Alright punters, the 2016 NFL season is just a few weeks away, but with the pre-season beginning Friday 12th August we will look for some value betting on the future markets with the NFL season kicking off September 9th.
Before we get into my 2016 NFL season betting tips and predictions, this is a good opportunity to do a quick revision of smart punting methods and responsible gambling.
Did you know that in order to make a profit when betting NFL you need to hit above 52.5% of your bets (assuming you are betting $1.92 line odds). This may look and sound easy but it’s actually very tough. Only the best handicappers (punters) consistently hit above 53% of winner’s year after year. Below are some methods and tools you can use to give yourself the best opportunity at profiting this season.
Money & Bankroll Management: this is a very simple concept to understand but it will take a lot of willpower to adhere to, especially over the course of a season. You can read more about learning sports betting bankroll management here.
Find edges + Game selection just because there is a Monday night game on or your favourite team is playing. It doesn’t mean you have to bet on it. In order to make a profit you might have to sit out. Don’t force bets.
Line Shopping to give yourself the best opportunity of making money this season you will need multiple sportsbooks to choose from. Think of sportsbooks like you think of supermarkets. Each supermarket will have different specials day-in day-out. Just like the sportsbooks will offer different lines/odds on the same game. You can find out what we consider the best Australian sports betting websites here.
Bet sober & with no emotion: This may sound obvious but drinking and betting do not mix. Also remember that how you handle your losses will determine how successful you are as a sports bettor. Now let’s take a look at NFL season wins (over/under) totals.
With all this in mind, let's take a look at the 2016 NFL season and don't forget we will be offering NFL betting tips all year long!
2016 NFL Season Preview & Betting Tips
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
If you look up mediocre in the dictionary there should be a big Buffalo Bills logo there. Year after year they finish around 8-8 (wins-losses). Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor won’t be able to scramble for first downs like he did last season and there is an injury cloud over dynamic playmaker Sammy Watkins. Their schedule is far tougher than it appears on paper. I can’t see them improving on last season’s record.
Tip: Buffalo Bills under 8.5 season wins - $1.68 at Sportsbet
New York Jets
This team is a dumpster fire. They seem to always make headlines for the wrong reasons. The most recent being the standoff between quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets Management over pay dispute. They eventually signed him to a one-year contract. However, they’ll need more than just a B minus quarterback to have a winning season. A bad offensive line and a tough schedule will keep the Jets season wins very low.
Tip: New York Jets under 7.5 season wins - $2.10 at Sportsbet
New England Patriots
Drama Drama Drama. If you haven’t heard quarterback Tom Brady will miss the first four games due to suspension. Replacing Brady is Jimmy Garoppolo (who looks like the real deal). Interestingly enough the line for the opening game didn’t move after Brady’s suspension was confirmed. This tells me the odds makers in Vegas are confident that the Patriots can cover the temporary loss of Brady. The Patriots will once again make a deep run. They have a great Offensive line and Defense. Not to mention a hall-of-fame coach/quarterback combo.
Tip: New England Patriots over 10.5 season wins - $1.82 at Sportsbet
Miami Dolphins
If you thought things were bad at the Jets. This might be the worst NFL team in 2016/17. From idiotic ownership to bad recruiting the Miami Dolphins look like they are spiralling out of control. Their schedule is also tough which includes early road games against the Seahawks, Patriots and Bengals. After these early losses their spirits will be at an all-time low.
Tip: Miami Dolphins under 6.5 season wins - $2.10 at Sportsbet
AFC NORTH
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have a very strong home field advantage which is one of the most important factors to consider when betting season totals. Their quarterback Andy Dalton is at best a B minus. However, he can hide behind a very good Offensive line and a wide receiver that makes him look much better than he is. The Bengals Defense is solid and will keep them in a lot of games.
Tip: Cincinnati Bengals over 9.5 season wins - $1.66 at Sportsbet
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens were the unluckiest team last season. They suffered the most amount of significant injuries and also had many close games that could have gone either way. They will be a different side this season with the return of quarterback Joe Flacco. I’m predicting a nine-win season for the Ravens.
