Most Australian betting sites offer plenty of different NBA betting markets for every scheduled game. One of the most interesting, and sometimes most lucrative, is the NBA player performance betting markets. Apart from the absolute mega stars of the game, most player’s stats fluctuate a large amount from night to night, so if you can determine when it is or isn’t going to be a player’s night, you can really take advantage of these player performance NBA prop markets. We will sometimes offer player prop picks in our NBA betting tips, but here are some general tips for making your own decisions when it comes to betting on NBA player performance markets.
Generally, some selected players are given an over/under on a different stat, whether it be points, rebounds, assists or a combination of two or more of them. The line is usually set somewhere around their season average for that particular star eg. James Harden’s season average for points is 28.8, so bookmakers might set his points line at 28.5.
There are a few different key factors that could swing a player into having a good or bad performance on any given night. The bookmakers are usually pretty good at adjusting their lines if something major happens, however, sometimes they go unseen, and sometimes you’ve got a small window to jump on before they are updated.
The biggest factor in my opinion is injuries. When a leading player on a team gets injured, the bookmakers automatically think that their replacement in the starting line-up should get the majority of their production. While it’s true that the replacement will have a spike in stats, usually at least two other players in the starting line-up get an added boost in production that often sees them get the over. Vice versa if an injured player is returning to the line-up.
We saw a classic case of this earlier this season when star Clippers point guard Chris Paul went down with injury. We saw his replacement in the starting line-up, Austin Rivers receive a significant increase but also the likes of Jamal Crawford and J.J Reddick improve their points and assists numbers in Pauls absence. These 2nd and 3rd guys can often go unnoticed by the bookmakers.
Matchups are another key factor. Some teams defend some positions really well while give production to other positions in spades. It’s usually a safe bet to steer clear of the overs when your player is playing against teams like the Spurs or Grizzlies. They defend every position well and rarely let one player dominate a game.
A team that I like to utilise is the Boston Celtics. They defend the guard positions extremely well with Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley holding down defensive duties but on the other hand, they are the worst rebounding team in the league. We saw Andre Drummond, the league’s leading rebounder who’s rebounding line is generally set around 14.5 claim 22 against the Celtics just a few nights ago, which would have been an easy win for the overs.
The best thing to do is study team stats and defence vs positions, a great website to do so is basketballreference.com or rotowire.com
Another thing to keep a close eye on is the game odds. If there’s a strong favourite, e.g. the Warriors playing the Nets, the better team are most likely going to blow their opponents out and the starters could potentially sit for the like quarter if not more of the game. Be aware of this and either look at taking some of the starters unders, or some of the reserves overs, who should play a big role in picking up junk time stats when the game is over in the last quarter.
Before you place your bets, make sure you also check out all the different bookmaker’s lines and prices, as sometimes they can fluctuate quite a lot. You may be able to get a better line at a better price somewhere else. Listed below are some of the best sites at offering NBA player lines.
Always Gamble Responsibly.
This Sunday marks the date for the monster $100,000 AFL tournament at PlayON! We have a special edition of team our AFL fantasy team of the week for the tournament here read more
The Group 1 Winx Stakes is the first Group 1 of the Australian racing season and headlines a huge day at Royal Randwick this Saturday, August 18th! Check out our preview and tips for the day here! read more
The Group 2 P.B. Lawrence Stakes headlines a huge day of horse racing at Caulfield this Saturday, August 18th, as we gear up towards the Spring Carnival! Check out our preview and tips for every race on the card here! read more
You can now bet on the outcome of a range of different lotteries around the world with William Hill's Planet Lottery! See more info here read more
The best Australian sports betting sites insures safe and successful online betting for punters as well as offering the best betting options in Australia. read more
Spread betting has finally made it's way to Australia through new betting agency Pointsbet, we give you a quick guide to spread betting here. read more
With the phenomenon of eSports finally starting to take off in Australia, we thought we'd give you a quick 'how to' guide on betting on eSports in Australia! read more
2018 Brownlow Medal predictions are here as our AFL tipping experts offer round-by-round Brownlow votes, rolling leaderboard and vote trackers for the 2018 AFL season. read more
A quiet week for our 2018 Brownlow Medal leaders with not much change at the top of the leaderboard. Find out who we gave our votes to with our Brownlow vote predictions for Round 21. read more
CrownBet and William Hill have officially merged into the newest Australian betting agency, BetEasy. Changes took place this Monday, the 13th of August, see more info on how it could affect you here read more
What an incredible round of AFL with five games decided by less than a kick! It should make voting interesting come Brownlow night! Here's our Brownlow vote predictions for AFL Round 20. read more