Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday, November 11th.
We have a nine-race card with some nice betting races to look forward to. The track will be rated Good and the rail is in 3m position for the entire circuit.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below. You can also check out our Emirates Stakes Day Preview & Betting Tips here for racing at Flemington, or listen to our Before You Bet Australian horse racing podcast:
Best Bet: Race 4 Bon Amis
Best Value: Race 6 Schedule EW
Happy to take on the favourite SANGITA here with Christian Reith aboard. She disappointed on debut as the short-priced favourite, but it was on a wet track and she should be much better suited on firm ground here. She can bounce back, but there’s others I like. SECRET LADY sizzled along in two trials and with the light weight of 53kg here, I’d expect them to go straight to the front and try to run them off their feet. With the rail out a few meters, she may just be too quick. MADAM ROUGE is also on debut for Chris Waller and Kathy O’Hara. Kathy rode a winner for Waller during the week and I think this filly is a sneaky chance after running good time in her latest trial. She is at each way odds around $7.50 and is worth including. The two Godolphin colts DYNAMITED and RHEINGAU shouldn’t be underestimated. Not a great betting race to start off with here. Watch market.
TIP: Secret Lady / Madam Rouge EW
They’ll have a very tough time of things trying to beat UNFORGOTTEN here, who stamped her potential as a very good filly when charging home from the back of the field last weekend. She’s on the quick back up here and goes up significantly in weight, but she won in seriously impressive fashion and can win again here. She’s hit rock bottom price now, but she doesn’t face a strong field at all. POPULAR the likely danger but not much else to mention in this race.
KARAVALI produced a big win last start over 2000m at Randwick and steps up to the 2400m here, but that last start was on a Soft track, and I think those conditions bring out the best in him. Back on to what should be a very firm surface here may just prove a bit of a tougher task for him. For that reason, at the prices, I’m leaning towards going with LYCURGUS here for Danny O’Brien, who sends this horse up to Sydney as a gelding for the first time. He comes through reasonably god races in Melbourne, and will relish the trip. Gets an easy run from the good barrier, and if the gelding operation improves him, then he’ll go very well here. Daniel Moor comes up for the ride, which is very interesting. LAST WISH could be the value. He showed something third up as expected last start, and he outperformed my expectations on the soft surface. Back on to the firm ground will help him today, and he looks a value chance at $13. OLYMPIC ACADEMY can bounce back from last start when he pulled up with poor post-race recovery.
TIP: Lycurgus / Last Wish EW
This looks a nice race for BON AMIS who tackles city class for the first time in his career. He’s three from three in the country and returned to the track with a dominant win at Newcastle last start, winning by more than four lengths. Strikes a very winnable race here with the small field and should be able to break through at the short odds. BLOWING KISSES has claims, as does MAGICAZ but he’s never placed at the distance, while CURDLED was a Stakes winner in Brisbane in June and returns to the track here. Would be surprised if Bon Amis wasn’t the winner here.
TIP: Bon Amis
The scratching of I AM SERIOUS really opens this field up and leaves just the six runners. I’m quite keen on MISS DUBOIS here, who resumed with a fair first up run behind I Am Serious at Randwick. This horse always tends to need her first up run, with just one placing from four first up runs, but generally improves second up. She should be close enough in the small field, and it’s a winnable race for her at $4.20. INTUERI looks the hardest to beat after following up a Canterbury win with another good performance at that track last start. Down in weight and should get a good run; she’s building a nice little record and should be fighting out the finish here. CALYPSO BAY can be the big improver with the featherweight, while BE LIKE DAD can build on a good last start performance. Happy to take on MORTAR PLATOON who looks to go best on soft tracks but won’t get that here. SHALMANESER needs to improve. Got this between Miss Dubois and Intueri.
TIP: Miss Dubois
Really keen to be on SCHEDULE here each way AT $6. This horse always performs well in these Highway races and has won one before. She finished 2nd in the Highway Consolation last start behind the very smart Don’t Give A Damn, who would be $1.40 here. Has a good record at this distance, draws well and gets a positive jockey booking considering who is available at this time of year in Sydney. This is a drop in grade on what he faced last start so I’m keen to back her each way 1X3 at the price. ROSEITO has run well in this grade before and resumed with a nice win at Muswellbrook. Can be competitive from the good draw. Much the same can be said about HIGHWAY SIXTYSIX who was competitive when running 4th in a Highway Handicap two starts ago before breaking the maiden convincingly last start. ISLA TRISTANA next best.
TIP: Schedule EW
Keen to take on the favourite STONEBROOK at the prices with JUST DREAMING, who we backed second up when running 2nd to I Am Serious. This horse has a great record at this track and distance, carries a similar weight to last start and draws nicely again in barrier 2. Should take a sit right behind Stonebrook and can pounce late. Will take $4.20 to roll the fave. STONEBROOK won’t be an easy beat though, having won three of its four starts, and only going down narrowly to Passage Of Time last start. He’ll go straight to the front once again and be very tough to run down. DAGNY has been better at her past two but she’s struggling to win another race. CORDERO was fair first up but generally improves second up. Drops 6kg here and can be very competitive at each way odds.
TIP: Just Dreaming / Cordero EW
ZONK was unlucky last start when trapped three-wide the trip on speed, before being edged out by the outsider of the field Neyla’s Girl. That horse had support on the day, but went on to finish unplaced in a Highway Handicap, so there is some questions to be asked about the form. She goes up in grade here, but drops from 59.5kg to 51kg, and draws a perfect barrier to get a lovely run throughout. No doubt she will go very close, but at the odds I’m a touch more interested in a couple of others. IN TIMES OF WAR is knocking on the door for another win. Of course, last start was the time we backed her heavily each way, and was the only time in her 12-start career that she’s missed a place! She blew the start, was held up and restrained throughout the run, ducked back to the inside and charged into 4th. Not long after the line, she was in front, so if she jumps evenly here, she should give this a good shake at $5. We’re getting $1.80 for her to place (was $190 available) and I think at those odds we can have a big each way bet 1x3. Tye Angland takes over from the apprentice and barrier 4 should see her get a lovely run. VIGILANCE has had early support and I’d expect him to make sharp improvement on his first up effort. He was undefeated in four runs during his first campaign, and while they were all at Newcastle, the opposition he beat towards the back end were horses similar to this class. YOUR WAY could go well at double figure odds if he were to return at his best.
TIP: In Times Of War / Vigilance EW
REDOUBLE has been hammered in betting at his first two starts back from a spell this campaign, but has failed on both occasions. He dropped out to finish last at Randwick two weeks ago, and has since been back to the trials. It would be just our luck to see him come out and win now that we’re jumping off, but he’s burned me twice already this prep and others appeal here. KING DARCI has improved with each start this prep and now comes into this third up from a spell, where he’s previously won two of his three starts. Carries a 3kg apprentice but barrier 1 makes life very easy, and he looks to have conditions to suit him here so expect him to go very close at $4.60. DREAMFORCE has a great first up record and returns as a gelding for the first time here. He should have won first up last prep, which would have taken his first up record to three wins from four starts. The only query with him is also the 3kg apprentice, but with two trials under the belt he should go very close here. INVICTA finished his prep in great style last time in work, so keep him safe. If he returns in the same form he’ll go well here at double figure odds. Backing both King Darci and Dreamforce here.
2, 8, 9, 11, 13
4, 5, 9
2, 3, 5, 9
1, 3, 4, 6, 8
$100 = 33.33%
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
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