and can get Eagles -2.5. I am happy to have another nibble at that line or the straight head-to-head. 

GWS Giants vs Essendon Bombers (Saturday, June 3rd at 4:35pm AEST)

Despite their injury woes, the Giants continue to build the momentum during the 2017 AFL season. They have a chance to win their ninth game this week as the take on the Bombers at Spotless Stadium.

The Giants played the tough twilight Sunday slot in West Coast last week and only flew back to Sydney on Monday morning, so recovery will be important considering the reports they only have 26 healthy players on their list at the moment. Fortunately, I think they will match-up very strongly against the Bombers. The Giants are solid taking the ball inside 50, whereas the Bombers are ranked 16th and have lost the inside 50 count in nine of their 10 matches this season. It's lucky for them that Joe Daniher has found another gear or they would really be struggling to score. The Bombers are also ranked last in clearances compared to the Giants in 1st. Essendon have been gallant in their losses this season, but I think they are a team who can be punished for poor ball use. The Tigers had 29 more inside 50s than the Bombers last week, but they just couldn't convert as much as they would like to. If the Giants get on top of the Bombers like that, you would expect them to convert at a far higher percentage. Another small play for a team to cover a relatively big line.

Tip: GWS at the line (-27.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (1.5 units) 

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Richmond Tigers (Saturday, June 3rd at 7:25pm AEST)

The Roos managed a shaky fourth win of the season last week against the Blues and now face the Tigers on Saturday night in what should be an interesting game.

The Blues threw everything they had at North Melbourne last week and almost managed to knock them over. It was just a massively inconsistent day from North and if they play like that again they will really struggle against the Tigers. I don't think the Tigers are a lock by any means, but Richmond have played good enough footy to think they can defeat the Roos on Saturday night. The battle between Nankervis and Goldstein will be interesting and play an important role in North's chances, but overall the Tiger's midfield has been really solid the last few weeks and should get on top. As long as the Alex Rance led Tiger defense can contain Ben Brown and Jarrad Waite, the Tigers should snag another win. I would have Richmond as closer to two-goal favourites here. Happy to get on them to cover the line.

Tip: Richmond at the line (-5.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes (2.5 units)

Fremantle Dockers vs Collingwood Magpies (Sunday, June 4th at 2:40pm AWST)

Just the one game on Sunday in Round 11 as the Magpies travel to Domain to take on the Dockers in the last game of the bye week.

The Dockers are slight favourites going into this one, but probably don't deserve to be considering their 100-point loss to the Crows last week. They need to respond strongly and will be happy to play at Domain, but I think Collingwood have shown enough to get a confidence-boosting victory on the road this week. Jamie Elliot being back in the side makes Darcy Moore look much more dangerous in the forward line as opposition coaches struggle to find the right match-up for Elliot who can play as a weird small/medium forward hybrid. Clearly the Docker defence was in disarray this week, so Nathan Buckly just needs to find a way to have his team attack in the manner he has over the last fortnight. Aaron Sandilands was clearly a bigger out than Ross Lyon thought last week, so he will need to be back on the track for the Dockers to be any chance. He's a likely return, so the contest with Grundy will be one to watch. Another factor here is that Lyon might make a tonne of changes considering their embarrassing defeat last week - which could help - but also could hinder as his line-up will lack continuity. It won't be an easy victory, but I think the Magpies are the value here.

Tip: Collingwood to win head-to-head - $2.15 at Sportsbet (1.5 units)

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2017 AFL Round 11 Betting Bonuses