2017 Golden Slipper Day Preview & Betting Tips
Fri, 17/03/2017 - 11:54pm, tim_tips
Colossal day of racing at Rosehill Gardens today with the running of the Golden Slipper as part of the 10-race card featuring five Group 1 races!
We also get to see Winx go for her 16th consecutive win, but it's set to be a very, very heavy track after the amount of rain during the week.
We'll be looking closely for those horses adept in rain-affected ground - comments and betting tips on every race below.
Rosehill Racing Tips - Golden Slipper Day - Saturday March 18th
You'd think BIG DUKE would be a massive chance of winning this but I don't think it's any coincidence that Weir's horses go backwards in Sydney and I'll be taking him on all day. I'll be backing OUR CENTURY third up from a spell here and up to 2400m which is a distance he's won at in the past. Comes off a good win in the Wangaratta Cup, the only query will be the bog track. ALLERGIC finished off well last start behind Tavago and Antonio Giuseppe and will relish the step up in trip. Failed two starts ago on a heavy 10 which is the only query, though she went perfectly fine on a soft 7 last start. KINEMA comes into third up and up to a distance he can win at. Gets Ryan Moore back so look for sharp improvement from him.
Tip: Our Century
Nothing wrong with the way HIEROGLYPHICS is going and she proved last start she can handle a Randwick heavy 10 which means she can handle anything! She beat a few of these home on that occasion, gets in with basically the same weight and draws well once more. Hard to beat again and I think the $7 available is a great eachway price. RAIMENT returns from a spell and looks the toughest to beat. She beat Foxplay when winning her maiden and we all know what Foxplay has done since. Her only defeat in her last four starts came at the hands of In Her Time who went on to win a Group 2 and then ran 5th in the Coolmoore last week. She won on a heavy track three starts ago, gets in with just 53kg here and looks a very good chance of winning this. SAMANTHA has won three of her last four starts and all of those have been on Soft or heavy ground. This is another step up but she beat a handy one last start. TEMPT ME NOT is the interesting runner of the field returning from a spell. She is a Group 3 winner on Soft ground and didn't come up last prep but she's won a trial on heavy ground leading into this and definitely has the ability to win. The blowout could be HERMOSA BEACH who made up plenty of ground last start at Canberra and loves the wet ground. Looks a big price at 25/1. Happy to back Hieroglyphics with a penny on Hermosa Beach and wary of Tempt Me Not.
Tip: Hieroglyphics EW
Looks a nice race for TACTICAL ADVANTAGE who has won all four starts this preparation. He was impressive when winning last start on a Soft 6 and there's no reason he can't win again here. Carries top weight but there's only a 2kg spread in the weights and I'd expect him to slide across from barrier 9 and sit outside the leader. STAR OF MONSOON can measure up despite having never won a race, while MY COUNTRY looks slightly over the odds to me. She's got a great first up record and has never missed a place on Soft ground. Her breeding certainly suggests she can handle wet ground so with as much as $17 available I think she's a rough chance.
Tip: Tactical Advantage / My Country EW
HARTNELL looks awfully short here for my liking after he failed terribly last start on the heavy track behind Winx. He certainly ticks some boxes given he's won four from five when third up from a spell and gets up to 2000m which is a big plus, but the track will be bottomless once again so if he didn't handle it last start there's nothing to suggest this track will be any better for him. He may very well bounce back and spank them but $1.90 is poison odds in my opinion and there's a few I'm keen to back to beat him. THE UNITED STATES is the first of those. He comes into this ready to peak after looming up to win last start but just peaking on his run. Stays at 2000m, has won a Group 1 over this track and distance and has also won on a heavy track. $6 available with Bet365 still. I think it's worth forgiving ANTONIO GIUSEPPE for his defeat last week and while he's on a Sydney Cup path, he still might be good enough to win this. he's on the one week back up and he'll be much better off for last week's run given he went straight from 1500m to 2000m and the race was run at a brutal tempo. He tackles WFA which is a big step up but he's undefeated on heavy ground and I'm expecting him to be competitive. Finally, a big watch on OUR IVANHOWE who comes into this first up over 2000m which is similar conditions to what he won the Group 1 Doomben Cup under. The key here is he strikes a wet track which is what the stable have been saying he needs for the last 18 months. While he's never run on a heavy track, I don't think there's any doubt he'll handle it and he looks a live chance at $12. I'll be backing all three.
Tip: The United States / Our Ivanhowe EW (best value)
Winx! Proved last start the heavy track is no issue so we'll look to those that might fill the placings.
CUATQAUQUA and LE ROMAIN had a fantastic battle down the straight in the Canterbury Stakes on the heavy track and they are every chance of filling the placings behind Winx here. Chautauqua steps up to 1500m but he's proved this prep that he's capable of running these sorts of distances. Berry will once again have to negotiate his path from the inside. LE ROMAIN got the better of him last start and if anything I expect him to improve up in distance here. He's run 2nd at every one of his second up starts previously which is a good record but not as good as his first and second up record. He has, however, finished in the top 2 at all three starts on heavy ground and is a Group 1 winner over 1600m so should have no problems here...other than Winx. Of the others, I think $4.80 for the place that Centrebet are offering for McCreery is a decent bet and probably the value in the race. He won really well first up on the heavy ground and his second up record is very good. The WFA conditions means he has to carry 59kg which is a tough ask but he's a live chance in the Doncaster and I expect him to be really competitive here. 52kg in the Doncaster....big hope! If anything I'd probably be backing Le Romain for a place given Chautauqua's place price isn't much to shout about. If chasing a bit of value, McCreery for the place.
