Bendigo Racing Tips for Wednesday, October 11th

Wed, 11/10/2017 - 11:36am, tim_tips

 

Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Bendigo in Victoria on Wednesday, October 11th.

We have an eight-race card to look forward to in the lead up to a huge weekend of racing, featuring Caulfield Guineas Day and The Everest!

The Bendigo track is rated a God 4, but there’s a stack of rain predicted this afternoon so I’d suggest the track may end up being downgraded.

We have betting tips and comments for every race below to kick off a huge weekend of racing!

BENDIGO RACING TIPS

Best Bet: Race 4 That Rings A Bell

Best Value: Race 2 Isle Of Light

 

Race 1

Very average race to start proceedings. BLACK HAT jumped up quickly from 1600m to 400m last start and was backed from about $9 into $4.40 before finishing 3rd. He was beaten by 5.25L on that occasion, but this is a weak race and now that he’s had that run over 2400m he should be much fitter this time. He goes on top at $5. DEEP PURPLE ran 2nd over 2400m last start on a heavy track. The fact he’s placed over the distance holds him in good stead here, and he draws barrier 1 for Damien Oliver. If the rain arrives early, he’ll be even better suited. Having something on at $6.50. HALLEY’S CHOICE tackles this third up from a spell after finishing 3rd over 2200m last start. Her first up run over 1600m wasn’t bad either, running on well late, and she stepped straight up to 2200m, so she should be much fitter for that run and ready for the 2400m now. REEH next best.

TIP: Black Hat / Deep Purple EW

 

Race 2

Hard race to bet into given there’s six first starter’s, most of which haven’t had a public trial, but I am interested in a couple at good odds. The Ellerton-Zahra stable is going well at the minute, as is Damian Lane, and when he rides for the stable it’s generally because the horse is a chance. There’s been a trickle of money early and with $9.50 available, I’m happy to have a spec bet that this horse is ready to run well on debut. Henry Dwyer is another trainer who has his metropolitan horses performing well. KIWI SHOWGIRL is a filly on debut with Beau Mertens set to take the ride and there’s as much as $13 available. FULTON STREET is another I’d include with Damien Oliver booked to ride for John Sadler. Oliver has a 21% winning strike rate for Sadler. As I said, there’s not much to go off but when there’s a stack of unseen debutantes in the race, I generally like to take on the short-priced favourite with exposed form. Having said that, there’s nothing wrong with Futurist’s form. He went down by a nose over this track and distance first up, and the horse that beat him went on to be competitive in a strong city race.

TIP: Isle Of Light EW (Best Value) / Kiwi Showgirl EW

 

Race 3

It’s not easy to go from maiden grade and win your next start in BM64 grade but I think there’s upside to TEODORA after an impressive debut win at Ararat. She came from last to charge home and get up in the last stride. Darren Weir and Dean Yendall were both impressed by her ability to win from where she was, and indicated she may be up to better races, so I think she can be competitive in what looks a thin race. Happy to take $4.20. VON CLASSIC HERO carries a big weight here but gets a heavy drop in grade here. The last time he ran in BM64 grade he ran 2nd, beaten a nose on wet ground. Looks suited. DASH FOR VEE will get a great run from barrier 1 and will be thereabouts, while BIG JOHN CANNON gets the blinkers back on and the services of Damien Oliver so no surprise to see him run well.

TIP: Teodora

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Race 4

I’d think if THAT RINGS A BELL brought her form from her first up win she’d win this. She showed early in her first preparation that she was very talented, with a big debut run backed up by a huge maiden win. She returned from a spell last start and won by 3L over 1400m at this track. She should even improve off that run and from barrier 1 she will go forward and be very hard to run down. Keen. DANCING HARE looks a value chance at $15. Ran 2nd over this track and distance last start, but in the straight she was jumping at shadows on numerous occasions. She did very well to finish as close as she did under the circumstances, so with a drop in weight and a good draw she should be able to run well again. GOLD BLUSH drops in grade but has the 3kg apprentice on from the wide gate so happy to risk, while I’d much rather take $2.70 for That Rings A Bell than $4.20 for Tiffany’s Lass.

