2014 NFL – Week 7 Preview and Betting Picks
After a couple of quiet weeks betting on NFL we had a blinder in Week 6, going 4 and 1 for a big profit. Hopefully our Week 7 preview and betting tips are just as successful.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (Friday at 11:25am AEST)
Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, New England will play host to ‘Thursday Night Football’ as Tom Brady and the New England Patriots gladly welcome Rex Ryan and the abysmal New York Jets.
The Jets are currently 1-5 and are holding up the AFC East standings while the Pats are now 4-2 and sit atop the AFC East. So how much will the Pats win by, right?
I do believe Belichick and Brady get the points here but there are some concerns. Despite Brady’s fantastic Thursday night record of 6-0 since 2002 the Patriots will be without their number one running back and number one defender. Steven Ridley tore his ACL and star middle linebacker Jerod Mayo is also gone. The latter is a key aspect to this game because it should allow the Jets to run the football or at least create space if Rex is game enough to let Geno Smith throw the football.
New York is 12th in rushing yards per game. A stat they are actually ahead of New England who is ranked 18th. ‘Hand it off to Chris Johnson’
Johnson is averaging nearly 4 yards per carry and will be the key ingredient the Jets need if they are to have a chance at stealing one at Foxborough. There’s 90% chance of rain with thunderstorms. Both teams keep it on the ground and Patriots win 24-17.
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (Monday at 4:00am AEST)
Lucas Oil Stadium will be rocking Sunday as the Indianapolis Colts play host to the Cincinnati Bengals. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck looks like being the first to reach 2000 yards and he also leads the league in touchdowns at 17. The Colts rank 1st in PPG at 31.5 and despite their doubters they really are an offensive juggernaut. When you think about the Colts you automatically think Andrew Luck and a heap of Offense but they also rank first in a very important defensive stat. 3rd down %. They have been lights out when it counts allowing just 29.7% on 3rd down.
Meanwhile Cincinnati looks a mess on defense. Most of their starting line backers are listed as out or doubtful. This will mean more time for Andrew Luck. This means problems for Cincinnati all day. I see a high scoring affair and love the Colts in this spot.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (Monday at 7:05am AEST)
Phillip Rivers, I mean San Diego Chargers sit atop the AFC at 5-1. Rivers is arguably the best quarterback in the NFL at the moment. He has the best QBR (quarterback rating) in the league at 117.6 including 15 touchdowns and has only thrown two interceptions. This is piece of mind punting!
The Chargers have a defense to go with that offense. They are allowing just 15.2 points per game which ranks 2nd in the league.
Kansas City had their bye last week and probably won’t come out as sharp as they did against the 49ers. The line opened at -5.5(SD) but surprisingly now sits at -3.5. They must not have got my memo about the advantage for quarterbacks and Phillip Rivers has been “The Quarterback” so far this year.
San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos (Monday at 11:30am AEST)
Sunday Night Football has the pleasure of hosting Peyton Manning’s history breaking record attempt. Vegas have him as a slight favourite to surpass Bret Favre’s record. Manning needs three touchdowns against the 49ers to do so.
When I first looked at this game I thought seven points for the 49ers was too much but when taking a closer look I quickly realised this was not the case.
Manning and the Broncos are going to take care of business on offense as they average almost30 ppg. Although it’s the Broncos defense that has really stepped it up a notch and they out rank the 49ers in almost every defensive category including total yards, passing yards, rushing yards and the all-important 3rd down % stat.
San Francisco has already had to stretch their defense this season and now they lose star line-backer Patrick Willis. I smell trouble for the 49ers. Denver will win and improve to 5-1. Score prediction Denver 35 – San Francisco 24
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (Tuesday at 11:30am AEST)
Monday Night Football looks like a blockbuster. Okay, maybe not but it’s still a crucial game for both teams. Houston are coming off a heart breaking Thursday night game against the Colts and Pittsburgh got embarrassed by the Browns. Both teams will be looking for a rebound win.
The Texans and Steelers both currently sit at 3-3 in the AFC they have also split their previous four meetings. They both have quarterbacks that are more than likely to throw an interception and also running backs that have been elite this season. On defense the edge would have to go to the Texans with number one draft pick Jadeveon Clowney a possibility to play and of course the 100 million dollar All-Star JJ Watt who is in scary form.
Watt did you just say?
J.J Watt is definitely living up to the Texans hopes. Here are his numbers so far.
17 Tackles
4.0 Sacks
1 interception
2 Fumble Return touchdowns
It might be costing them an arm and a leg but Watt has the tools to turn a game by himself. He will no doubt be causing problems for Big Ben and the Steelers on Monday Night at Heinz Field.
I have heard a lot of talk this week on how Houston’s secondary will be exploited. Firstly Andrew Luck is the best quarterback in the NFL and it was Colts receiver TY Hilton that really hurt Houston. Hilton is a very strange matchup for any team. He is Bilbo Baggins like as he disappears behind defenders. I believe Houston’s secondary will step up this week. It should be a close game and with the extra few days recovery (and the JJ Watt factor) I like Houston to cover the line.
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Week 7 Best Betting Picks
Consider placing your bets at Palmerbet. In 2014, Palmerbet is offering $2 lines on all NFL games – great for Aussies looking to find some extra value betting on American Football.
New York Jets at the line (+10.5) - $2 at Palmerbet *
+ Patriots/ Jets Under 44.5 Total Game Score - $1.91 at Palmerbet **
Indianapolis Colts at the line (-3.0) - $2 at Palmerbet ***
San Diego Chargers at the line (-3.5) - $2 at Palmberbet **
Denver Broncos at the line (-7.0) - $2 at Palmerbet **
Houston Texans at the line (+3.0) - $2 at Palmerbet *
