After a long off season that contained plenty of high profile trades and fresh signings, it’s finally time to get ready for the new NBL season. We will be offering NBL betting tips every week! Here we’ll take look at the value bets for the first round of action.
2017-18 NBL Round 1 Preview & Betting Tips
Adelaide 36ers Vs Melbourne United (Thursday, 5th October 7:30pm AEST)
The Adelaide 36ers enter their first game with the heartbreak of last season’s semi-final collapse still fresh in their minds. They still have a relatively strong squad on paper, despite the fact that they lost star player and league MVP Jerome Randle. However, whether other players have the ability to fill the void Randle has left remains to be seen.
Melbourne United Start this one as favourites and we understand why. Although they severely underperformed last season (finishing in 6th place with a 13-15 record) with a star-studded line-up, new head coach Dean Vickerman looks like he could be the man to finally get things going for them. Vickerman’s had a lot of success coaching in the NBL in the past (involved in 4 championships with the breakers, 1 as the head coach in 2015) and with new recruits Casey Prather and Craig Moller impressing in pre-season, Melbourne look ready to start off with a bang.
Adelaide should be competitive in this game, but we think it would take something special from Nathan Sobey, Mitch Creek & co if they are to match the firepower of Melbourne United’s offense. Look for Melbourne to start the season strong here and send a message to the rest of the competition.
Note: Chris Goulding has been ruled out of the game due to sickness, we still like Melbourne United to cover the line but it will likely come in a few points.
TIP: Melbourne United at the line (-1.5) - $1.95 at Ladbrokes
Perth Wildcats Vs Brisbane Bullets (Saturday, 7th October @8:30pm AEST)
The Perth Wildcats start off their quest for a 3peat at home and at relatively short odds, as you would expect. The Wildcats have been the best Australian basketball team for a long time now and we don’t see them dropping off this year. Casey Prather was a big loss in the off season and won’t be easily replaced. However, after seeing in the back half of last season how Bryce Cotton can take over a game, we are sure that the Wildcats will be more than a handful for the Bullets on Saturday.
On the other end of the spectrum are the Brisbane Bullets, who were last year’s wooden spooners. After a hot start, the Bullets only managed to finish the season with a league worst 10-18 record. They will be looking to bounce back this year and have made some major adjustments in their backcourt by acquiring Travis Trice and Stephen Holt. Both are quality players and should aid in the Bullets improvement, however, they are both ball dominant guards and could take a while to gel, which could hinder their production early in the season.
Even with the loss of Prather it’s still nearly impossible to bet against the back-to-back reigning champions in this one. We like the Wildcats to win and win comfortably with star man and early MVP favourite Bryce Cotton setting the tone.
TIP: Perth Wildcats (-5.5) - 1.87 at Sportsbet
Player market: Bryce Cotton to score 21+ and Perth Wildcats to win - 2.75 at Ladbrokes
New Zealand Breakers Vs Cairns Taipans (Sunday, 8th October @4pm AEST)
The New Zealand Breakers enter this matchup as slight favourites over the Taipans. After an inconsistent and lacklustre 2016-17 season (finishing in 5th place with a 14-14 record) they will be looking to start off strong with a win at home. However, with their downfall last season being a lack of creativity in their offense, and without any major off season changes, it’s hard to see them improving a great deal in 2017-18.
Like the Breakers, the Cairns Taipans enter this season with a relatively unchanged roster. Going into the 2016-17 season tipped to finish last the Taipans surprised everyone with their impressive 2nd placed finish. With a much lower budget than other teams, the Aaron Fearne coached roster relied on their stingy defence to get the job done throughout the season. They finished off 2016-17 with the second lowest points against per game, which credits the coaching ability of Fearne and the culture he’s been able to build where everyone buys into his system and tries their hardest on both sides of the ball.
Unless New Zealand coach Paul Henare has improved their offensive sets in the off season, we believe the Taipans defence will make it difficult for the Breakers to score and get in rhythm in this one. We like the Taipans to win here in a competitive and potentially low scoring encounter.
TIP: Cairns Taipans to win - 2.25 at Sportsbet
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