TIP: That Rings A Bell (Best Bet) / Dancing Hare EW

 

Race 5

Tough race with a few live chances. CORUSCATE brings the best juvenile form to the race, and finished 4th first up, beaten 2.4L at the Valley over 1200m. He settled 2nd in the run and peaked at the 100m mark, so the drop back in trip to 1100m suits. He also gets the blinkers applied for the first time, and Craig Williams takes the ride now he’s back from suspension. He should be fitter for the first up run and gets his chance here, but I would have liked to have seen him go a bit better first up. I’m not convinced and I don’t want to be jumping into $3.30 for him. GRANDIOSO may have just needed a run or two to get fit, but I thought his last run showed signs of improvement. The form out of that race will be strong. He was beaten 1.8L by Bandipur and I Did It Again after being held up until the 200m mark. With a couple runs under his belt he should be ready to win third up and the stable is flying. $5 looks a reasonable price. I think the value is ARTSTRUM for Weir. Just fair fist up at Mornington but will be fitter here, draws well and Damian Lane takes over from the apprentice who rode first up. That’s a positive lead and happy to have something on at $8.50. No idea how METSON is $5. Ultra-impressive on debut at Cranbourne when winning by 4L on heavy ground, but it was over 1300m. Finished near the back of the field over 1400m last start so drops back to 1100m after a 35-day break. Happy to oppose, unless the rain comes. EPTIMUM can go well.

TIP: Grandioso / Artstrum EW

 

Race 6

SUPER SNOB bolted in by over 4L two starts ago to break her maiden and followed that up with a respectable run in town last start. She was held up until the 200m mark and finished the race off well enough to run 5th behind Octabello, who looks to be a nice horse. Gets in on the minimum weight here with barrier 1 so if she jumps better she should be able to box seat and go close. BONVILLE returns here as a gelding with Damien Oliver taking the ride for Danny O’Brien. Draws awkwardly but he’s got a good record at 1400m and the money has been there to suggest he will run well. Happy to follow that in and have something on at $9.50. SPANKS ran in to Leather’n’lace two starts ago and the form from that race has stacked up big time. Spanks came out and won his next start, which was over this track and distance. Despite the rise in grade today I’d expect him to run well. No knock on KING MOOMBASSA who will go well.

TIP: Super Snob / Bonville EW

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Race 7

Very keen on SHERLOCK HOLMES here, and the only two reasons he’s not a best bet is because Oliver isn’t riding (he’s been riding most of their horses) and the stable is so unpredictable with these runners second up from a good first up run. His first up run was very good to finish 4th in a strong race over 1800m (he’s never placed first up before), and he’s won his only start when second up from a spell. He’s won over 2600m and 2800m so the distance is no issue, and the weight doesn’t concern me because I think he’s just the superior stayer in this field. TUFF BICKIE comes out of the same race as Sherlock Holmes, where he finished 5th. He’s had another run since then, running home strongly over 2000m to finish 3rd. Rise in distance suits him. OUR BOY CHARLIE, WEAVE and GOLDEN FLAG all come out of the same race last start, where they finished in that order. They all look fairly evenly matched.

TIP: Sherlock Holmes

 

Race 8

Toughest race of the day with nothing really standing out. There’s two at decent odds that somewhat appeal. POPVICH returns from a long spell with Damian Lane booked to ride for Robert Smerdon. He showed good promise with two wins to start his career, but has had problems since, with two long spells and a few disappointing runs. He’s trialled reasonably well leading into this and despite the wide draw he could win this if he rediscovered his best form. ROYAL ACE looks a good value chance for Weir/Rawiller. Finished last first up but he’s undefeated second up from a spell and has won his only start at the distance. There’s the possibility that the horse just isn’t going that well but I’m willing to give him another chance at the odds on offer. CONCENTRATE was enormous when winning last start and could well make the step up in grade. RHYOLA resumes as a gelding and should be included in numbers.

TIP: Popovich / Royal Ace EW

 

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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!

 

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