Ah September, it’s the most wonderful time of the year. With both footy codes heading into their finals series, the sleeping giant of the international football codes is awaking from its slumber. The NFL, the biggest game in the US of A, kicks off in early September, and we couldn’t be more excited! After an exhilarating season last year which saw the Los Angeles Rams crowned Super Bowl champions, we look forward to the new season with anticipation and much fervour. Here, we look at the NFL futures market and some early NFL season bets worth looking at for your portfolio.
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NFL Season Preview & Betting Tips
MVP
Josh Allen is the favourite to win his first ever MVP award, and few would argue, given the backing of the Buffalo Bills to go all the way this year. There’s a great case to be made for Allen, with MVP’s regularly coming from teams in the 1 or 2 seeds in their respective conference. With the Bills looking a great chance at a high seed in the AFC, Allen must come into consideration. But there’s two other quarterbacks for AFC teams that I have my eye on.
Herbert had a typical year 2 breakout season last year, going from a great rookie season to an elite quarterback over the course of his two seasons in the league. Last year, Herbert was 2nd in the league for pass attempts and total yards and was 3rd in the league in touchdown throws. He managed this on a team that finished with a 9-8 record and missed the playoffs. With a squad now that is considered a serious Super Bowl contender, Herbert should be right in the mix for the MVP award, as well as most yards and most touchdowns, two other bets worth considering.
Justin Herbert – Los Angeles Chargers
$11
The fact that Burrow and Herbert are out of the same draft class is crazy, and both have launched themselves into the elite category of quarterback after just two seasons in the league. There were concerns for Burrow’s longevity in the game going back just 12 months, as the Bengals quarterback came back slowly from a devastating knee injury in his rookie campaign. He, and the Bengals, surprised everyone by having a tremendous season and making the Super Bowl, coming within an Aaron Donald explosion of potentially claiming the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Whilst not statistically as dominant as Herbert, Burrow and the Bengals have every bit as good a chance at a top 2 seed as the Chargers, and if Burrow leads them there, he’s right in the mix for the Most Valuable Player award.
Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals
$14
Offensive player of the year
Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor are the favourites for this award, after they went back and forth last year as favourites to win it, with Kupp eventually prevailing after an historic season last year. With both coming off career years, you’d have to expect some negative regression, giving some other offensive weapons a shot. Enter Justin Jefferson, the 3rd year wideout for the Vikings. Last year, Jefferson finished 2nd in receiving yards, 4th in receptions and targets, and 6th in receiving touchdowns. Now, entering his third season, I expect to see those numbers get even better. Part of my belief lies in the natural progression of a standout #1 wide receiver, with a larger part being down to a change at Head Coach for the Vikings. With defensive minded Mike Zimmer being shown the door, the Vikings have hired former Rams Offensive Coordinator Kevin O’Connell, whose offense will surely blow the doors of the ‘run first’ type offence Zimmer had the Vikings run. I also like Jefferson ‘most receiving yards’ as a bet.
Justin Jefferson – Minnesota Vikings
$17
Defensive player of the year
With 22.5 sacks last season, TJ finally got that elusive defensive player of the year award he has coveted for so long. Whilst there’s every chance Watt regresses this season, I believe with the aid of the strong defensive side of the ball for the Steelers, he is every chance of going back-to-back. There are the obvious other contenders in Aaron Donald and Myles Garrett, but I’m backing my man TJ to get it done and secure his second straight 20+ sack season.
TJ Watt – Pittsburgh Steelers
$10
Offensive rookie of the year
Whilst this award is generally reserved for quarterbacks, we saw last year the value a blue-chip wide receiver can bring an offense. And whilst Pickens wasn’t necessarily thought of as the ‘blue chip’ prospect coming out of Georgia, the latest in a line of quality wide receivers drafted by the Steelers appears to have “it”. From the moment training camp started, Pickens has shown to have the confidence needed and the swagger associated with big time wide receivers. With a great history of hitting on receivers later in the draft, I trust the Steelers have done it again with Pickens.
George Pickens – Pittsburgh Steelers
$13
Defensive rookie of the year
Hutchinson was the can’t miss edge rushing prospect coming out of this year’s draft, and after he was passed on by the Jaguars in favour of the athletic monster Travon Walker, the Detroit Lions raced their selection card to the board. Hutchinson showed in the pre-season and training camp what he showed throughout his college career, hard work, tenacity, and a willingness to get the job done. He’s also quickly become a much-loved member of the locker room, and he seems at home with the Lions. 10+ sacks is a real possibility for Hutchinson, and with that sort of production he will be in with a great chance at this award.
