Yellowglen Turnbull Stakes 2000m - Group 1
This shapes up as a good contest over the 2000m on the big track of Flemington which should give every horse their chance. The track has come up in the Good range and pre-race favourite Alpine Eagle has been scratched with a hoof problem.
HAPPY TRAILS: Always takes a few runs to hit his peak and he showed last start that he is ready to win. Finished strongly in 5th, only beaten 0.7L behind Fawkner over 1600m. The step up to 2000m is ideal and he draws a good barrier. He's run 5 times over this course and distance for 2 wins and a placing. Stable are very confident and he is the on top selection for me at good each way odds.
PROTECTIONIST: Genuine 3200m horse and he will once again find a few of these too slick over 2000m.
HARTNELL: Was pretty plain first up at Randwick in the Chelmsford. Step up to 2000m works in his favour but John O'Shea said he is probably going to need the run. The plan is to ride him cold so I see him more of a place chance than a winning chance.
PREFERMENT: Massive win last start over the likes of Magic Hurricane and Complacent who have both come out and won since. Stays at 2000m and he's won at Flemington before so he comes into this as a genuine winning chance at big odds once again.
VOLKSTOK'N'BARRELL: 5th behind Mourinho over 1800m in the Underwood last start. Steps up in distance once again which helps him but his runs so far have only been fair. Needs to improve.
MAGICOOL: Well beaten in the Underwood and needs to improve signficantly to get the better of these.
DANDINO: Nice run in the Underqood where he finished midfield. Chased home pretty solidly along the rails and seems to be coming along nicely for the Cups. 2000m still a bit short for him.
WHO SHOT THEBARMAN: 5th behind Preferment last start over 2000m and not beaten all that far at all. Gets to Flemington which is a track that really suits him and I think he is definitely one that can feature in the finish at decent odds.
RISING ROMANCE: 2nd in the Makybe Diva last start where she really should have won. She's absolutely flying and the step up to 2000m really suits her. Drawn sticky but with any luck she can win.
WEARY: Finished at the back of the field in the Underwood and might not be appreciating the firm tracks. Finally draws a decent enough barrier which will allow him to settle closer in the run but he might struggle again on a firm track.
AMRALAH: Pretty disappointing since coming to Australia until his massive win in Adelaide last start. Won by 3 lengths over 1800m and the step up in distance will again work in his favour. The penny looks to have dropped and if he improves again he could be hard to beat. Drawn awkwardly so might not get the same soft run he got last start.
EXTRA ZERO: Appears to not be going well enough but he does have a tendency to pop up in these sorts of races. In well at the weights and there's every chance he could run into a place. Not for me though.
SET SQUARE: Was super first up and then unlucky last start when caught wide. Up to 2000m, big track, drawn well and in with 54.5kg. I can see her bouncing back and running a big race here.
GUST OF WIND: Coming along nicely but she's also a genuine two-miler and will find the 2000m a bit sharp against this field.
ROYAL DESCENT: Has some of the best form in the race with form around Cox Plate favourite Kermadec. Drawn sticky in barrier 13 but does get in very well with 53.5kg. I think there is one or two ahead of her, but she will have every chance to win this off such a low weight.
Summary
Going with HAPPY TRAILS who has previously performed best over 2000m. His run last start put the writing on the wall and he should be peaking today. Great each way chance at double figure odds. RISING ROMANCE is another that put the writing on the wall last start when she should have won the Makybe Diva. If she had have drawn a barrier she would be top pick but regardless of the bad draw she is a great chance. Behind that the likes of Royal Descent, Who Shot Thebarman, Preferment, Hartnell and Amralah are all place chances.
1st Happy Trails
2nd Rising Romance
3rd Who Shot Thebarman
4th Royal Descent
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