Tip: Baltimore Ravens over 8.5 season wins - $2.17 at Sportsbet
Pittsburgh Steelers
Despite the loss of talented receiver Martavis Bryant the Steelers have all the right ingredients to win a superbowl. They have arguably the most potent offense in the league led by QB Ben Roethlisberger and wide receiver Antonio Brown. They are not only a big threat through the air but can move the chains on the ground too. Running back Le’Veon Bell is a beast and their back-up De’Angelo Williams is no dud. I have the Pittsburgh Offensive line ranked 4th in my power rankings and if center Maukice Pouncey stays healthy I believe they can go all the way.
Tip: Pittsburgh Steelers over 10.5 season wins - $1.73 at Sportsbet
Cleveland Browns
The Browns are the worst team in the NFL. The odds-makers in Vegas don’t have them favoured in any game and I completely agree. As I am writing this the Browns just announced they will be starting Robert Griffin (or RGIII) at quarterback. Don’t be fooled by this “Mutton dressed as Lamb” player. Despite that they have no playmakers on offense and have lost way too many key players on Defense. They might win a couple of games but I wouldn’t be shocked to see them put up a big fat donut (0-16).
Tip: Cleveland Browns under 4.5 season wins - $2.37 at Sportsbet
AFC SOUTH
Tennessee Titans
I do see this team improving on last year’s 3-13 record but only by one win. Quarterback Marcus Mariota has bulked up a bit which may keep him on the park but could also affect the way he throws the football. The Titans best bet is smash-mouth football. They acquired running back DeMarco Murray from the Eagles which should help their running game. However, they cannot stop any one. My prediction is a four-win season.
Tip: Tennessee Titans under 5.5 season wins - $2.17 at Sportsbet
Houston Texans
The Texans were very active in the Offseason acquiring free agent quarterback Brock Osweiler from the Denver Broncos. He is still evolving and could be a very good player in the near future. They also got rid of the ageing Arian Foster and replaced him with Lamar Miller. A young running back from Miami. The Offense will take time to gel. The Defense is one of the best in the NFL. I have them ranked 4th in my power rankings. Between their Defense and home games I see them winning 8+ games.
Tip: Houston Texans over 8.5 season wins - $1.73 at Sportsbet
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags went 5-11 last season and showed signs of improvement. They now have a quarterback Blake Bortles that can manage/win games. Jacksonville may have over payed for running back Chris Ivory but his addition will no doubt help the Jags improve on their 5 win 2015 season. Their Defensive front seven is very talented but I don’t think they are ready to be a .500 team just yet.
Tip: Jacksonville Jaguars under 7.5 season wins - $1.93 at Sportsbet
Indianapolis Colts
No Luck for the Colts in 2015. I mean that literally. If there’s no Andrew Luck there is no Colts. That’s how important this guy is. He had no protection last season so building a new Offensive line was obviously the number one priority for the Colts. That rebuild began with Ryan Kelly a center from Alabama. Even though Andrew Luck was out most of the season (even played with a lacerated kidney) the Colts still managed 8 wins. With their upgraded O-Line and Luck back they can win the AFC South.
Tip: Indianapolis Colts over 9.5 wins - $2.50 at Sportsbet
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos
The 2015 Superbowl champions won 12 games last season. That will not happen this season. The Broncos say goodbye to Payton Manning and they weren’t able to keep Brock Osweiler either. Stepping in at quarterback is Mark Sanchez. A player that has had his chances and cannot be trusted. They also lost starters on the Offensive line which makes running the ball a big ask. The Broncos Line-backers will do their best to keep Denver in games but their interior line has a few holes. The AFC West is stacked and missing the playoffs would not surprise me at all.
Tip: Denver Broncos under 9.5 season wins - $1.60 at Sportsbet
San Diego Chargers
When Phillip Rivers is gone this team is going to look back and think “why did we not do more to protect this quarterback”. Rivers is an A quarterback on a C team. They have made some changes to the Offensive line but not enough to make a big impact. There is no real home ground advantage in San Diego and the coaching staff don’t make the best decisions (especially on game day). I have them finishing on 7 or less wins.