Aiden Hutchinson – Detroit Lions
$6.50
Team to make the playoffs – Yes
This is a stale number still up at TAB, with the Panthers being as low as $4.65 at other books. The NFC is such a poor conference, that any team that can sniff 8 or 9 wins this season is a great chance at a wild card. Whilst the Panthers aren’t perfect, they showed last year that their young defence can do a job against teams that aren’t elite. And with the pickup of Baker Mayfield at quarterback, the Panthers have a signal caller who knows how to win games. Personally, I believe this number is crazy, and with just a little bit of luck the Panthers can sneak into the wild card week.
The Jags are an awful franchise; however, they’ve done a fantastic job in bringing in former Philadelphia Eagles Head Coach Doug Pederson. Pederson knows how to get the best out of his quarterback, and I expect to see a massive leap from year 1 to year 2 for Trevor Lawrence. He was put in a very ordinary position last season, however with some solid free agent pickups, as well as an above average draft, the Jags are on my radar this season to make a big jump up the standings. It helps that they’re in the weakest AFC division by far.
Jacksonville Jaguars
$5.50
Division Winner
There’s always a concern with the “Superbowl hangover” for teams that can’t get it done on the big day, however I don’t see it with the Bengals. They’ve strengthened their offensive line considerably, which was their weakest position group last year. Burrow and Chase have had another off-season together, and the Bengals appear well positioned to compete for AFC North championships for years to come. The Ravens are their biggest challengers; however, I see the Bengals as a more well-rounded team and believe they’ll get it done eventually.
Cincinnati Bengals – AFC North
$2.80
This is as close to a lock as you can get in my opinion, well at this price anyway. The Colts looked incredibly good last year, with Carson Wentz at quarterback. And despite Matt Ryan being on the wrong side of 35, I believe he is a far better quarterback then Wentz. With the Titans appearing to be going headfirst into a rebuild and the Texans and Jaguars not yet good enough to compete for the divisional title, the Colts should walk to this division with a minimum of fuss, only needing 9 or 10 wins.
Indianapolis Colts – AFC South
$1.83
The AFC West is a murderer’s row of contenders this year, with all four teams having legitimate claims to a playoff spot. However, I think this is clouding people’s judgement on the Chiefs. Yes, they lost Tyreek Hill, but they still have arguably the best player in the NFL pulling the strings, and as good as I believe the Chargers will be this year, I still think the Chiefs get it done during the regular season with their experience. It’s tight, but the price is right to get on in my opinion.
Kansas City Chiefs – AFC West
$2.70
There’s a lot of buzz around the Eagles this year, after they had probably the best draft of any team and a solid free agency. At the time of writing, they are still out strengthening their squad, trading for Saints safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. Whilst I agree with a lot of the buzz, I’m not sold on Jalen Hurts being able to get the job done. In the Eagles favour, they have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this year, and I’ve got them winning 11 games, with the potential for the number 1 seed in the NFC. The Cowboys are going backwards, and have suffered some big injuries during pre-season, so I believe this year the Eagles will win the NFC East, even if I don’t expect them to go on with the job in the playoffs.
Philadelphia Eagles – NFC East
$2.95
The reigning Super Bowl champions come into the season as the 5th favourite to go back-to-back this year, and it’s hard to argue. They have lost several players, as you would expect, however they’ve done their best to replace those players. They still have one of the best coaches in the NFL, and their squad is as top heavy as anyone’s. Their main competition for the NFC West is the San Francisco 49ers, and I give the Rams a big edge against them. Trey Lance is slated to start in his 2nd season at quarterback, and with the young quarterback essentially sight unseen, I don’t know how the bookies can have the 49ers priced this closely to the Rams.
Los Angeles Rams – NFC West
$2.30
Super Bowl Winners
As mentioned above, I’m predicting a huge year from Justin Herbert in season 2022-23. He is an elite quarterback with a cannon of an arm, and the Chargers have not stood still in the off-season, getting the young signal caller as much help as they could afford. Head Coach Brandon Staley has one more year of experience, which I believe will do him wonders. He already has one of the most analytical minds in the NFL, and the experience of a disappointing 2021-22 season will see him much more focused this year. The free agency additions, particularly on defence (Khalil Mack, JC Jackson and Kyle Van Noy), will see this team just as dangerous as any other on both sides of the ball. Obviously, the easy choice here is the Buffalo Bills, they appear primed and have a tremendous roster, but if you’re looking for value for money, I can’t go past this Chargers team.
