Horse Racing Betting Tips - June Results

Fri, 07/07/2017 - 12:37pm, tim_tips

This month marks two years since I joined the Before You Bet team as the site's resident horse racing analyst, and it's only fitting that we approach that milestone coming off the back of one of our most successful months together in June.

Having sat down and calculated every single betting tip put up onto the site throughout the month, the statistics make for pretty good reading. Tips are provided for two meetings each Monday and two meetings each Wednesdays (Melbourne and Sydney), but the big focus is on the comprehensive previews for two metropolitan tracks each Saturday. This typically covers Melbourne and Sydney, but we sacrifice one of those meetings in order to cover a more significant meeting during carnival times in Brisbane, Adelaide or Perth.

June of course played host to the Brisbane Winter Carnival and so our Saturday previews have been covering Brisbane and Melbourne for the entire month.

In assessing the results of our tips throughout June, it is clear that the Saturday selections produce far better results and significantly greater profit than the midweeks, which hardly comes as a surprise to me.

I put this down to a few reasons:

  • Midweek racing is far more unpredictable with inferior animals and often unreliable form

  • Midweek jockeys are less reliable from a betting perspective, and simply not as good as the top riders (I'm more so talking about Mondays in the bush)

  • Less familiar tracks than the standard city tracks that we are accustomed to doing form for week in, week out

The Saturday form can also take anywhere from 4-10 hours to complete, based on field sizes, depth and the form in general, so it's no surprise that the Saturday results are significantly better.

What The Stats Say

In total, we tipped 221 horses across approximately 160 races and 20 meetings in June. This is because we often include an each-way selection along with our top selection if one stands out at value, hence more runners than races.

From those 221 runners, five were scratched, leaving us with 216 runners and a whopping 51 winners! That's a strike rate of 24% runners to winners, and a strike rate of 32% for races that we tipped the winner for.

Of course that doesn't tell the full story so let's delve deeper. The average price of the 51 winners was $5.58. Given we don't do recommended staking plans, calculating the profits was obviously going to have its flaws, but for the purpose of getting a number we can do it one of two ways:

  1. A $10 stake on every single tip to win would have resulted in a total outlay of $2100, a return of $2783.50, therefore a profit of $683.50 and a Return On Investment of 32%.

  2. A $10 stake on every tip to win - but $5 each way for each way selections - would have resulted in a total outlay of $2100, a return of $2562.05, therefore a profit of $462.05 and a 21% ROI.

As aforementioned, Saturdays proved far superior in terms of profit. We tipped 70 races in total on Saturdays in June, but that was brought down to 68 after two scratchings. From those 70 races, we tipped 99 horses after scratchings, with 23 winners, making it a 23% strike rate of runners to winners, and a 34% strike rate for races to winners.

Of the $683.50 profit from a $10 stake on every runner in June, $620.50 of that came from Saturday winners. For the $10 on every runner and $5 each way for each way runners, $315.50 of the $462.05 profit was from Saturday winners.

So as you can see, the Saturday selections were really what boosted the month's profit, but we were still well above water from the midweek selections too despite the figures being less glamorous.

For me, there were two clear highlights for the month, which both occurred on the same day - June 24. The first was tipping six winners from eight races at Flemington, with our best bet of the day unfortunately scratched from the last race (Samovare). Included in those winners were Overstep at $10 (and the quinella with Invincible Al), Encosta Line at $10 and Riyadh at $15. The second was over at Doomben in the Tatts Tiara, where Tycoon Tara won at $26 as one of our two selections in the race, the other being In Her Time (3rd).

You can find every winner for the month of June below, as put up on www.beforeyoubet.com.au under 'Horse Racing Tips'.

Date

Track

Selection

Price

3/06/2017

Doomben

Pardoe

$4.00

3/06/2017

Doomben

Snitty Kitty

$5.00

3/06/2017

Doomben

Egg Tart

$3.10

3/06/2017

Doomben

Bonny O'Reilly

$3.50

3/06/2017

Moonee Valley

Wanted Diva

$5.50

3/06/2017

Moonee Valley

Camdus

$3.50

3/06/2017

Moonee Valley

Gallic Chieftain

$3.20

3/06/2017

Moonee Valley

Katsuro

$4.50

5/06/2017

Goulburn

Danzie

$4.30

5/06/2017

Goulburn

Mr Tickets

$2.10

5/06/2017

Warrnambool

Mujadale

$2.25

5/06/2017

Warrnambool

The Dominator

$2.20

7/06/2017

Sandown

Invictum Domina

$4.60

7/06/2017

Sandown

Don'tbabylon

$7.00

10/07/2017

Doomben

All Over Bosanova

$4.40

10/07/2017

Doomben

Miss Gunpowder

$5.50

10/07/2017

Doomben

Religify

$3.80

10/07/2017

Flemington

Invincible Al

$10.00

14/06/2017

Canterbury

Star Galaxy

$3.00

14/06/2017

Canterbury

Reneged

$5.50

14/06/2017

Canterbury

Mana

$6.00

14/06/2017

Sandown

Mulk

$2.35

17/06/2017

Ipswich

William Wallace

$5.00

17/06/2017

Ipswich

War Baby

$15.00

17/06/2017

Ipswich

Self Sense

$10.00

21/06/2017

Bendigo

Our Mallee Hoff

$3.20

21/06/2017

Bendigo

Smokin' Bella

$3.10

21/06/2017

Bendigo

Willi Willi

$5.50

21/06/2017

Canterbury

Domed

$8.50

21/06/2017

Canterbury

Estikraaj

$4.20

21/06/2017

Canterbury

Noire

$2.30

21/06/2017

Canterbury

Philosophy

$3.40

24/06/2017

Doomben

Cruising Speed

$4.60

24/06/2017

Doomben

Tycoon Tara

$26.00

24/06/2017

Flemington

Royal Symphony

$2.15

24/06/2017

Flemington

Overstep

$10.00

24/06/2017

Flemington

Encosta Line

$10.00

24/06/2017

Flemington

Ability

$4.20

24/06/2017

Flemington

Riyadh

$15.00

24/06/2017

Flemington

Cannyescent

$3.10

26/06/2017

Ehuca

Khanmosh

$15.00

26/06/2017

Ehuca

Bellaria

$4.40

26/06/2017

Ehuca

Atlantic Fox

$6.00

26/06/2017

Ehuca

Our Gladiator

$4.80

26/06/2017

Wagga

Sweettalkingwilly

$3.20

26/06/2017

Wagga

Class Clown

$5.50

26/06/2017

Wagga

Snippet Of Gold

$3.80

28/06/2017

Warwick Farm

Noviero

$2.60

28/06/2017

Warwick Farm

Roman Son

$3.70

28/06/2017

Warwick Farm

Cosmic Engine

$2.80

28/06/2017

Sandown

Yogi

$2.05

 

We're off to a good start in July with all four best bets winning during the week, as well as one of our best value bets winning at double figure odds. Hopefully we can continue to record months as successful as this as we head towards the Spring Carnival!

As always, thank you for your comments and interaction on Twitter during race days, it really does make everything more enjoyable. You can find me on Twitter at @tim_tips if you're not already following.

Good luck this weekend and beyond!

 

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