The 2017 AFL Grand Final is finally here! Will it be the Tiger army who win their first premiership since 1980? Or will the Crows recapture the glory of their late 90's run and start creating their own history? Find out what we are thinking in our 2017 AFL Grand Final preview and betting tips.
2017 AFL Grand Final Betting Tips
Adelaide Crows vs Richmond Tigers (Saturday, September 30th at 2:30pm AEST)
2017 encounter: Adelaide (140) vs Richmond (64) at Adelaide Oval
Last 5: Adelaide 3, Richmond 2
The last day in September will see footy fans treated to a massive clash between two clubs who are both very hungry for success. The Crows have been the best team all year and have barely put a foot wrong. They now face the momentous task of taking on the Tigers at the MCG. It's shaping up to be a great Grand Final.
Adelaide and Richmond met just once in 2017 and it was a demoralising 76-point loss for the Tigers at Adelaide Oval. They started that game strong, but let the floodgates open late and were ultimately dominated by Adelaide's potent attack. This is simply what can happen against a team that has so many talented goal kickers. In that game, Rory Sloane and Matt Crouch both dominated the pill, while Taylor Walker kicked five goals. It will be interesting to see if the Tigers look to go with a hard tag against Sloane, or play that 'team defence' we hear so much about. They don't have a pure tagger, but we will likely see someone like Prestia or Lambert 'run with' Sloane. It might be an idea for one of them to also go to Matt Crouch, as he can be just as damaging as Sloane. Adelaide, meanwhile, will have to think about how they quell recently announced Brownlow Medalist Dusty Martin's influence. Dusty had 25 touches and a goal against Adelaide earlier this year, but had very little impact. It feels like he is primed for a massive Grand Final. Time will tell.
The Crows don't play at the MCG too often, but in their three trips to the home of football this year they managed two wins (Hawks & Blues) and one draw (Magpies). They adapted their style fairly effectively to the ground considering that Adelaide Oval is far skinnier. I don't think the ground will play huge role, but obviously the Tigers will be extremely happy to be fighting it for a premiership on their home turf against an interstate team.
This is truly a tale of two contrasting teams - the high-scoring attack of the Crows vs the stingy defensive style of the Tigers. Adelaide averaged just under 110 points per game during the regular season and were undefeated when they scored over 100 points. It's not often a Grand Final is a high-scoring affair, but this is how the Crows play their best football and how they are going to need to play if they are to win. The Tigers, meanwhile, averaged just 86 points per game during the season, but on the flipside they allowed the third least points against in the comp. When the Tigers play their best (such as last week's prelim vs GWS) they choke their opponent's scoring opportunities and make them overuse the ball. This is going to be hard to do against the Crows who are the slickest team moving inside 50.
It's going to be a very interesting match-up and no doubt the coaches are going to play a huge role in the result. At the end of the day, however, I think the Crows are simply the better side and the hardest side to combat. There is plenty of public hype around Richmond (after all they are a massive club) and I think that has played a role in the line being set so small. I would usually be keen to take my favoured side at the margin in a Grand Final, but Adelaide truly can pile on the scoring if a team drops their head. I think the play here is to take Adelaide at the line.
Prediction: Adelaide by 18 Points
Tip: Adelaide at the line (-5.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet
For those punters having a crack at the Norm Smith Medal, I will be taking a piece of Sam Jacobs. Like most footy accolades, the Norm Smith isn't usually a ruckman award, but Sauce is a different beast and I reckon he will have a fierce contest with Nankervis and will be integral to Adelaide winning the game. He is also a favourite of the footy industry and media and those are the people who vote. He has had a habit through his career of standing up in big games and that has certainly been the case in 2017. The last time Jacobs played the Tigers he had 26 touches, took 9 marks, had 50 hitouts and kicked a goal. Can get a juicy $21 at Ladbrokes.
Tip: Sam Jacobs to win the 2017 Norm Smith - $21 at Ladbrokes
