One of the feature events of the Spring racing carnival is the Caulfield Cup. It’s one of the biggest days of the year, not only in Australia but Internationally, and one that everyone likes to have a punt on. And why not? There’s plenty of media hype and it should be a fun day for all racing fans.
We’ve had some success on this event in recent years so we hope to keep that momentum going in 2014.
The story this week has been the number of scratchings that have drastically shaped the market and potentially the speed map for the event. We’ll review a couple of the key chances and provide our tips for the race below.
The markets were turned on their head with the scratching of second favourite Bande. It means that Lucia Valentina ($4.40 at Betfair) has come in to a short-priced favourite. It’s a really thin price, but it really is hard to come up with excuses not to support her. It’s expected that there will be a fair bit of contest for the lead up front, and that speed will play right into the hands of this swooper. She would prefer a little sting out of the track, but has won on a Good track. The issue will be how far she gets back and if she can get a clear run at them. Her turn of foot is exception but if she gets too far back or can’t get a run then the gap might be too much to overcome.
Offering a bit more value is Lidari ($10 at Bet365) who looked great in the Turnbull before Lucia Valentina claimed the horse late. A very consistent performer, there are a number of positives for Lidari. From barrier 4 the horse should get a dream run and maps to be up on the speed, with a sit behind the leaders. Ideal to make a run at it in the straight but will the horse have enough to hold off the challengers.
Bigger odds can be found around Rising Romance ($15 at Bet365) who beat Lucia Valentina in the Oaks last prep. Will get back to midfield in the run and looks a good each-way option.
It’s a step up in class for Siesmos ($24 at Betfair) but from barrier 1 is a strong chance to push forward to be leading in the running. Has some solid results overseas and isn’t without hope.
Finally watch out for Green Moon ($34 at BetEasy). Hasn’t impressed in recent runs, but seems to be gearing for the bigger races and has already declared intentions to push forward which will give it every chance. Good roughie hope.
Verdict: It’s really hard to take the short price on Lucia Valentina in a race with so much traffic, but it’s very hard to make a case against her, other than the price on offer. Lidari looks the biggest threat and offers good value.
1st Lucia Valentina
2nd Lidari
3rd Rising Romance
4th Green Moon
Take note: The above tips are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always bet responsibly. Happy punting!
