Caulfield Racing Tips for Saturday, July 15th
Sat, 15/07/2017 - 12:41am, tim_tips
Racing returns to Caulfield in Melbourne this weekend and we have a nine-race program to look forward to. The track is currently rated a Good 4 but there is a bit of rain predicted. Caulfield is a track with good drainage, however, so at the very worst we'll be on a Soft 5. I'd expect it to remain a Good 4 though.
We have comments and tips for every race below.
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Caulfield Racing Tips for Saturday, 15th of July
Pretty keen on one to open the day here but the track must be Good and not Soft for me to back it confidently. That horse is ORIENT LINE. He might only have one win from nine starts this prep, but his form has been very consistent and without much luck too. Five starts ago he charged home over 1300m at Bendigo, four starts ago he ran home strongly and finished 0.4L behind Coldstone (who has since won), three starts ago he ran on strongly behind Cannyescent which is a strong formline, two starts ago he was held up in the straight and never saw any daylight for the final 400m, and then last start he bolted in by over 5 lengths in easier grade at Pakenham. Steps back up in grade here against better horses, but draws very nicely in barrier 3 and has Craig Williams booked to ride. As mentioned, the key is the track condition, because all his wins have come on Good tracks, while he's raced 11 times on Soft ground for 0 wins. Happy to take $5.50 if the track is Good come Race 1. If the track is Soft, it really favours the likes of DATA POINT and PAKAYA PRINCE. Data Point comes out of some stronger races and has never finished outside the top two from six starts over the distance. He draws much better so can sit closer to the speed than last start, but does go up 7kg. He's been around the mark on Good tracks but his two wins have come on Soft or Heavy ground. If it's Good ground, I'll take him on and back Orient Line. Pakaya Prince won in good style after leading last start and if the track is Soft he is the clear value in the race. He's got three wins and three placings from nine starts on Soft ground and can definitely go on with it here at $8.50. We will assume the track will be Good so Orient Line is the tip, but if it's Soft I'll be backing Data Point and Pakaya Prince.
TIP: Orient Line
There has been an absolute avalanche of money for I DID IT AGAIN and it's easy to see why if you look at the trial. Was given a little niggle at about the 400m mark and then closed off really strongly to the line. Generally when the money comes for Eurell runners it is pretty spot on, and given this one has been $10 into $4.25, I think we can follow with confidence. Draws for a perfect run. ALJAWZAA could be the hardest to beat. She returned from a spell in good order with a 2nd placing over 1000m at Sandown. The form out of her debut run has turned out to be strong, and the step up in trip should be suitable. Williams takes the ride for the Hayes/Dabernig team and from barrier 4 she should prove hard to beat. The value in the race could be EVOLUTIONIST who ran 2nd to Takemehomemister by 0.4L on debut at Bendigo. The time they recorded over the 1100m on a Soft 5 was over 2 seconds quicker than Bandipur's 8 length win on a Soft 7 at Moe. Step up in distance suits but the barrier will mean he has to come from a long way off them. $31 looks a big price.
TIP: I Did It Again / Evolutionist EW
Wide open race here with several winning hopes. I've got MOONLITES CHOICE on top but I do think she's found her right price at $3.80 now with the way I see the race being run. From barrier 10 she will get a long way back and there looks to be just the two natural leaders in the race so hopefully there is enough tempo for her to pounce late. The good thing about barrier 10 is that she shouldn't have any traffic issues in the straight like she did last start when held up from the 300m-150m mark. She hit the line nicely when she saw daylight, and her win two starts back suggests she's really hitting her straps and can make amends here. The concern is she's never placed at the track from three starts, but I put that more down to her racing pattern than anything else. I think with a clear run down the outside, she should be able to finish off well enough to win. IF NOT NOW WHEN rates a good hope with the better barrier here. She came from last on the turn in the same race as Moonlites Choice last start and ran home well down the outside. From barrier 5 I'd expect her a touch closer and possibly even ahead of Moonlites Choice entering the straight, which is opposite to last start. Can win. The clear value for me is Chris Waller's filly O'RACHAEL. The key here is getting back onto a firmer track. Both her wins, and the majority of her placings, have come on Good ground. Last start she went backwards on the Heavy track. She wasn't far away in Group 3 company back in New Zealand, and Waller's stable in Melbourne is going very well. Wide draw but I love the booking of Melham instead of Newitt. I think she's a much better hope than the $16 currently on offer.
TIP: Moonlites Choice / O'Rachael EW (Best Value)
KIWIA looks a good thing here and I'm snapping up the $2.20. There's a few reasons why. He won with ease over this track and distance last start and after the claim for Stockdale he gets in with just 0.5kg more weight today. Savvy Dancer also carries 0.5kg extra, All Out Of Love carries 1kg extra, and Royal Order carries 1.5kg extra. So he actually gets in better at the weights than a few of his main dangers. The key last start was being able to settle outside the leader and not well back in the field. From barrier 6 he will be able to get a gun run on pace once again, while Royal Order will be giving him plenty of lengths given he draws barrier 14. The rail was out 7m last start and it's out 10m today so that could make it even harder to make ground from the back. I just see nothing to suggest anything that finished behind him last start can turn the tables, so provided Stockdale doesn't completely butcher the ride, he should just win. I have him rated odds on so $2.20 looks a good price.
