Doomben Racing Tips for Saturday, May 20th

Sat, 20/05/2017 - 12:23am, tim_tips

Group 1 racing in Brisbane once again this weekend with the Doomben Cup headlining an 8 race card. There is predicted to be a stack of rain with up to 60mm on Friday and possibly another 15mm on Saturday so the track will be well and truly in the heavy range.

We have betting tips and comments below for every race on the card!

Doomben Racing Tips - Saturday, May 20th

Race 1

Wide open race to start things off and not really anything that stands out. I can find a knock on most of the horses at the top of the market so I'll be having an each way bet on a couple at better odds. HEART OF A WARRIOR comes into this second up after finishing 4 lengths off the winner first up over 1300m. Sharply up to the mile now where he's placed in 9 of his 10 starts over the distance. Has placed at his only start on heavy ground so expecting him to improve today at $9. GULLY COMMAND also has claims with Jeff Lloyd on board.

Tip: Heart Of A Warrior EW

 

Race 2

Pretty keen on PARDOE here. He bolted in first up at Warwick and won dominantly once again last start at Ipswich on a wet track. This is harder than those two races but he looks up to winning this, especially given he's proven to go well on wet ground. $5 looks the best odds around for him. Hardest to beat could be CABIN FEVER who ran well in Group 3 company last start on the Gold Coast, while the value could be MAGNUFIGHTER who won first up at the Sunshine Coast and is bred to love the rain. $16 available for him and with Jeff Lloyd on board that's a decent each way bet.

Tip: Pardoe / Magnufighter EW

CrownBet-Doomben-Saturday-20th

 

Race 3

Good race with a few chances and it could come down to who handles the track conditions. Happy to have a crack at MR MANHATTAN at the $7.50 available. He's never finished outside the top two from five starts when first up and his record on Soft ground is good enough to suggest he could handle the heavy. HIDDEN PEARL could be the best horse in the race and has excellent form at the track and distance, but I'm not convinced he's at his best on Heavy ground so I'll be risking him. The same can be said for PROMPT RESPONSE who beat Hidden Pearl first up but failed at his only start on a heavy track. The big watch will be on THE VIRGINIAN who ran 3rd in last year's Stradbroke Handicap before suffering an injury in Melbourne last prep. His recent trial on heavy ground was excellent so if he is back to his best he will give this a real shake. MISERY and COLINELLE the value hopes.

Tip: Mr Manhattan

 

Race 4

I'm ALL OVER BOSANOVA here. This filly looked pretty special leading into this campaign, having won all four of her starts. She's had nothing go right this time in with two runs where she has been posted wide throughout. She was 4 wide first up before finishing 3L off Tiyatrolani and then 4 wide again last start in Group 3 company. She is bred to go well on the wet track and bolted in by 5 lengths on a Soft 7 previously, so from the good draw today she can bounce back. $6.50 available. 

Tip: All Over Bosanova

 

Race 5

UNTAMED DIAMOND has won both starts this prep in Sydney, one of which was on a Heavy track which we'll be getting today. Both have been over this distance, so with Kerrin McEvoy booked for the ride and the good barrier to go with it, she should be hard to beat in this once again at$3.80. BIDII BABE can go well at $9. She was well backed last start before being caught wide and finishing 0.8L off the winner. Has won 2 out of 3 on Soft ground so that points to her being able to handle the heavy. BROOK ROAD is another that likes the wet tracks and she was never clear in the straight first up at Hawkesbury. Her best form would be good enough to win this and Hugh Bowman is a positive jockey booking. DEE NINE ELLE the blowout at $26 first up from a spell. She's never finished outside the top 2 from three starts on heavy ground and has a good record at the distance. From the inside barrier she can run a big race. 

Tip: Untamed Diamond / Dee Nine Elle EW

 

Race 6

With the rain predicted I am happy to take on DAWN WALL here who failed in Heavy conditions two starts ago in Sydney. That leaves KENEDNA on top at $3.40. She finished 2nd by a lip to Egg Tart in the Group 1 SA Oaks last start, and Egg Tart looks to be pretty special. Kenedna is no hack herself having won three of her last five races, and while she's untested on heavy ground, her breeding suggests she will like it. OKLAHOMA GIRL is the one that will be really suited by the rain here. She's undefeated on heavy ground and her form on wet ground appears to be superior to that on firm ground. The wide draw will see her go back and she will be charging home at $10. THE PINNACLE and CANDIKA the other chances. 

Tip: Kenedna (Best Bet) / Oklahoma Girl EW

Ladbrokes-Doomben-Saturday-20th

 

Race 7

Weir holds a very strong hand here with three strong hopes in ARTICUS, STAR EXHIBIT and AMELIE'S STAR. ARTICUS won impressively last start at Flemington carrying 60kg and although this is a huge step up in grade, he looks like he has the ability to measure up. His form over 2000m is outstanding with four wins from six starts and the last time he raced on a heavy track he won by about 3 lengths. AMELIE'S STAR won as expected against a fairly weak field last start in Adelaide but she will only get better the more she races after a long spell. The step up to 2000m will also see her improve significantly. This is a big step up in grade for her too but if she were to produce the form we saw before her injury then she'd be very competitive. STAR EXHIBIT is the one I'm really excited about. He won well first up over 1400m in Melbourne and like his stablemates will only improve up to 2000m. He's undefeated on wet ground and while he hasn't raced on Heavy ground, I'm not too worried about whether he'll handle it. Blake Shinn is an interesting booking for Weir but he draws to get a great run here. SENSE OF OCCASION is a decent value hope. He grows a leg on wet ground and it was only two starts ago that he finished 3rd behind Winx and only 0.4L off Hartnell over 2000m in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. IT'S SOMEWHAT will go straight to the front an be hard to run down if he gets a cheap sectional. 

Tip: Articus / Star Exhibit EW (Best Value)

 

Race 8

I'm very wary of horses that jump out of their skin for Weir at Warrnambool as that doesn't necessarily convert to their next run. ULMANN did just that first up when bolting in at Warrnambool but I just have a query whether he'll bring that performance to Queensland. In saying that, he's a good horse and that was on a wet track and Weir also said he looked outstanding so I could end up with egg on my face. But I'll be with the SPLURGE who has won five of his last six races in New Zealand, including one at Group 3 level. Is 1/1 on Heavy ground and has finished in the top two at six of his eight starts on Soft ground so the track will be no issue. JUNGLE EDGE will also love the heavy track and the blinkers go back on. He could be the value around the $9 mark.

Tip: Splurge

 

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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!

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