Another week of footy starts in Geelong this week with the first game of the round kicking off on Thursday night. Unfortunately last week was very tough and brought us to just over -7 units for the season, but plenty of interesting games this week to bring it back, so don't miss my 2017 AFL Round 10 preview and betting tips.
2017 AFL Round 10 Betting Tips
Geelong Cats vs Port Adelaide Power (Thursday, May 25th at 7:20pm AEST)
Thursday night footy is back as a massive clash sees Port Adelaide travel to Simonds Stadium to take on the Cats on their home turf.
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It's a cliché, but a week is a long time in footy and nothing highlighted that more than Geelong bouncing back with a high-pressure performance as they tackled their way to victory against the Bulldogs last week. They will win a lot of games if they play like that again and will be very tough for Port Adelaide in Round 10. They come into this on the back of a six-day break, but they love playing at Simonds Stadium and will certainly have renewed confidence. Patrick Dangerfield was back to his best last week after whispers he may have been nursing some soreness in the early stages of the season. Port Adelaide will be fresh after their bye following the China experiment, but that could be a negative if they struggle to adjust to the intensity the Cats showed last week. Port Adelaide also have a horrible record against the Cats, losing 11 of the last 12, while they haven't won at Simonds Stadium since 2007. I can't see them changing that at Simonds this Thursday, but it should be a competitive game between two high scoring teams.
Tip: Geelong Cats by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.30 at Sportsbet (2.5 units)
Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks (Friday, May 26th at 7:50pm AEST)
It's been a long time since we have gone into a game between the Swans and Hawks with both teams sitting outside the top 8 - let alone in 12th (Sydney) and 17th (Hawthorn) as they are now. Regardless, we should be treated with a fierce contest on Friday night at the SCG.
Despite both teams being 3-8, there is no doubt the Swans come into this game in better form and with more confidence -their performance against the Saints last week was almost as good as something we would have seen last season. Dan Hannebery continues to play fantastic footy after a woeful start to the year, while the ever-important Dane Rampe will play his second game back this week. The biggest improvement from the Swans the last three weeks has been seen on the scoreboard, averaging 124 points compared to 75 in the first six. Hawthorn, meanwhile, have been struggling to score and that's where they will find this game too hard. They are relying too much on players like Jack Gunston playing up the ground and with the likes of Cyril Rioli out with injury, they just don't look dangerous going forward. The Hawks do have a great record against the Swans though, winning seven of the last 10 including the last three at the SCG. It will also be interesting to see Tom Mitchell play against his old side in a week where he has faced scrutiny for not having enough of an impact in his ridiculous 50-posession game last week. The Hawks are struggling, but they showed a glimpse of their best in the 1st quarter against the Pies last week. I do think the Swans win this game, but on a Friday night against arch rivals, the Hawks should put up a strong fight.
Tip: Sydney by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.20 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Western Bulldogs vs St Kilda Saints (Saturday, May 27th at 1:45pm AEST)
The reigning premiers have lost two in a row and face a tough opponent in Round 10 as they take on the Saints at Etihad on Saturday afternoon.
It might not a be a high profile rivalry, but the Saints and Bulldogs have been known to have some fiery clashes after a recent history which includes two close preliminary final contests in 2009 and 2010. The two teams are an even 4-4 in the last eight contests and both teams got one victory against each other last season. All signs point to what should be one of the best games of the weekend as both teams look to bounce back after losses in Round 9. The biggest challenge for the Bulldogs will be scoring enough, but we said that almost every week last year and they ended up winning the flag. They do look better with Jack Redpath and Tory Dickson back in the side, while Tom Boyd managed to hit the scoreboard last week which they will need if they are going to win games like this. These teams play a relatively similar style with almost every player on the field able to play multiple roles, so it will be interesting to see if the game is free flowing or if there is no choice but to make it a contested slog. Despite their poor effort last week, I actually lean towards the Saints at the line in this one (think the Dogs shouldn't be more than 1-goal favourites), but think there is merit in taking the 'either team' market at similar odds.
Tip: Either Team by Under 24.5 Points - $1.83 at Sportsbet (2 units)
Melbourne Demons vs Gold Coast Suns (Saturday, May 27th at 4:05pm AEST)
The Demons head to Alice Springs to host the Suns on Saturday afternoon with Gold Coast looking to forget their abysmal efforts in China a fortnight ago.
There is going to be a lot of pressure on Melbourne to perform this week as there is scrutiny that they have problems 'above the shoulders' as they are unable to win the games where they are heavily favoured, but can defeat the Crows at Adelaide Oval like they did a fortnight ago. Last week's performance against North Melbourne was very inconsistent, but at their best they are a far better side than the Suns. I'm actually surprised the Demons are only 14-point favourites - have we forgot just how poor the Suns were in China? I know there were all kinds of unique circumstances around that game, but I would just think the Demons would be at least three goal favourites. The Demons, do, however have a poor record in Alice Springs. They need to turn that around and win these games if they are to justify selling a home game. It will be interesting to see if Bernie Vince goes and does a job on Gary Ablett like he did successfully on Rory Sloane two weeks ago. The Suns rely too much on guys like Ablett (and a couple of others) to have an impact and simply lack depth. I'll be having a small play on the Demons at the line.