TIP: Kiwia (Best Bet)
Really don't like this race. There's a handful of winning chances but nothing that greatly stands out. I would have been pretty keen on ONPICALO based on form but the huge concern for me is the 3kg apprentice that is booked to ride from barrier 12. I think the horse is flying but he rises sharply in weight here and from that barrier I am not confident enough to back him with the jockey that's on. If he can roll across to the lead without doing too much work he'll have no excuses if he doesn't win. Expect COLDSTONE and SHOW A STAR to be thereabouts, but I'm going to have a little nibble on a couple at longer odds. The first of those is VASSAL. He worked home ok to finish 10th first up from a spell, and the key today is coming into this second up. He always takes one run to come good, but his second up form suggests he will improve sharply today. He will settle towards the back from barrier 5 but Dwayne Dunn is a good jockey booking and I think he'll run well at double figure odds. The second horse I'll have something on at big odds is CLAIRVAUX. He comes out of the race won by Coldstone last start, and he worked home in really nice fashion at just his second start back from a 566 day spell. He will strip fitter once again here, draws to get a cozy run, and the last time he was at this distance he won in great style at Flemington. Drops to 54kg here and can show up at $26. There's been a heap of money for Craig Williams' mount BLING DYNASTY. He's returned in really good order from a long spell and it'd be no surprise to see him win.
TIP: Vassal EW / Clairvaux EW
Keen to bet here on two runners. The first is REVOLVING DOOR who has come back really well this prep. He only just got nosed out on the line last start in this grade and he receives 4kg off the winner here with the 3kg claim for Stockdale. He gets in very well at the weights here and from barrier 9 he should be able to slide across and sit outside the leader. The little query is whether he runs out the 1400m strong but he gets absolutely every chance third up from a spell here. $4.60 is a very backable price. The horse that ran him down last start was MY PAISANN who only goes up 1kg in the weights today and rates a very strong winning chance once again. He came from last to win and from barrier 10 you'd expect him to get back once again. He ran past Enigman last start (who finished 3rd) yet Enigman is $4 and My Paisann is $8.50. NIKITAS had no luck last start when trapped three wide without cover. From the plum draw today he can bounce back. THROSSELL the one to keep safe at $21 after being held up the entire straight first up.
TIP: Revolving Door / My Paisann EW
Surely, just surely if SUPIDO turns up at his best today he will win this. Has won four from six first up and the only time he's missed a place first up was in the Group 1 Lightning Stakes in February. Has won two from three at the distance and draws well, so all things being equal he should be very hard to beat. The biggest danger will probably be CHOCOLATE HOLIC. I just can't get my head around what this horse is going to do. We've seen them go to Darren Weir and improve by 5 lengths, and if he has that effect on this horse he can definitely win this. He's had 11 starts for 7 wins and 3 placings in WA, but the only query is whether the 1100m is too short. He's won over 1200m but has never raced at this distance before and Weir suggested 1400m will be his go. I won't be letting him go around without my money, but probably just to cover my bet on Supido. Speaking of horses I can't get my head around, Lord Of The Sky is back after they failed to secure a stud deal for him. He is first up here from a year off the track and as always, trialled very impressively leading into this. His record at the distance isn't flash, and nor is his record first up from a spell, so given he's had close to a year off, I'll take him on today. Also not keen to back him with the jockey booked to ride. Value can be found in MURT THE FLIRT who has won three from four first up from a spell, is undefeated at the distance and can measure up at $14.
Looks another nice race for SULLIVAN BAY here who led from start to finish last start. She was gifted the lead and ran the race to suit her in front. It does look like a few more horses in this race will go forward but she looks like the only one that will genuinely want to lead. If she finds the lead again and gets a couple of cheap sectionals, they'll struggle to run her down again. One of the horses that could be close enough to pounce is ADALITA and I think she represents value at $8. She was three wide without cover on the speed first up and stuck on to finish 2nd to Moonlover who has a decent chance in an earlier race. Her second up record is good and with Allen's claim she carries just 52.5kg. Has a good record at the distance and she should be going close.
TIP: Sullivan Bay / Adalita EW
Competitive finish to the card but it once again looks like SCHISM will have absolutely everything go its way here. His last two wins at Flemington have been the result of a gun run throughout the race from good barriers and that looks like it may happen again from barrier 4. He should just box seat and despite taking on the boys, she is the one to beat at $3.25. Two at value in the race are TRIED AND TIRED and VITAL IMPORTANCE. Tried And Tired has been running consistently well this prep, and his run two starts back was a complete forgive after he was caught three wide without cover from a wide barrier. Comes out of a strong form race last start and has a good record at this track and distance so $13 is appealing. Vital Importance has a great record at this track with two starts for a win and a 2nd. She bounced back to form last start and opened her prep with a win at the track over 1200m. She draws well today and gets a small weight swing on Schism. Can go close at double figures.
TIP: Schism / Tried And Tired EW
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We preview every race at Caulfield this Saturday, September 23rd, and offer our best bets for the day!..read more
We preview every race at Caulfield this Saturday, September 23rd, and offer our best bets for the day!..read more