2017 AFL: Round 9 Preview & Betting Tips
Tue, 16/05/2017 - 5:43pm, Drop Punta
The 2017 AFL season continues to throw up surprising results every week and while it has been an interesting season, it's made betting a tough task at times. I will be working hard to find some solid results this week as I offer my 2017 AFL Round 9 preview and betting tips. This week kicks off in Friday night in Geelong and there is one less game for the weekend with the Suns and Power having a break after their jaunt to China.
2017 AFL Round 9 Betting Tips
Geelong Cats vs Western Bulldogs (Friday, May 19th at 7:50pm AEST)
The Cats will be happy to forget the last three weeks and head onto their home ground at Simonds Stadium on Friday night. They don't have an easy task ahead, however, with the reigning premiers looking to secure their sixth win of the season.
Geelong started the season 5-0 and were one of the premiership favourites before losing the last three games in a row. They weren't losses to the highest quality of teams either with defeats at the hands of the bottom 8 Magpies, Suns and Bombers. The most damning stat that has been talked about this week is the Cats pressure around the contest and especially their tackle count in last week's loss to the Bombers where they laid only 40 tackles compared to Essendon's 81 - with most of those 40 coming in the second half. Dangerfield has clearly been nursing some soreness and with Selwood not playing his best in recent games, it's becoming apparent that the Cats lack some depth. This week will be all about how they respond and you have to think tackling will be their number one priority. Despite their recent form, the Cats will have plenty of belief against the Dogs as they have won the last 10 in a row including five at Simonds Stadium. Interestingly, the Cats are the only team the Dogs haven't defeated while Luke Beveridge has been coach.
On current form, and at these odds, the Bulldogs look like a solid play. There were still plenty of positives to take out of their loss to the Eagles at Domain last week and I'm expecting them to finally get one against the Cats. It's looking highly likely Mitch Wallis will return form injury this week as they played it cautious on the road after great form in the VFL and he will add even more depth to their midfield which they will need against the Cats. Like the Dogs at the margin, but considering how poor the Cats have been, will be spreading a two-unit play across the head-to-head
St Kilda Saints vs Sydney Swans (Saturday, May 20th at 1:45pm AEST)
The Swans made it two in a row with a victory over the Roos last week and finally got some of their confidence back after starting the season 0-6. They will be aiming to keep up the momentum heading into Round 9, but have a tough match-up against the in-form Saints at Etihad Stadium.
The most promising aspect of Sydney's victory last week was that Josh P Kennedy, Luke Parker and Dan Hannebery all found some form after playing very patchy football to start the 2017 season. They are clearly benefitting by having Isaac Heeney back in the side and playing in the midfield. The Swans midfield is the key to their success (outside of some Buddy magic), so they will once again have to be playing close to their best if they are going to overcome the Saints this week. This will be a much tougher task than the Roos whose midfield isn't exactly their strongest attribute. The Saints, meanwhile, bat very deep in this department and that's where I think this game will be won. Despite their great recent reecord against the Saints, we have to remember the Swans have only defeated the Lions and Roos, so this price for the Saints looks very generous. I will simply be taking the Saints head-to-head here and making it my biggest plays of the week.
Tip: St Kilda to win Hd-Hd - $1.80 at CrownBet (3 units)
GWS Giants vs Richmond Tigers (Saturday, May 20th at 4:35pm AEST)
The Tigers have had a tough few weeks and it's not going to get easier in Round 9 as they head to Spotless Stadium to take on the GWS Giants.
Interestingly, the Tigers and Giants come into this game on the back of climaxes at the opposite ends of the spectrum with the Tigers losing to the Dockers after the siren and the Giants clinching a win in the dying moments against the Pies. Richmond have no excuses for losing to the Dockers in Melbourne and will need a strong response to ensure their season isn't derailed any further. The Giants, meanwhile, were expected to have an easier win against the Pies, but have to take confidence out of a resilient win in a game where they were two players down early in the action. The Giants have some injury woes, but have a deep enough list to win games like this at home. The line is set a bit high for my liking at around five goals, but the Giants should win this one.
Tip: GWS Giants to win by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.15 at Crownbet (1.5 units)
Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows (Saturday, May 20th at 7:25pm AEST)
The Crows come into Round 9 on the back of a couple of horrible weeks which saw them smashed by the Roos and Demons. They will be happy to face the lowly Lions this week and get back to their winnings ways.