Tip: San Diego Chargers under 7.0 season wins - $2.26 at Sportsbet
Oakland Raiders
This is the big BUZZ team. All the analysts are predicting a “break out” season. It all begins with quarterback Derek Carr. Carr threw 32 touchdowns and almost 4000 yards in 2015. I can’t see a reason why these numbers won’t continue especially with Oakland’s Offensive line (ranked in my top 10) and wide receiver Amari Cooper. The Defense gave up 25 points a game. However, the Raiders made some big inclusions on the defensive side of the ball. That’s enough for me to buy into a winning season (possibly a playoff team).
Tip: Oakland Raiders over 8.5 season wins - $1.85 at Sportsbet
Kansas City Chiefs
This is an old school football team. They have a great defense and keep the ball on the ground. It’s not like they have a choice with a quarterback like Alex Smith. Smith is known as a game manager and poses no threat (especially down the field) to opposing teams. Running back Jamaal Charles may have to carry this team all season and that is asking a lot from a running back coming off a torn ACL.
Tip: Kansas City Chiefs under 9.5 season wins - $1.99 at Sportsbet
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys
Tony Romo broke his collarbone in round 2 last season and the Cowboys season was over. That’s how important a competent quarterback is in this league. Romo often gets a hard time but he is an A quarterback in my book. If Romo stays healthy the Cowboys have all the pieces around him to make the playoffs. They have the number 1 ranked Offensive line which is why they took a big chance on Ezekiel Elliott in the draft. It could be one of the smartest or dumbest draft moves ever. The Cowboys don’t have to win many games in the weak NFC East but I think they will.
Tip: Dallas Cowboys over 9.5 season wins - $2.14
Washington Redskins
The Redskins won 9 games last season with a very easy schedule. This seasons schedule is much tougher. Quarterback Kurt Cousins played out of his skin and I am predicting a regression from Cousins in 2016. Their defense is average (except for the secondary) and their Offense is average. At best they are a .500 team.
Tip: Washington Redskins under 7.5 season wins - $1.68
Philadelphia Eagles
I can’t believe the Eagles fired head coach Chip Kelly after one season. They are now in rebuilding mode (again). They sold the farm for rookie quarterback Carson Wentz and now leave themselves in a position that could risk the development of Wentz. First year coach Doug Pederson has a long season ahead of him.
Tip: Philadelphia Eagles under 7.5 season wins - $1.56 at Sportsbet
NY Giants
New York won just 6 games last season and fired future hall-of-fame coach Tom Coughlin. This was a mistake in my opinion. They will enter the season with first-year coach Ben McAdoo. Historically first year coaches always struggle in the NFL. Even with Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr playing their best the Giants have too many question marks for the 2016/17 season.
Tip: New York Giants under 8.0 season wins -$2.03 at Sportsbet
NFC NORTH
Detroit Lions
The Lions lost Calvin Johnson (Megatron) in the offseason. That alone leaves a big hole to fill. They also lost key defensive players for the second consecutive season. The biggest problem for Detroit is their Offensive line and it doesn’t look like they have done anything to fix it in the offseason. This is a real shame because I would love to see what Matthew Stafford could do in a good team.
Tip: Detroit Lions under 7.0 season wins - $1.87 at Sportsbet
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are certainly a defensively minded team averaging just 21.0 points a game in 2015. They have added some key players on Offense including wide receiver Laquon Treadwell and veteran Guard Alex Boone. These additions will help QB Teddy Bridgwater but ultimately the fate of the Offense falls in the hands of Adrian Peterson. As good as he is leaving your fate to a running back for the entire season is risky business. Their home game schedule looks very tough with Green Bay, Houston, Arizona, Dallas and Indianapolis all capable of an upset. I have the Vikings on 9 wins.
Tip: Minnesota Vikings under 9.5 season wins - $2.03 at Sportsbet
Chicago Bears
I’m not sure what the Bears future plans are. Quarterback Jay Cutler is turning 33 and showing no signs of being the QB every one thought he would. They lost their long time safety net running back Matt Forte to the NY Jets and the Offensive line is one of the worst in the league. The biggest positive for the Bears will be the three new line-backers acquired. However, I can’t see an improvement on last season.
