Thanksgiving football is back and there are three yummy games on the menu. I can’t remember an NFL season ever being so tight or so many must-win games for teams in round 13. The Wild Card race is so bunched up that every % is going to count. There’s some very exciting games of both NFL and College football this weekend, so kick back relax and let’s make some money.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions - Friday 4:30am AEDST
Chicago and Detroit will get things started on Turkey Day. Two old rivals who would both love to spoil each other’s attempt into the post season. Detroit has dropped their last two games but only because they had to play the Cardinals and Patriots on the road. So we will give them a pass for that.
Chicago is on a two game win streak thanks to some coaching adjustments. Coach Marc Trestman has turned to the good ole faithful ground game and why wouldn’t he with a tailback as consistent as Matt Forte. Until Jay Cutler gets his act together I prefer this style of football from the Bears.
This line opened at -5.5 (DET) and now sits at -7.0. The public will bet Detroit but I don’t think this line will move. Although I do think the Lions will control this game and win I don’t believe they will cover the 7. I don’t trust Matthew Stafford for four quarters and Chicago has some self-belief back.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys - Friday 8:30am AEDST
Game two looks like a cracker. The battle for NFC East supremacy.
Philadelphia may have looked good last week against Tennessee but only a week before that they got blown out by Green Bay. I still can’t trust Mark Sanchez in big games and big moments and this game will really test him.
Dallas just got over the line against New York. Although I believe there was some rust and they may have been looking ahead to this home game versus the Eagles. There have been some fiery words thrown out by Eagles players questioning the Cowboys Offensive Line. All I can say to that is don’t poke the bear. The Cowboys Offensive line will now be out to prove a point and with DeMarco Murray in the back field or Tony Romo “with time” in the pocket I think the Eagles defense will be in for a rude awakening.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers - Friday 12:30pm AEDST
You could label the first game “PRIDE” and the second game “HIGH OCTANE” but this game should be labelled “BLOOD BATH”
Both Seattle and San Francisco are tied at 7-4 and both are chasing that second Wild Card spot in the post season. This game is a must win for both proud city’s. This game will be about pure will power and mental strength.
These teams match up very evenly. Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick both share a 93 QBR with 14 TD and 5 INT to Wilson and 15 TD and 6 INT to Kaepernick. Wilson has the better name but he has not been the same quarterback as last season. Marshawn Lynch and Frank Gore are both great with the slight edge going to Lynch but the 49ers wide recievers are better quality than Seattle so it evens out.
Even on paper both defense’s look alike. But with the home crowd in their corner I will lean 49ers. This game will be a great old fashioned “punch em in the mouth” football game. Leaning UNDER 39.5 points and 49ers.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (Tuesday at 12:30pm AEST)
This Monday Night Football matchup would have looked much better on paper at the beginning of the season. Now we get to see the two win New York Jets host the Wild Card hopefuls the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins have a fairly soft schedule from now until the playoffs (except for a week 15 Patriots game) but it is very possible for them to finish 10-6 and that might just be enough.
The Jets season now looks like tryouts for 2015. They are giving Geno Smith another shot which could end in a disaster with the dolphin’s defense firing on all cylinders this year. I think playing him against a softer defense would be better for his confidence. Although Michael Vick missed practice and is apparently sick so I guess they don’t have much choice.
The Dolphins will be doing the Math and with the Kansas City loss today it is very bunched up for that last Wild Card spot. This line opened at -4.5 (MIA) and is now out to -7.0. I can’t see this being a high scoring game but I do think the Dolphins defense will get after Geno and create a lot of opportunities. There’s so much more at stake for Miami
On a cold day in New York a 24-10 type game is where it should fall.
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2014 NFL Week 13 Betting Picks
Consider placing your bets at Palmerbet. In 2014, Palmerbet is offering $2 lines on all NFL games – great for Aussies looking to find some extra value betting on American Football.
Bet On: Chicago Bears at the line (+7.0) - $2 at Palmerbet *
Bet On: Dallas Cowboys at the line (-3.0) - $2 at Palmerbet *
Bet On: San Francisco 49ers at the line (-1.0) - $2 at Palmerbet *
Bet On: Miami Dolphins at the line (-6.5) - $2 at Palmerbet **
