If you followed me all season you would be happy to know we went 39-34 with a return of investment (ROI) of 7.27%. That's a win rate of 53%. Hopefully we can go even better with my 2017 NFL Wild Card betting tips.
NFL Wild Card Playoffs Betting Tips
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (Sunday 8th January 8:35am)
The NFL postseason will start and finish in Houston Texas. NRG Stadium is the home of Super Bowl LI on February 6th, but before that it will host the Oakland Raiders and the Houston Texans Wild card game. It’s been sixteen years since the Raiders have played a wild card game. They will be trying to create history in this one when they debut a rookie quarterback as the starter.
The Texans most recent wild card game was an embarrassing 30-0 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, just twelve months ago.
The total for this game is set very low at 36.5 and that’s all because of the quarterback situation for both teams. Two weeks ago, the Texans benched Brock Osweiler for Tom Savage and it was paying dividends for them. Until Savage was sidelined by a concussion against Tennessee last week. The Texans are now forced to go back to Osweiler. He gets his second chance and I believe he will make the most of it (in this spot).
It’s very unfortunate that the Raiders will be without Derek Carr in the post season. If losing their best player wasn’t enough, now their second-string quarterback will not play due to a shoulder injury. That means rookie quarterback Connor Cook will get his first start. Cook was successful at Michigan State last season leading his team to the Cotton Bowl.
Interesting fact: The Raiders traded up with Dallas to get Cook in the fourth round. Dallas then ended up with rookie of the year candidate Dak Prescott.
This Houston defense will be too much for Connor Cook to handle. They are allowing the least amount of total yards in the league (301.3 total yards) and if Osweiler can relax and play loose the Texans can win this game.
Prediction: Oakland 13 Houston 24
Tip: Houston Texans at the line (-4.0) - $1.95 at Sportsbet
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 8th January 12:15pm)
The second wild card playoff game heads over to Century Link field in Seattle. The Seahawks will host the Detroit Lions on what looks like a very cold Saturday night. The Seahawks finished the year with a 10-5-1 record and lost only one game at home. Detroit wasn’t far behind with a 9-7 record. The last time these two teams played was October 2015 and Seattle won that game 13-10.
It’s really-hard to find positives for the Detroit Lions. They seem to have run out of steam this season. In their last three games, they are only averaging 4 points in the second half, yet they’re allowing almost 17 points. Another big concern is franchise experience. Detroit has only made two playoff appearances since 1999.
The Seahawks have never lost a playoff game at Century Link Field!
We always hear how different a “playoff game is” compared to a “regular season game”. It’s this type of experience that will be the difference in this game. Since head coach Pete Carroll arrived the Seahawks have won six playoff games since 2013 (the most in the NFL).
If you are taking the Seahawks you’ll be happy to know that Russell Wilson is a master in night games. He owns a 16-3-1 record and a 106.3 quarterback rating.
Prediction: Detroit 21 Seattle 31
Tip: Seattle at the line (-8.0) - $1.96 at Sportsbet
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (Monday 9th January 5:05am)
If you were watching a super bowl in the 70’s or 80’s, chances are you were watching one of these two teams. The Miami Dolphins put together a very respectable season, finishing 2nd in the AFC East behind the Patriots with 10 wins. The Pittsburgh Steelers may have started the season slow but recently they have been the hottest team in the NFL. They have won their last seven straight games.
The Miami coaches are keeping their cards close to their chest, in regards to who will start at quarterback. It does appear as though second string Matt Moore will get the nod. Moore has been very productive in his last three starts with 721 yards and 8 touchdowns and a QBR of 105.6. However, this will be his first start in the playoffs. Roethlisberger is making his 18th playoff start.
Speaking of playoff starts. Pittsburgh’s all pro running back Le’Veon Bell will make his first appearance, after missing all three playoff games with injuries. Earlier in the week Bell said “I need to keep my energy up, help my teammates feed off my energy. I want to go out there and show people what I can do”…and he will.
Momentum and a revenge factor will be too much for Miami to overcome.
Prediction: Miami 20 Pittsburgh 30
Tip: Total Game Score Over 46.0 points - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Tip: Steelers by 7 to 12 points - $4.50 at Sportsbet
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (Monday 9th January 8:40am)
Lambeau Field (the frozen tundra) will host the New York Giants and the Green Bay Packers and there’s plenty of history between these two NFC wild card teams. Giants quarterback Eli Manning has a perfect record at Lambeau (2-0) but the Green Bay Packers have all the momentum coming into this game.
These two teams played each other back in week 5 this season. The Giants were dominated in time of possession and first downs. Even though the Giants defense sacked Aaron Rodgers four times and forced two interceptions. The Packers were still able to move the chains, with over 400 yards of offense.
No one is doubting the Giants defense. They have allowed just 17.8 points per game (ranked 2nd) but their Offense stinks (unless Odell Beckham Jr) has a day out. The Packers limited OBJ to 5 receptions and 56 yards in week 5 and that’s what they’ll need to do again. Even Packers head coach Mike McCarthy took a shot and said “You go through the video and you don’t see a lot of production”.
This Giants team would probably win the super bowl with any other veteran quarterback but you just can’t trust Eli Manning. He is a turnover machine (16 interceptions this season, 4th worst) and giving the ball back to Aaron Rodgers is a recipe for disaster.
Prediction: New York 20 Green Bay 27
Tip: Green Bay at the line (-4.5) - $1.94 at Sportsbet
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
