What was once a heavyweight clash, has now turned into a heavyweight vs minnows clash, as the Storm head to the SCG to take on the Roosters. Obviously, the Storm are still one of the best teams in the competition, and should be too good on Saturday night. Whilst perhaps the description of ‘minnows’ may be a little harsh, the Roosters are clearly a team in decline right now.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi via Picklebet. Be sure to check out our NRL Tips page regularly, as we preview every single game all season long.
NRL Round 20 Preview & Betting Tips
Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm
SCG, Saturday 15th July, 7:35pm (AEST)
The Roosters are off the bye in round 19, with their last matchup coming in round 18, where they went down 18-16 to the Sea Eagles. It was close to a must-win game for the Roosters, and they played really poorly. The Roosters missed 46 tackles, made 10 errors, and gave away 8 penalties in the 18-16 loss at 4 Pines Park.
As for the Storm, they are also off the bye, with their round 18 clash ending in a rough 34-16 home loss to the Panthers. The Storm were brilliant for the opening half hour, leading 14-0, however were rail-roaded by the Panthers for the final 50 minutes, going down 34-16. The Storm rarely loses two in a row, and need the win this week to keep their top 4 hopes alive.
The Storm opened 4.5-point favourites on the road, and since the news broke of James Tedesco being rested, money has come in on the Storm, who now sit as 5.5-point favourites. At full strength, I make the Storm a 7.5-point favourite over the Roosters, however I am concerned that players may be rested.
The total opened 42.5, with unders money pouring in, with the number bet down to 40.5. I still believe there’s room to move here, with my fair total sitting at 36.5. And whilst I do like the under in this clash, it’s the team total that I’m going to concentrate on here.
The Roosters are averaging just 16.4 points per game this season, good for 16th best in the NRL. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Storm are conceding just 19.2 points per game, the 4th least in the NRL. Despite this being a home game for the Roosters, I like the Storm to hold the Roosters to 3 tries or less in this matchup. For reference, the Roosters have only scored 19+ in one of their past 9 clashes with the Storm. These matches are notoriously tight, and with the Roosters struggling to score points this season, and missing James Tedesco, I’ll take the Roosters team total under.
Sydney Roosters (team total) Under 17.5
$1.97 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Storm to Win – The Storm should be far too good in this one, even though the game is in Sydney. The Roosters have been poor for long enough now to suggest it is more than just an aberration.
Under 45.5 Points – See above, I expect a low total in this game, with my fair just 36 total points.
Xavier Coates (1+ try) – Coates has 9 tries this season, and is coming up against a Roosters right-side defence that has leaked 24 tries this year.
Daniel Tupou (1+ try) – If there is a weakness to the Storm defence, it is their edge defence, with the Melbourne side conceding 82% of all their tries on edges. Whilst Tupou has struggled to get across the line this season, I expect him to get one here.