Tip: Melbourne at the line (-13.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers (Saturday, May 27th at 7:25pm AEST)
The Bombers have strung together two massive wins against quality opposition and will have enough opportunity to prove to us they are the real deal against the Tigers on Saturday night at the MCG.
The Tigers have been the laughing stock of the AFL leading up to Round 10 after another last-minute loss by less than a goal last week. It's an ugly trend that Richmond need to address, but for now they will no doubt be focussing on just putting away teams earlier and not finding themselves in that situation. They don't have an easy task this week, however, with the Bombers coming off victories against the Cats and Eagles. Both those wins were impressive, but it was the Eagles' game which had me thinking the Bombers can be a very dangerous team - especially when they get their run going courtesy of David Zaharakis and when big Joe Daniher is looking unstoppable in the forward line. I think there is a chance teams have been somewhat underestimating the Bombers and that won't happen this week. There is no chance the Tigers let Zaharakis roam free, while they should probably also look to quell the influence of Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti's run. Putting work into Joe Daniher will also be important and there is no better defender to stop him than Alex Rance. Expecting a tough contest, but like the TIgers to bounce back and play the kind of football we know they are capable of.
Tip: Richmond by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.45 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Adelaide Crows vs Fremantle Dockers (Saturday, May 27th at 7:10pm ACST)
The Crows have struggled to live up to their early season hype, but managed a confidence-boosting victory in Brisbane last week. They get back on Adelaide Oval this week and will be looking to regain momentum against the Dockers on Saturday night.
This game is going to be a showcase of contrasting styles with the high scoring Crows taking on the more defensive Dockers. Despite winning six games and being in 5th on the ladder, the Dockers have scored only a little more than Brisbane and Carlton so far this season. The Crows, meanwhile, average 10 points per game more than their nearest competitor. The two questions here are: Can the Dockers score enough to defeat the Crows? Can the Dockers contain Adelaide's forward line? I think the answer to both these questions is 'no' and certainly not at Adelaide Oval. I actually think the Dockers have over performed so far this season and can't see their youngsters being able to bring their best every single week. They should be brought back to earth in Round 10. Note: after posting this tip, Aaron Sandilands was ruled out - a huge positive for this play if you can still get somewhere around this line.
Tip: Adelaide at the line (-34.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes (1.5 units)
Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions (Sunday, May 28th at 1:10pm AEST)
It may sound dramatic, but Collingwood's season (and maybe Nathan Buckley's job) looked to be over at quarter time last week against Hawthorn and it wasn't much better at half time. But they turned it around and managed a huge win that will certainly have boosted their confidence heading into Round 10 against the Lions.
After a few glimpses of okay football early in the season, the Lions have started to really struggle. It's not that they can't score (they average the 2nd least points in the comp) it's more that they can't top their opponents from scoring. This will be a good opportunity for Collingwood's much-scrutinised forward line to gain some confidence. Likewise, Collingwood's midfield should have a field day against the Lions who will still be without ball magnet Tom Rockliff. It will not be a good luck for Collingwood if they don't come out and smash Brisbane, but betting wise the line is a little too high for my liking. Going to sit this one out and see which Collingwood turn up.
Tip: No Bet.
Carlton Blues vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (Sunday, May 28 at 3:20pm AEST)
The Blues host the Roos at Etihad Stadium on Sunday afternoon in what should be one of the more interesting matchups of Round 10.
Despite managing only three wins, the Blues have been the surprise packed of 2017 with their young side showing a promising future. Likewise, North Melbourne have played better footy than we thought they were capable of this season - especially last week in their victory over the Demons. They will be quietly confident this week, but I'm not expecting the Blues to be pushovers. I have been most impressed with their defensive efforts as they have conceded the second least points of the bottom eight sides. The problem is they have struggled to score enough themselves. They will also have their hands full this week against an in-form Ben Brown and Jarrad Waite who we know can go off at any minute. I have faith that Carlton will be competitive this weekend, but the Roos have shown us enough to think they win games like this.
Tip: North Melbourne by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.10 at Sportsbet (2 units)
West Coast Eagles vs GWS Giants (Sunday, May 28th at 2:40pm AWST)
Talking about the Eagles is becoming a broken record - they struggle far too much in Melbourne and excel in the comforting confines of Domain Stadium. They get back on home turf this week, but unfortunately for them will be facing tough competition in the GWS Giants.
West Coast's current situation bares resemblance to Geelong last week. The Cats were put under immense pressure for their insipid non-tackling performance and came out and silenced the critics with a vigorous response. West Coast will need to the same this week after coach Adam Simpson directly called out his leaders for their poor performance. So the question is will they respond like the Cats did? They will have to bring their best against the high-pressure and fast running Giants who come into this game on the back of a thrilling victory over the Tigers. The scary thing about the Giants is that they haven't been playing their best and have a huge injury list and are still getting the job done. It's not going to be easy at Domain Stadium where they have a horrible record, but I will be having a small play with a 7-point headstart.
Tip: GWS at the line (+7.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
