It has certainly been an interesting start to the 2014 AFL season and it’s only going to get more interesting during Round 3! Be sure to check out our weekly AFL preview below, along with all the Round 3 AFL betting tips and tipping advice!
AFL Round 3 Preview
It doesn’t get much bigger than the Round 3 opening game on Friday night – Hawthorn Vs. Fremantle. This is an interesting game to bet on, especially considering the Dockers were into a low of around $1.70 earlier in the week and now with some massive outs (Nat Fyfe, Michael Barlow and Zac Dawson) are back out to around the $2.30 mark. The Hawks will be without Luke Hodge and there are some doubts that Sam Mitchell, Ben Stratton and Brad Sewell, though these three are expected to be named. With the line around the one-goal mark, we will be looking at cashing in on this week’s.
There are quite a few other games during Round 3 of the 2014 AFL season that we are willing to have a punt on and with Sportingbet offering such a juicy promotion this week, we are likely to take them up on their 18 point money back offer for all of our picks. In the Western Bulldogs Vs. Richmond game we are leaning towards taking the value on the Doggies at around $3.20. This is only because of the Sportingbet promotion. It's a tough one and there is certainly an argument to take the small odds on Richmond, with the thinking being that they would never lose to the Dogs by more than 18, but don't write the Dogs off!
Another game we are interested in is the Brisbane Vs. Gold Coast. This is another case of thinking the Gold Coast Suns should win, but happy to sneak some extra value with the Lions. Logic would suggest we do the same with the Nth Melbourne Vs. Port Adelaide game, but we really want to see another week from the Roos and are thinking along the lines of Port Adelaide being able to blow this game out of the water, as well as scrape through with a win by just a couple of goals. Tough call, but could be worth putting money on Port Adelaide head-to-head at $1.70 or less, with that 18-point buffer from Sportingbet.
We are also going to stay away from the Adelaide Vs. Sydney game as, like the Roos, we need to see another week from Sydney before we bet on or against them. Surely they are going to show us the talent we thought they had before the season, but guessing when that is going to happen isn’t a game we want to partake in.
One of the games to draw plenty of attention in Round 3 will certainly be Collingwood Vs. Geelong on Saturday night. The Pies got a bit of retribution with a ripper performance last week, but that Round 1 Freo loss is still fresh in our minds. Scott Pendlebury can’t win the Pies a game every week and the Geelong midfield will be much harder to contend with than the Swans’ underdone mids. Happy to get our money on Geelong in a close(ish) one here, either taking Geelong Under 39.5 or for the more timid, Geelong head-to-head.
Exotic AFL Betting Tip
While a lot of the time 'Most Disposals' bets and the like are suckers picks, every now and then there is value to be found and we think we have found some in the Hawks Vs. Fremantle game. In the Most Disposals Group A market, we are having a small bet on Grant Brichall. This is the reasoning: He was top two against Freo both times the Hawks met last year, including being top with 37 touches early in the year; Fyfe and Barlow are out, meaning the favourite for most disposals David Mundy will get lots of attention from the Hawks; and Sam Mitchell, the second favourite in the group, is underdone this season and will likely get a tag from Freo.
Bet On: Grant Birchall Most Disposals Group A at Sportingbet - $5.50
Before You Bet Round 3 Tipping Advice
Round 3 of the 2014 AFL season is one of those really tough tipping weeks. Lots of games could go either way, so plenty of people will finish with just 4 or 5 correct picks this week. Remember, this isn’t betting advice, just some help with your local workplace/bar tipping competition. Last week we picked 8 right, only getting the Pies Vs. Swans game wrong. Let’s see how we go in Round 4!
Fremantle (Vs. Hawks)
Richmond (Vs. Bulldogs)
Adelaide (Vs. Swans)
Gold Coast (Vs. Brisbane)
West Coast (Vs. St Kilda)
Geelong (Vs. Collingwood)
GWS (Vs. Melbourne)
Port Adelaide (Vs. Nth Melbourne)
Essendon (Vs. Carlton)
Score last round: 8
Total Score: 12
Take note: The above tips are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always bet responsibly. Happy punting!
