After getting close to going 3 and 1 in Week 3, but ending up 2-2, I am hoping for more success this time around as I offer up my 2015 NFL Week 4 betting tips and preview.
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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers – Friday 10:25am AEST
Thursday night football will see AFC North rivals do battle as the Baltimore Ravens look for their first win of the season and the Pittsburgh Steelers look for a winning formula without star quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
Big Ben is out indefinitely. Veteran QB Michael Vick will start under centre for the Steelers, making just his fourth start in two seasons. This is a quarter back driven league and Vick is a turn over machine. Steelers are 1-6 without Roethlisberger and I expect this trend to continue.
Baltimore is 0-3 but you could make a case for them to be 2-1 or even 3-0. They were very unlucky in the season opener against Denver and then lost 33-37 at Oakland and 28-24 vs Cincy. The line is -2.5 Baltimore and I think it’s a bargain.
Tip: Baltimore Ravens at the line (-2.5) - $1.87 at CrownBet
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Monday 4:00am AEST
Another rivalry game as NFC South opponents the Carolina Panthers will take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Panthers are currently unbeaten (3-0) but have had a very favourable schedule. Meanwhile Tampa Bay are in a rebuilding and developmental stage but securing number 1 draft pick Jameis Winston will pay dividends in the future.
The Panthers should be able to hurt the Bucs both on the ground and in the air. Cam Newton has thrown for over 680 yards with 5 TD’s but also 144 yards of rushing including 2 TD’s.
The total for this game is currently 39.5 which tell us Vegas believe it will be low scoring. I think there is value in the over and have the game finishing something like 28 Carolina 16 Tampa Bay.
Tip: Carolina Panthers at the line (-3.0) - $1.88 at CrownBet
+ Total Game Score Over 39.5 - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers – Monday 7:25am AEST
Let me start by saying that I am baffled by this line. Yes I understand it is a short week and quick turnaround but 8.0 points versus a depleted and under talented 49ers team is an insult.
The Green Bay Packers are a very good all-around football team. Their quarterback is maybe the most talented ever. They have won their last two games by 10 points versus Seattle and Kansas City. Two of the best defense’s in the NFL and now Vegas is trying to tell me they are only a 8 point favourite against one of the worst teams. I don’t buy it.
Aaron Rodgers is also breaking all kinds of records. He is 67/91 with 771 yards and 10 TD’s and that’s only through three weeks. 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick might not have 10 TD’s all season.
Tip: Green Bay Packers at the line (-7.5) - $1.93 at CrownBet
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks – Tuesday 11:30am AEST
This is a bad spot for the Detroit Lions as Seattle will play with a chip on their shoulder after starting the season 0-2. The Seahawks were back to their winning ways in week 3 after shutting out the Chicago Bears (26-0) and even with an injury cloud over Marshawn Lynch I believe the Seahawks could put up 50 points against this Detroit defense.
The Seahawks still have a number of weapons on offense without Lynch. Most noticeably in week 3 was new recruit Jimmy Graham. Graham was targeted just two times in week 2 and he publicly let everyone including coach Pete Carrol know that he was not happy about it. Carrol listedned and responded in week 3 as Graham had 7 receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown.
Just like “The Gronk” in New England. Jimmy Graham will become a big weapon for Russel Wilson especially when the cerebral quarterback figures out how to use him.
Tip: Seattle Seahawks at the line (-10.0) - $2.05 at CrownBet
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
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