Super Saturday action kicks off at the Bulldogs traditional home ground at Belmore, as they host a visiting Broncos team. The Bulldogs are desperate to avoid the wooden spoon but face a tough test to make it back-to-back victories here. The Broncos are 2nd on the competition ladder but now must contend with the post-Origin fatigue which will impact their key players. This is the point their season fell apart last year, and they will want to avoid a similar outcome at all costs.
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NRL Round 20 Preview & Betting Tips
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs vs Brisbane Broncos
Belmore Sports Ground, Saturday 15th July, 3pm (AEST)
The Bulldogs bounced back from a 66-nil flogging by the Knights in Round 18 with a spirited 36-32 victory over the Rabbitohs. On the surface, that may sound impressive, but it should be noted that their opponents were fielding an inexperienced and weakened team. It was a win nonetheless and one which will add confidence to this playing roster. They led most areas statistically, with a highlight being their 9 line breaks and making more total and post-contact metres than their opponents. They will need to improve on that match if they are to be competitive here though and shouldn’t be complacent with one such victory.
The Broncos had the Bye last week and carried winning momentum into their week off after a 24-16 ‘come from behind’ victory over the Dolphins. After giving up a 14-6 HT lead, the Broncos were trailing 16-14 with 15 minutes remaining. Two tries in the final 12 minutes capped off a gritty victory; it was a vital win for their 2023 chances too as in 2022, it would’ve been a result they surrendered. They were the superior team in most areas. They dominated possession (55%), had a higher completion rate (81% vs 70%), made more metres and post contact metres, and missed fewer tackles. They challenge for them is maintaining a high standard while also balancing out fatigue levels of players returning from representative duties. This is a game that they should win and need to perform to that standard to keep their Top 4 hopes alive.
A lot will get written about this game being taken back to their ‘spiritual’ home ground. To put things into perspective, the Bulldogs only have a 43% winning record here compared to the Broncos 100% (1 game for 1 win in the NRL era). They’ve also won just 1 of the past 5 games they have taken back here. Interestingly, they have won 4 out of their past 5 home games against the Broncos but that will count for little, as the Broncos have won 5 out of the past 6 meetings between these two sides. You cannot get caught up in the performance of the Bulldogs last week. Their win only masked how close they came to losing against a spirited ‘back up’ team. They still have a host of issues, but that victory will give them confidence. Unfortunately, it is unlikely that it’ll be enough to overcome their opponents here. The Broncos have an edge in their attack, averaging 23ppg compared to the Bulldogs 17ppg; with Reynolds leading the way, they should place themselves in the right attacking positions. Defence is where the greatest gap between the two sides exists; the Bulldogs concede an average of 29ppg while the Broncos have a resolute defence, with an average of just 17ppg.
With the Broncos likely to win, the biggest decision comes down to whether they can cover the line (6.5 points). The season averages say this is likely but there are key players missing for the visitors and the possibility that others may be rested; this includes Walsh (suspension), Haas (injury), Carrigan (Origin) and Oates (injury). Attacking power and experience remains though and it should be enough to get them the victory in a convincing manner.
Broncos -6.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Popular bookmaker Picklebet have launched their Same Game Multis for both the AFL and NRL. There are plenty of markets to choose from an excellent odds on offer, so make sure to check them out!
Farnworth, Staggs & Cobbo 1+ Try Each – All three players have been in brilliant attacking form lately. Cobbo scored 3 tries in Round 18 and has 14 for the year. Farnworth scored 2 tries in that same match and has 10 for the year. Staggs doesn’t score out of turn, but he is the equal third try scorer for them this year with 8 and increases the value of this multi.