Tip: Chicago Bears under 7.5 season wins - $1.71 at Sportsbet
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay look like real contenders this season. Aaron Rodgers had a down year but he will no doubt bounce back. He is still my number 1 ranked QB in the NFL. The Offensive line looks much better and the return of Jordy Nelson will make Green Bay a force again on Offense. On defense the Packers will move Clay Matthews back to outside line-backer (where he belongs). While safeties Ha Ha Clinton- Dix and Morgan Burnett make the Packers secondary a very potent unit.
Tip: Green Bay Packers over 10.5 season wins - $1.62 at Sportsbet
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons
Somehow Atlanta won 8 games last season. This season I can’t see them winning more than five. The defense couldn’t stop a runny nose and they haven’t addressed any problems in the offseason. Matt Ryan is a great quarterback but the Falcons don’t have multiple receivers for him to target. They also have a horrible schedule.
Tip: Atlanta Falcons under 7.5 season wins - $1.67 at Sportsbet
Carolina Panthers
Last season the Panthers won 15 out of 16 games and made the Superbowl. So expectation will be high. Their schedule is much tougher this season and they will also be on every teams hit list. In saying that they still have a very potent Offense and Defense. They will win the NFC South division unless they a rocked by a sea of injuries.
Tip: Carolina Panthers over 10.5 season wins - $1.93 at Sportsbet
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs are probably one year off being a winning team. Jameis Winston looks like he can be a top level quarterback in the NFL but just needs a few more key players around him before he goes to the next level. Running back Doug Martin rushed for 1402 yards last season and I can’t see him putting up those numbers again. They used most of their draft picks on defense but they won’t make a big impact this season (maybe 2017/18 for the Bucs).
Tip: Tampa Bay Buccaneers under 7.5 season wins - $1.62 at Sportsbet
New Orleans Saints
Drew Brees is now 37 years old. Despite his age Brees threw for almost 5000 yards last season. This won’t be the case this season considering the lack of playmakers on Offense. Tight end Ben Watson was acquired by Baltimore and his replacement looks clumsy. The Saints have a very tough schedule ahead of them and I believe they will regress from last year.
Tip: New Orleans Saints under 7.0 season wins - $2.13 at Sportsbet
NFC WEST
Los Angeles Rams
This is going to be a very disappointing year for Rams fans. They have put all their eggs in one basket after trading up for the number one draft pick (Jared Goff). It only cost them two second round picks, a third round pick, a first round pick (2017) and a third round (2017). The biggest problem is losing several key defensive players. My prediction is a 3-win season.
Tip: Los Angeles Rams under 7.5 season wins - $1.53 - at Sportsbet
Seattle Seahawks
This defense will be back to 100% heading into the 2016 season and I expect Seattle to make a deep run in the playoffs. The only problem I can see is the Offensive line and this would usually be a big issue but with Russell Wilson under center it doesn’t worry me. They have a generous schedule, especially early in the season and 12 wins is not out of the question.
Tip: Seattle Seahawks over 10.5 season wins - $1.71 at Sportsbet
San Francisco 49ers
This once great franchise is about to fall even further from grace. They announced they will be starting quarterback Blaine Gabbert who is less than average. Head Coach Chip Kelly has inherited a very bad roster on both sides of the ball. My prediction is two or less wins for the season.
Tip: San Francisco 49ers under 5.5 season wins - $1.77 at Sportsbet
Arizona Cardinals
If Carson Palmer stays healthy the Cardinals could go all the way. That seems to be the general consensus. They have one of the best rosters on both Offense and Defense plus a very good coach. This does feel like the last roll of the dice for Arizona to win a Superbowl. Will Palmer handle the pressure? A 10+ win season does seem achievable though.
Tip: Arizona Cardinals over 9.5 season wins $1.50 at Sportsbet
Take note: Anything you read on this page is simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
