Hard to believe it’s already Week 11 of the 2014 NFL season. It was a slow start last week but we finished strong. Hopefully we pick a few winners this week. Read on to find our 2014 NFL Week 11 preview and free NFL betting picks.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (Friday at 12:25pm AEST)
There’s a lot on the line in this TNF match up as AFC East Rivals will battle it out at Sun Life Stadium. Both Buffalo and Miami are coming off tough week 10 losses but if there is such a thing as a good loss I would have to say that Miami’s loss to Detroit in the closing minutes was a good loss. Matthew Stafford’s unbelievable throw in the red zone was all that stood in the way of Miami upsetting Detroit. They won’t have to deal with that calibre of quarterback this week as Kyle Orton will start for the Bills.
Earlier this season the Bills beat up Miami pretty good with a 29-10 victory at home. E.J Manuel was the quarterback that day. It will be a different looking game on Thursday night as veteran QB Kyle Orton will start. Orton will celebrate his 32nd birthday in Miami Florida but that might be all he will be celebrating as he faces a very determined Miami defense who are only allowing 19.0 points per game.
It always worries me when everyone is suggesting this will be a very close battle and a game that Buffalo might even steal yet the line is moving in the other direction. The line opened up at -4.0(MIA) and is up to -5.5 at most books. Miami have revenge on the mind and the home crowd. Two important factors in this short week turn around game. Miami by a touchdown.
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (Monday at 8:25am AEST)
The Packers made a mockery of the Chicago Bears last week and Aaron Rogers is UN stoppable at the moment. In front of a home crowd Rogers is even better, he’s thrown for 15 touchdowns 0 interceptions with a QBR of 140.1 at Lambeau Field. He never forces anything and a running back as solid as Eddie Lacy in the back field never hurts.
The Packers defense at Lambeau has been lights out. Allowing just 10, 14 and 17 in their last three home games. Eagles quarterback Mark Sanchez may have silenced his critics for one week but I’m still not convinced. He was just “okay” against a very bad (road) defense and now he will have to face a determined Packers defense at Lambeau Field. I believe we will see the old “butt-fumble” Sanchez today.
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (Monday at 8:25am AEST)
In case you hadn’t heard the big headline for this game is the 8-1 Arizona Cardinals will be without their starting quarterback Carson Palmer as he suffered a season ending knee injury last week against St Louis. Ironically the Cardinals now turn to former Detroit Lion quarterback Drew Stanton to lead them.
The lions were very pleased to welcome back “Megatron” last week. Calvin Johnson returned to the line-up and instantly had an impact to the tune of 7 receptions, 113 yards and a touchdown. Between him and Golden Tate the Cardinals secondary will be on their toes all day.
When Palmer went down last week there was a collective drop of the head and slump of the shoulders in Arizona. They may have to turn to their running game which has been non-existent this season. Even though they are a defensively minded team they are going to look a lot less threatening to opponents for the rest of the season. I believe the lions have enough weapons on offense to give any team a headache but their bread is buttered on defense. They are the number one ranked defensive team allowing just 283.4 yards of total offense. Arizona will receive their second loss of the season.
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (Monday at 12:30pm AEST)
Sunday Night Football. Pats vs Colts. Brady vs Luck. If you’re lucky enough to have the day off work, enjoy. The rest of you set your dvr and IQ boxes to record.
Lucas Oil Stadium will play host to this blockbuster in what looks like blistery conditions. -1.0°c with a high chance of rain. Tom Brady has proven he is the best cold-weather quarterback and as much as I like Andrew Luck this is one area of his game that is quite unknown. Rob Gronkowski is a nightmare for defensive coordinators and Brady is a cerebral quarterback so if you double team the Gronk then Brady has the ability to just survey the field and find the open receiver.
Patriots defense held Manning and the Broncos to 21 in week 9 and I can see a similar outcome here.
Both the Colts and Patriots are coming off week 10 byes but when you give coaches like Bill Belicheck an extra week to prepare he usually doesn’t waste the time (10-4 record after a bye) He should have plenty of surprises for Luck on Sunday Night.
This total is too high for me. Bad weather. High pressure game. Both teams could be a bit sloppy off the bye.
Update: Lucas Oil Stadium where this game is being played is actually an indoor stadium. Most of my points still stand, the weather factor just may not play as big a role.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (Tuesday at 12:30pm AEST)
What did we do to deserve this game? Not really your MNF blockbuster. The 2-7 Tennessee Titans will host the 6-4 Pittsburgh Steelers. The NFL sales team have their work cut out for them in this one. Titans rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger is going to have to take plenty more snaps before we see anything remotely acceptable. He has 3 touchdowns 3 interceptions and a QBR of 78.3. Pass.
Titan’s defense is also questionable especially when defending the run, allowing 136.6 yards per game (ranked 24th in the NFL). In their past two games vs Baltimore and Houston they have allowed a whopping 363 yards on the ground.
This should leave the door open for Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell. Belly has had 162 carries this season and averages 4.61 yards per carry. He is a first down machine with 34 first downs. Big Ben might take a back seat Monday Night as the conditions will favour a run game. But either way I can’t see Tennessee winning the football game especially with a rookie QB on a Monday Night.
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Stay tuned for more NFL free picks from the following games:
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2014 NFL Week 11 Betting Picks
Consider placing your bets at Palmerbet. In 2014, Palmerbet is offering $2 lines on all NFL games – great for Aussies looking to find some extra value betting on American Football.
Bet On: Miami Dolphins at the line (-6.0) - $2 at Palmerbet *
Bet On: Detroit Lions at the line (+1.0) - $2 at Palmerbet **
Bet On: Green Bay Packers at the line (-5.5) - $2 at Palmerbet *
Bet On: New England Patriots at the line (+3.0) - $2 at Palmerbet *
+Total Game Score Under 57.5 - $1.88 at Palmerbet *
Bet On: Pittsburgh Steelers at the line (-5.5) - $2 at Palmerbet **
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