Tip: Le Romain place / McCreery place (value)
There's only two I'm interested in here in what looks a pretty thin Rosehill Guineas. INFERENCE looks the best bet of the day to my eye after his brilliant win in the Randwick Guineas last start. I think he's only going to improve off that. He should have nearly won the Derby last prep so the increase in distance is onyl going to enhance his chances and so too is the fact he's third up from a spell. Handled the bottomless track at Randwick last start so no reason he won't handle it here and he is a very clear top pick. ANAHEIM is the value in the race and the big improver up to 2000m. He was an eye-catching run in the Australian Guineas after being held up in the straight and flashing home to run 5th. Has won over 2000m so definitely looking for then distance and the only slight query will be the heavy ground, though he has placed on it before. Third up and ready to peak at $14. COMIN' THROUGH will be thereabouts and is looking for the step up in distance now, though if he wins it will be very hard to swallow! PRIZED ICON sure to run a good race, while I've got a slight concern about GINGERNUTS dropping back from 2400m to 2000m.
Tip: Inference (best bet)
Really tough race. Going to stick with CATCHY who I think is just purely a star and I'm willing to take the punt that she handles the heavy ground. That's not to say she will, but she's good enough for me to take the risk on. Her 1200m time from the Diamond was quicker than Houtzen's Magic Millions win and I just think she'll get a great run in midfield and be ready to pounce. There looks enough speed on for her to use her turn of foot as effectively as she did in the Diamond.
HOUTZEN will probably lead from the wide barrier although there does look to be a fair deal of speed. She's won easily on both starts on Soft ground and she absolutely jogged in when carrying 63kg last start. Slight question over whether she will run out a hard 1200m on a bog track from the wide gate. I'm surprised to see SHE WILL REIGN has drifted out to $7 as I don't think there should be that much of a discrepancy. She only got beaten by Frolic last start because Frolic found the fastlane before anyone knew it existed. The winners came down the outside rail all day after that so I'm prepared to forgive her. Interesting to see how they ride her from barrier 13 but if she gets a sit on Houtzen she might just pounce. She handles the heavy which is a box some of the others haven't yet ticked. TULIP looks the value in the race. She grew a leg last start going the Sydney way and her breeding really suggests she will love the mud. She got convincingly beat by Catchy in the Diamond but may be able to turn it around under the conditions here.
Pretty keen on RUSSIAN REVOLUTION here who has won four of his five races and gets in with just 50.5kg here. His only defeat so far has come at the hands of Flying Artie when he was beaten by 2 lengths in last year's Coolmoore Stud Stakes. Some of the horses he's beaten include Morton's Fork, Astern and Capitalist. He's won two trials leading into this, both very comfortably, and absolutely bolted in in his latest trial on heavy ground. Bred by Snitzel so bred to love the wet and provided he gets a good enough run from the barrier I think he'll be winning this at $5. It could be a stable quinella with REDZEL who looks well suited too second up from a spell. Gets a 3kg weight swing on English from his first up defeat by a nose which should be enough to turn the tables. ENGLISH will be fighting out the finish, HEATHERLY will be around the mark and SUPIDO is getting better with every run after a long spell. MUSIC MAGNATE blew a gale in the market last start and ran accordingly on the heavy track so happy to risk him. GLENALL the blowout.
Tip: Russian Revolution
Happy to give one Godolphin runner a chance today and that is ALEGRIA. She comes into this third up from a spell after running a good race last start where she split Elle Lou who won and Vandancer in third. Gets a weight swing on both of those runners today and will really appreciate the step up in trip here. Goes really well on heavy ground and looks a good chance at $5.50. ELLE LOU broke her heavy ground duck last start so there's no reason she can't be competitive again here. Steps up in trip to 1900m for the first time but her last start suggested she should be able to handle that. VANDANCER won over 1800m three starts ago and placed over 2000m two starts ago before dropping to 1600m last start. She will be in the finish once again, while HAPPY HANNAH is a horse I'm very wary of stepping up to 1900m. Her best will be over 2000m-2400m and she is a seriously talented mare but may prefer dry ground. GABELLA is the blowout at 33/1.
Absolute nightmare of a race to finish on and who knows what state the track will be in come race 10 on the program but POMELO clearly goes on top after two dominant wins to open his campaign this time in. Won first up at Kembla by 6 lengths and then backed it up with a 3 length win at Randwick last start with 60kg. Drops to 54kg and the only query is the heavy track but the breeding suggests she should go well in it and she has finished in the top two at all three starts on soft ground so far. She actually looks one of the better bets on the card. One at value could be INVINCIBLE GEORGE who comes into this first up from a spell and is undefeated from three previous first up runs. He did fail at his only start on soft ground but that was at the end of a prep so hard to know if he handles it. The other I want to mention is OSCAR'S CHOICE who is as much as $201. This horse has won two of his three starts on heavy ground (which were his last two starts on heavy ground) and has won first up once before. Not the worst 200/1 shot I've seen.
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
We preview every race at Caulfield this Saturday, September 23rd, and offer our best bets for the day!..read more
We preview every race at Caulfield this Saturday, September 23rd, and offer our best bets for the day!..read more