The Group 1 Hong Kong Derby (2000m) is arguably Hong Kong’s most prestigious race and it headlines the 10-race card at Sha Tin this Sunday, March 18th.
The race is the pinnacle of the four-year-old classic series, and recent winners of this race have gone on to become some of Hong Kong’s biggest stars.
Our horse racing expert @tim_tips was joined by champion HK jockey Zac Purton, who rides the favourite for this race (Exultant), on this week's Before You Bet Podcast! Listen below (41min mark).
2018 HONG KONG DERBY
Favourites have a very good record in this race, with seven of the past 10 favourites winning. The three horses to win that weren’t favourites started $4.70, $4.80 and $6.50, so the market is generally very accurate. The only runners in single figures are the top four runners – (1) Nothingilikemore, (2) Singapore Sling, (3) Ping Hai Star and (4) Exultant.
Half the battle of this race is a horse’s ability stay the 2000m trip. There really doesn’t look to be much depth to this race, there’s plenty of deadwood outside the favoured runners.
I’m with the favourite (4) Exultant. He’s drawn awkwardly in barrier 12 but he tends to get back in his races anyway so he’ll just be ridden dead cold from the moment they jump. He’s got a top jockey on board in Purton, and as Zac alluded to in the podcast (above), this horse will need a good tempo if he’s to make up the ground from the back. The big thing in his favour is we know he will run out the trip strong. He bolted in at his only start over the 2000m, coming from back in the field and looping them before charging clear. His two performances since that win have been acceptable, and his final 200m last start suggests he’s ready for the step back up to 2000m. The barrier just means we’re getting a better price of $3.50.
The biggest danger clearly looks to be (2) Singapore Sling, who beat Exultant by 1.3L in the Classic Cup last start. The big thing he’s got in his favour here is the barrier, which will allow him to settle right behind the leaders, just as he did last start. Barrier 3 is the most successful barrier in Derby history. While all of his main market rivals have drawn awkwardly, he’s drawn perfectly. He’ll get first run on Exultant – he just needs to run out the extra distance.
(1) Nothingilikemore was the $1.80 favourite for the Classic Cup last start, but jumped away very slowly and never looked likely after that. He took care of Singapore Sling and Exultant comfortably in the Classic Mile (1600m) two starts ago, so if you put a pen through his run last start, he looks a big chance in this. In the races leading into last start, he was settling midfield or better, so it will be interesting to see what tactics Joao Moreira uses from barrier 13. He’s another that will need to prove himself over 2000m.
His stablemate (3) Ping Hai Star has won three on the bounce, but they’ve all been over 1400m. To jump from 1400m to 2000m is a big ask, especially at a horse’s first attempt. He’s had a 1700m barrier trial since his last start to tune him up for this, and John Size is a freakish trainer, but it remains a huge query. Moreira jumps off to ride Nothingilikemore and Ryan Moore has been flown in for the ride.
The value could be (7) Rivet, who recorded the fastest final 400m in the Classic Cup last start, despite finishing 5th, beaten 3.3L. John Moore has trained three of the last four Derby winners so he’ll no doubt have him cherry ripe for this but he would need to improve quite significantly to win.
(5) The Golden Age looks the leader of this field on paper and should cross from barrier 11. He needs to turn around a 1.8L margin from last start when he was run down by Singapore Sling, but with a wide barrier and Singapore Sling drawn well again, it looks a very tough task.
Damien Oliver flies in to take what was originally Hugh Bowman’s ride on (6) Ruthven, who won over 1800m last start, but Zac noted in the podcast that the horse will struggle here as he’s far too dour and needs further than 2000m.
Backing (4) Exultant and saving (2) Singapore Sling.
Selections
1st (4) EXULTANT
2nd (2) SINGAPORE SLING
3rd (1) NOTHINGILIKEMORE
4th (5) THE GOLDEN AGE
