Caulfield Racing Tips for Saturday April 22nd

Fri, 21/04/2017 - 9:26pm, tim_tips

Caulfield hosts a nine race program this weekend headlined by the Listed Bel Esprit Stakes.

The track is currently rated a Soft 5 and with showers lingering in Melbourne I doubt we'll see much of a change to that.

We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below!

Caulfield Racing Tips - Saturday April 22nd

Race 1

4000m race to start the day! SPUR ON GOLD is simply flying and I don't think the 1kg weight swing he gives to BAYANOVA will really make a difference and I can't see why Bayanova is favourite. Bayanova was under pressure a fair way out at Oakbank last start and Spur On Gold was impressive in winning so the extra distance should favour him more than Bayanova in my opinion. All of Spur On Gold's last four runs have been huge, either getting too far back and storming home or racing without much luck. PRIZE could go closest given he was first up from a 53 day break last start and gets a 2kg weight swing in his favour over Spur On Gold. REFECTORY could improve on a Soft track, while I'll also be having something on the outsider TRENDING HARD who gets in with just 52.5kg and is looking for extra ground. 

Tip: Spur On Gold

 

Race 2

Really keen on PAY UP BRO here. He normally takes two or three runs to hit his straps but the key for him today is the Soft track. His only two wins on turf have come on Soft ground, and while he's still good on Good ground, he hasn't won from 12 starts on it. He gets a decent drop in grade here and with the claim only carries 57.5kg. Should get a good run in midfield from barrier 6 and although he's yet to win at this distance, he's run some good races in harder grade and on Good ground. He's perfectly placed to win today. MR CHURCHILL is flying and is progressing through the grades at each run. He steps up again in grade here but receives some weight relief as a result. Going very well at the distance but my query today will be the Soft ground as he's yet to win from three starts on it. Carries just 1kg less than Pay Up Bro despite stepping up in grade and the other horse coming down in grade, that suits Pay Up Bro better. IRISH OPTIMISM the value.

Tip: Pay Up Bro (Best Bet)

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Race 3

BURNING FRONT is absolutely thrown in at the weights here. To express just how well weighted he is, he drops 2.5kg from last start (when he was favourite) while Zebrinz who ran in the same race carries 4kg extra today! Burning Front's problem last start was always going to be the big weight but more so the wide alley which forced him to do a lot of work to lead. Back down in grade today, down in weight and much better drawn in a small field, looks a good thing if he hasn't been gassed by the last start. ENTRE NOUS could be the biggest danger today purely because of the Soft ground. This horse was a winner over this distance on Soft ground last start in the Benalla Cup, which took his record on Soft ground to three wins and a 2nd from four starts. 

Tip: Burning Front

 

Race 4

RUTHVEN looks very, very well placed here dropping back from Group 1 and Group 2 company to Open company with set weights. His last start run was a 4th to Jon Snow beaten 2.1L in Group 1 company which reads extremely well for this. Previous to that was beaten 0.75L in Group 2 company over the distance, so the drop back from 2400m to 2000m isn't greatly concerning. Biggest danger could be ROCKSTAR REBEL who has just got too far back and been asked to do too much in recent starts. Steps up to 2000m now and should go close. HARD CALL has won four of his last five and is flying. Has to carry the weight but has done that with success before.

Tip: Ruthven

 

Race 5

Pretty keen on JE SUIS TYCOON here. We were on her last start on debut at big odds and she motored home to finish 2nd to the talented Speed Street and that's going to turn out to be a strong form line I think. Drawn perfectly here, the extra 200m in distance will really suit her and she's a clear top pick in this. PURE SCOT ran 3rd behind her last start when she was first up and there may not be a lot between them. Her debut win was very good and from barrier 4 she too will get a good run in transit. The value in the race could be Hayes and Dabernig's runner on debut WANTED DIVA who Hayes seems to have a pretty big opinion of. $26 around for her.

Tip: Je Suis Tycoon

 

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Race 6

Looks a race in two here and FRENCH EMOTION has been absolutely thrown in at the weights. She is Group 1 placed racing under set weights and penalties with just a 2kg spread in the weights, so the burden of top weight is offset by that. Her Melbourne form is outstanding and it was only two starts ago that she was placed in a Group 2 behind I Am A Star. Last start she just had too much to do from so far back under the big weight. The huge positive today is that Newitt is off and Ben Melham takes over. WHISTLE BABY looks the logical danger after progressing nicely in her three starts this prep. The queries for her are six starts on Soft ground for zero placings and nine starts at the track for two placings. Very keen on French Emotion.

Tip: French Emotion

 

Race 7

Looks a fair bit of pace on here with the likes of Faatinah and Rocket Tommy contesting the lead , while Legless Veuve, Crystal Dreamer and Mahuta will also look to be on pace. I think that sets it up for a couple of others coming from off the pace. MALIBU STYLE ran a great race first up in Melbourne behind Crystal Dreamer which I didn't really expect as his second up run is normally when he starts to hit his straps. That tells me that he should be cherry ripe today and with the pace on he may be able to take a position and just pounce on them late. Trainer Neville Parnham listed him as his best of the weekend including his runners in WA. O'MALLEY has a superb fresh record and an even better record on Soft ground so if the track is as I expect it to be, and the pace is as good as I expect it to be, it will really suit him coming from the back. His first up run last prep was behind Heatherly, and his win was over Jungle Edge, so his formlines are strong. KAEPERNICK drops from Group 1 company to Listed grade and should be very competitive here. Good race!

Tip: Malibu Style / O'Malley

 

Race 8

Another good race with a number of chances. If TYCOON TARA turns up in her best form she'll win. She won three of her five races last prep and some of her scalps included Le Romain, Rebel Dane and Dixie Blossoms. She was disappointing first up at Randwick but she was caught four wide without cover. Prepared to stick with Team Snowden as they have a pretty fair idea! She should be able to box seat behind Prussian Vixen and Miss Promiscuity. RICH CHARM is flying and his last two times for the 1200m have been solid. Draws to get a good run. KEN'S DREAM was good when beating his own age group last start. Steps up in class here, takes on the older horses and draws sticky in barrier 12 but he's a good horse and can launch late if the pace is on. The query in the race is LUCKY LIBERTY. i would prefer him second up but he's won fresh before, is undefeated at Caulfield and he is undefeated from five starts over 1200m! Big ask carrying 59kg first up over 1200m in this grade but he's a good horse on his day.

Tip: Tycoon Tara

 

Race 9

SWORD OF LIGHT has been heavily backed already but at the price of $2.60 I'll be taking her on. I thought the win of GREVISTE last start was quite impressive and he hit the line really hard over the 1300m which suggests to me he is crying out for the mile. Fromparis Withlove came out of that race and won her last start so the form has bee franked and from the good draw he looks a good eachway bet at $7.50. KAZIO ran 3rd in the same race Sword Of Light ran 2nd in before her last start victory, but meets her 2kg worse off at the weights here. That was over 1400m though and he was charging home so the extra distance could see him turn the tables. THINK BABE will need a stack of luck from the wide gate but I expect they'll roll forward. His last start win was after a short let up so he should be much fitter for this. 

Tip: Greviste EW (Best Value)

 

 

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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!

 

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