There aren't many reasons to think the Lions can defeat the Crows this week. There is certainly a blueprint out there to attack Adelaide's game plan, but the Lions have really struggled this season - especially in conceding big scores which is where the Crows will dominate this game. Rory Sloane and Taylor Walker especially need to make up for some recent poor performances and if they can get back to their best, the Lions may be facing a bloodbath. The line is big for a reason and while I'll be having a small play on this one, I think the Crows will bounce back strong and score a big victory. Jump on as early as I wouldn't be surprised if the line moves a few points - - especially considering Tom Rockliff is out with a shoulder injury and there is no guarantee Dayne Beams returns.
Tip: Adelaide at the line (-43.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks (Saturday, May 20th at 7:25pm AEST)
There is no doubt the Hawks aren't the team they once were, but their 2017 season hasn't been as bad as some in the media have suggested. They managed a solid win against Brisbane last week which was added to a ledger which includes victories over the Eagles and Demons. They will be looking to get their fourth triumph this week against a struggling Magpies and move their record closer to a 50% win rate.
There have been times this season when the Magpies really looked like they could be dangerous, but they continue to disappoint. They simply aren't damaging enough when moving the ball forward, highlighted in their loss to the Blues last week where they scored just 56 points. While we know how good Treloar, Adams and Pendlebury are, I think the Magpies second tier of midfielders have clearly been overrated, while their forward line is arguably the worst in the comp. Treloar will likely be a welcomed return this week, but Ben Reid is now out for 3-4 weeks which is a huge blow to Collingwood's backline. The Hawks' worst football this season has been absolutely horrible and the bookies do have the Magpies as slight favourites, but I think this is off the mark - even with the Hawks injury woes which now includes a sidelined Cyril Rioli. Getting on the Hawks here.
Tip: Hawthorn at the line (+12.5) - $1.91 at Ladbrokes (1 unit)
Essendon Bombers vs West Coast Eagles (Sunday, May 21st at 1:10pm AEST)
Despite all the criticism regarding their MCG form, the Eagles are sitting pretty in third on the ladder with just two losses for the season. They come into Round 9 on the back of a victory over the reigning premiers and will look to secure their current place in the top four against Essendon this weekend.
The Bombers have ridden a bit of a rollercoaster so far this season. Sometimes they are pushovers and other times they look very dangerous like when they defeated the Cats by 17 points last week. When you consider they are ranked 16th for inside 50s (they've lost the inside 50 count in all eight games this season), it's remarkable that they only average a few points less per game than the Eagles. They are clearly converting their opportunities effectively, led by Joe Daniher who has taken his game to another level. They also love to play at Etihad stadium, so they will consider themselves every chance to overcome the Eagles this weekend. I just think it's going to be too tough a task. The Bombers might be able to score almost as well as the Eagles, but they can't defend like them. The Eagles also don't have problems at Etihad like they do with the MCG. I would be surprised if the Eagles didn't win this game by at least a couple of goals.
Tip: West Coast at the line (-10.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (1.5 units)
Melbourne Demons vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (Sunday, May 21st at 3:20pm AEST)
The Demons have been the underachievers of the AFL at times this season. But then there are times like last week when they defeated the Crows by 41 points in Adelaide and it seems like the sky's the limit. However, it won't mean all that much if they drop games like this Round 9 clash against North Melbourne.
Even in their losses, the Roos have been playing good football this year - but that wasn't the case against the Swans last week. They had solid patches, but their sub-par midfield were dominated by Sydney. The difference of having Jarrad Waite to help Ben Brown in the forward line was also apparent. The Demons, meanwhile, played some fantastic football last week and should make it two in a row as long as they don't come into this one thinking it will be a pushover. The Demons have a bit of a habit of losing when they are betting favourites, but I really can't see the Roos winning at the MCG this weekend.
Tip: Melbourne at the line (-12.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1.5 units)
Fremantle Dockers vs Carlton Blues (Sunday, May 21st at 2:40pm AWST)
The final game of Round 9 sees the Blues travel out west on Sunday afternoon to take on the Dockers at Domain Stadium.
Fremantle come into this clash with Carlton brimming with confidence following their after-the-siren heroics against the Tigers last week. They also face the Blues on their home turf so no doubt all signs point to Fremantle moving to a very respectable 6-3 - a great record considering their poor start to this season and their horrible 2016. I do, however, think the Blues will be competitive. They might not be overly consistent, but Carlton have thrown up some surprise performances this season. Their victories over the Swans and Pies a few weeks ago were both great performances and they were gallant in defeat against the Saints last week. I give the edge to the Dockers here, but will be taking them at the margin as I think the Blues defensive efforts have been the most impressive aspect of their game. I just can't see them getting blown out - apart from a Round 5 trip to Adelaide to take on the Power, they have only lost one game by more than 40 points and that was in Round 1 to the Tigers.
Tip: Fremantle by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $1.95 at Bet365 (1.5 units)
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