Most Australian betting sites offer plenty of different NBA betting markets for every scheduled game. One of the most interesting, and sometimes most lucrative, is the NBA player performance betting markets. Apart from the absolute mega stars of the game, most player’s stats fluctuate a large amount from night to night, so if you can determine when it is or isn’t going to be a player’s night, you can really take advantage of these player performance NBA prop markets. We will sometimes offer player prop picks in our NBA betting tips, but here are some general tips for making your own decisions when it comes to betting on NBA player performance markets.
Generally, some selected players are given an over/under on a different stat, whether it be points, rebounds, assists or a combination of two or more of them. The line is usually set somewhere around their season average for that particular star eg. James Harden’s season average for points is 28.8, so bookmakers might set his points line at 28.5.
There are a few different key factors that could swing a player into having a good or bad performance on any given night. The bookmakers are usually pretty good at adjusting their lines if something major happens, however, sometimes they go unseen, and sometimes you’ve got a small window to jump on before they are updated.
The biggest factor in my opinion is injuries. When a leading player on a team gets injured, the bookmakers automatically think that their replacement in the starting line-up should get the majority of their production. While it’s true that the replacement will have a spike in stats, usually at least two other players in the starting line-up get an added boost in production that often sees them get the over. Vice versa if an injured player is returning to the line-up.
We saw a classic case of this earlier this season when star Clippers point guard Chris Paul went down with injury. We saw his replacement in the starting line-up, Austin Rivers receive a significant increase but also the likes of Jamal Crawford and J.J Reddick improve their points and assists numbers in Pauls absence. These 2nd and 3rd guys can often go unnoticed by the bookmakers.
Matchups are another key factor. Some teams defend some positions really well while give production to other positions in spades. It’s usually a safe bet to steer clear of the overs when your player is playing against teams like the Spurs or Grizzlies. They defend every position well and rarely let one player dominate a game.
A team that I like to utilise is the Boston Celtics. They defend the guard positions extremely well with Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley holding down defensive duties but on the other hand, they are the worst rebounding team in the league. We saw Andre Drummond, the league’s leading rebounder who’s rebounding line is generally set around 14.5 claim 22 against the Celtics just a few nights ago, which would have been an easy win for the overs.
The best thing to do is study team stats and defence vs positions, a great website to do so is basketballreference.com or rotowire.com
Another thing to keep a close eye on is the game odds. If there’s a strong favourite, e.g. the Warriors playing the Nets, the better team are most likely going to blow their opponents out and the starters could potentially sit for the like quarter if not more of the game. Be aware of this and either look at taking some of the starters unders, or some of the reserves overs, who should play a big role in picking up junk time stats when the game is over in the last quarter.
Before you place your bets, make sure you also check out all the different bookmaker’s lines and prices, as sometimes they can fluctuate quite a lot. You may be able to get a better line at a better price somewhere else. Listed below are some of the best sites at offering NBA player lines.
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