Have losses to Ireland, South Africa and Argentina this season made the All Blacks ripe for an ambush when they clash with the Wallabies in Melbourne on Thursday night?
That’s the big question. You might say “yes” but here is the thing. The Irish, the Springboks and the Pumas uncorked superb displays to topple the three-time Rugby World Cup champions. None of those epic victories were strolls. Every metre of ground, every physical hit, every precision piece of ruck ball won and every regather of a high kick was hard work done well.
The Wallabies have to step up in a huge way to claim a victory in the opening leg of the 2022 Bledisloe Cup at Marvel Stadium this Thursday night.
Our rugby expert Jim Tucker steered you to a $1.95 collect on an eight-leg multi for the Women's and a $3.25 win for Fiji in the Men's Rugby World Cup Sevens in Cape Town last weekend.
What’s in store for the Bledisloe Cup?
2022 Bedisloe Cup: Australia v New Zealand
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, Thursday September 15th 7:45pm (AEST)
The All Blacks have won 16 of the past 20 Tests played against the Wallabies. That’s a landslide. What is more relevant is the 3-3 ledger in the most recent Tests played on Australian soil. The Wallabies do have a much better track record at home.
If you judge the Wallabies on the first Test win over England in Perth, the comeback to beat Argentina in Mendoza and the excellent display to topple the Springboks in Adelaide, the Wallabies have a good shot in this Bledisloe Cup opener. All those performances had the physicality and the precision in putting points on the scoreboard that could stretch the Kiwis all the way.
It’s best to forget the shortcomings in Brisbane, Sydney (twice) and San Juan when the Wallabies just didn’t put it together.
There are some big changes for the Wallabies. The recall of veteran Bernard Foley at flyhalf has been accompanied by a wise decision to pair him with halfback Jake Gordon. Foley is a No.10 who runs the game so a sharp pass from Gordon is what he wants. Nic White largely runs the game from halfback when he’s paired with Noah Lolesio. It’s a different balance.
Gordon, Bernard Foley and centres Lalakai Foketi and Len Ikitau have no history as a combination so there is some fingers-crossed to how they’ll click. Any hesitation in defence or a simple dropped ball and the likes of All Blacks centre Rieko Ioane will be streaking away. Ioane has scored nine tries in 12 Tests against the Wallabies and set up another four so he’s a serial pest on nights like these.
The Wallabies have plumped for a bigger, more physical backrow with Pete Samu and Rob Leota starting beside Rob Valetini. The Australians do have to smash some errors out of the Kiwis and win the collisions so there is sense to this on paper. Samu has been consistently in form off the bench this season.
No specialist No.7 in the starting pack is borderline un-Australian but Fraser McReight will be still be buzzing as a factor soon enough with 30 or so minutes off the bench. He’ll make his presence felt.
McReight, Jordan Petaia, Scott Sio, Darcy Swain and White have to make a mark off the bench because the final 20 minutes will be all-important if the Wallabies are to sustain their play to an upset.
The Wallabies’ lineout was a dog’s breakfast at times against the Springboks. That key area has to be cleaned up for the home side to have a chance because that’s where they can sting with set play attacks.
The All Blacks are searching for a consistent performance themselves. They’ve made a good call introducing Hoskins Sotutu at No.8. He’s a skilful, influential player and has to fill some huge boots with Ardie Savea unavailable. No Savea and his turf-shredding leg drive is a help for the Aussies.
All Blacks flyhalf Richie Mo’unga and Ioane can be a real headache if given room or cheap space from poorly chased kicks or spilt passes by the Australians.
There will be a full house of 50,000 at the game plus the entire rugby community of Australia watching to see what the Wallabies are made of.
Foley is the fourth-string No.10 of the year, Foketi is the No.3 inside centre choice and Andrew Kellaway is the fifth fullback tried this season. The Wallabies need all of them to click. It’s a big ask but that’s what great Test nights are made of. Pass me another coldie. This Test should be a ripper.
You might hate rolling maul tries off lineouts but you’ll love the $23 about Australian hooker being First Tryscorer. The Wallabies at +11.5 points at the line is worth a nibble too.
Ioane scores tries against Australia. His quote of $2.35 for Anytime Try Scorer is worth it for that history. Australia at $4.70 to win outright will give you a run for your money because the Wallabies should still be in it at the hour mark.
Wallabies +11.5pts
$1.83 (4 units)
Argentina v South Africa
Estadio Libertadores de America, Avellaneda, Sunday September 18, 5:10am (AEST)
South Africa –7.5pts
$1.91 (3 units)
