Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for night racing at Cranbourne on Friday, March 9th.
We have an eight-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail in the True position. Typically Cranbourne plays similarly to Moonee Valley, in that it’s advantageous to be close to the speed.
CRANBOURNE RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 9 #6 Ruby Sea
Best Value Bet: Race 5 #6 Dixie Preacher / #8 Into Rio
RACE 1
Maiden race over the 2025m to start things off. Three main chances to my eye. The Lindsay Park-trained (2) Creedence goes on top after two sound efforts in harder races than this at Sandown and Caulfield. Steps straight up to the 2000m now after running over 1400m and 2000m, draws well and should find this easier than what he’s faced so far. The stable has a 21% strike rate at Cranbourne this season and he deserves favouritism at $2.90. Hardest to beat looks (6) Slick Back for Mick Kent and Beau Mertens. He was solid on debut at Werribee when 4th over 1400m. Steps straight up to 2000m now, which would be some concern if he was from any other stable, but Mick Kent is a great trainer of stayers and will have him ready to win. Value looks to be (9) Reality Show who should have finished closer last start but was held up in the last 100m. Up to 2000m looks to suit and $6 is a fair price.
TIP: (2) Creedence / (9) Reality Show EW
RACE 2
Competitive race but looks ideal for (3) Indrabeel to break through. Ran well first up when beaten 2L in BM64 grade at Caulfield and went well again last start when just run down late over 1300m at Bendigo. Up to 1500m here, finds a winnable race and should be right in the finish. The big watch is the market with (9) Think Diamonds, who ran very well in better races than this in the Spring, but is looking for further. Her class may be able to get her to win first up over 1500m, but the market will tell us plenty pre-race. Form behind the likes of Pinot well and truly stands out. (6) Mylex is fairly exposed but recent form behind Ruchla looks good for a race of this nature. The same could be said about (5) Miss Mandito who has good enough form.
TIP: (3) Indrabeel
RACE 3
There’s a few that appeal in this race but none more so than (11) The Wild Cat. This is a first-starter for Richard Laming and the big hint is the fact Ben Melham goes to Cranbourne for just one ride, and this is it. Very astute stable, and Melham wouldn’t go for one ride if it was legless. We haven’t seen any public trials but that is enough of a hint for me to take $7 each way about this horse. (5) Bradbury has been gelded and gets blinkers for the first time, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see sharp improvement. (7) Montmorency is on debut for local trainer Greg Eurell. It looks a fairly thin race so he should be able to run well in this at each way odds. (9) Paint The Stars and (12) Longmu others to include.
TIP: (7) Montmrency EW
RACE 4
(12) Uptown Gal brings the best form to this race without question, and it seems she’s been brought here first up for an easy kill. She’s had two trials leading into this race and although she ran home well in the latest of those, she was under the whip to do so. She’s likely to settle off the pace and she looks short enough in the market. There is $2.50 available (most are around $2.10) but I’ll simply be saving on her and hoping (2) Champenoise wins. This filly looks to have returned a different horse this prep. She did absolutely nothing of note in previous preparations but a good trial was followed by a good first up performance at Kyneton. She should be able to settle on the pace and senior rider Dwayne Dunn takes over from the apprentice for tonight. (3) Miss Arrieta is first up and the stable is in great form, while (7) Golden Aidos is one to keep an eye on on debut. Either back Champenoise and save on Uptown Gal, or take $5.50/$2.00 for a 1x3 each way bet on Champenoise.
TIP: (2) Champenoise
RACE 5
Hard race but two at each way odds appeal. (6) Dixie Preacher comes off a good win over 1400m at Warrnambool and can make the step up to BM64 grade here, up to 1500m. Drawn well and should be able to take a position on speed, and Jamie Mott is a good booking for the ride. $6 in most places. (8) Into Rio is first up from a spell, and the stable have a very good record at Cranbourne this season, with a 24% strike rate. (9) Scensay is a winner of just one race from 16 starts, but his first up run was very good and his third up record suggests he could be competitive here. (7) Golden Fusachi was fairly luckless last start and has won his only previous third up run.
TIP: (6) Dixie Preacher EW / (8) Into Rio EW
RACE 6
Three that interest me here. (1) Startierra is flying and was just given too much to do last start when he had to loop the field about seven-wide with 61kg. He once again carries a big weight here but he draws softly in barrier 4 and with a more economical run, he could run into the finish at $6. (4) King Valour has been racing in harder company and has gone close over this track and distance twice before. Draws well in barrier 1 and can bounce back from a disappointing run last time out. (8) Aurora Miss is flying, and had she drawn better than barrier 13, she’d be a huge chance in this. The barrier means she’s likely to get a long way back, which means she will probably be hitting the line hard late, but might just have to come from too far back.
TIP: (1) Startierra EW
RACE 7
Betting on two in this race. (9) Valente was a good winner over this track and distance two starts ago before running 4th behind Nature Strip. Big step back in class here and has had two quiet trials since that last run. If he repeats his performance from two starts ago he’ll go close here at $4.60. Also very keen to back (2) Tuscany Hero at $6.50. This horse is first up from a spell, and his first up record is three starts for two wins and a 2nd placing. He’s a 1000m specialist with all three of his career wins coming at this distance (from just four starts). He will need a bit of luck from barrier 3 but looks a big chance. Wary of (8) Rioli who is having his first start for Darren Weir after being transferred from Robert Smerdon.
TIP: (2) Tuscany Hero EW
RACE 8
Easily the best race of the night. (6) Ruby Sea returns from a spell here and on her best form, she’d win this. But there has to be a query over 1300m first up from a spell, particularly as her jumpout wasn’t sensational, and her racing pattern means she will get back in the field from barrier 9. Her form behind Spanish Reef is very good for a race like this, and she won first up over 1400m at this track last preparation. $3 is as low as I’d want to go so I’ll lock that in early and trust that she’s just a better horse than these. (8) Crystal Kingdom could be the value at $9. First up here and as mentioned in an earlier preview, the Ellerton/Zahra stable have a 24% strike rate at Cranbourne. Surely he’ll roll forward from barrier 11, which should give him his chance to pinch it. (10) Good Oh was good enough first up in an unsuitable race at the Valley. No surprise if she wins this.
TIP: (6) Ruby Sea / (8) Crystal Kingdom EW
