Racing comes to us from Rosehill in Sydney this weekend with a nine-race card to look through. The track is currently rated a Good 3 and the weather forecast is perfect.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
There's been a stack of money here for the debutante ANOTHER SIN who comes into this with a very strong trial win under his belt. He won that by two lengths, with a further three lengths back to third. The second horse has since come out and won at his first start back from a spell. Looks as if Another Sin has been set for this race, carries just 53kg and gets a strong jockey booking with Corey Brown on board. $4 still available and that will not last so keen to get on now. I'll also be backing NEVER SO SIRIUS at $8.50. She's won two from two to start this preparation and based on last start we could see her lead here, which will be no disadvantage at Rosehill with the rail out 3m. LIFESAVER at the top of the weights is another good chance but I'll let it go around without backing it here. I think if we back Another Sin and Never So Sirius we'll start off the day with a winner.
TIP: Another Sin / Never So Sirius EW
Best bet of the day here with VAUCLUSE BAY. I was against him last start and instead backed the stablemate ZOURKHAN, but Vaucluse Bay bolted in by four lengths. That was enough to convince me so despite the 4.5kg weight turnaround that Zourkhan receives here, I'll be with Vaucluse Bay. He remains at the same track and distance, same jockey and another good draw in barrier 5. Rates very highly once again and $2.20 looks a fair price.
TIP: Vaucluse Bay (Best Bet)
I'm not as keen on ARBEITSAM at the $2.10 here as I am about Vaucluse Bay in the previous, but it's hard to make a case against him. He won over 1400m three starts ago before stepping up to 1800m, when he was pestered in the lead the entire trip and was only run down very late by Vaucluse Bay. As we know, Vaucluse Bay then went onto win his next start by 4L, while Arbeitsam dropped back to 1400m and also won. He steps back up to 1800m here, and while it's not ideal to keep switching back and forth from 1400m to 1800m, if he repeats his performance from two starts ago he probably wins this. Drops to 53kg with the rise in grade, and interestingly, the time for his 1800m race two starts ago was about three seconds quicker than the 1800m race LOYALTY MAN ran 2nd in last start. The value could be SULTAN OF SWING who ran well in Listed company last start after working early. Draws well and shouldn't be far away.
Pretty keen on ZESTFUL here at $8. She comes into this first up from a spell, and she is undefeated in three first up runs to date. She's won three from four at the distance and ran 2nd on the other occasion. Hasn't placed at either run at Rosehill, but both were on wet tracks at the end of preparations so I'm willing to look past that. She carries a big weight here but won first up with 60.5kg last prep so that's also not a big worry. I think she's a great each way bet with Avdulla on board from the inside gate. I'll also be having something on DENPURR at $11. She also returns from a spell and is a winner of three races from six starts when first up. Won her only race at the distance, gets blinkers on for the first time here, and Adkins' claim brings her down to 52kg. SIR PLUSH was brave in defeat last start and deserves to be favourite here. The drop back to 1100m is suitable given he's won four from five at the distance. Draws well, positive jockey change with Clark taking over from Collett, certainly hard to beat but I'd rather back those at the bigger prices.
TIP: Zestful (Best Value) / Denpurr EW
Tricky little race. PEACOCK comes into this first up from a spell and as a gelding. At his best, he really should be winning this race but he's only ever placed once from four starts when first up from a spell, so I've got my reservations about him here. I think I'll have something on him but only to cover my other bets. THE PHARAOH goes on top for me. This horse has run second in his past two starts and both were behind pretty smart horses. The first was behind Awoke, who then came out and ran 2nd to Philosophy, and the second was behind Arbeitsam, who is flying. Firm track suits, from barrier 1 he can either lead or box seat, and I think he's a very good chance in this at $4. I'll also be having something small on HOGMANAY who returns from a spell. Might be better over further but is undefeated from three runs at the track, draws well and gets in well with the 2kg claim. Waller was pretty bullish that he'd run top 3.
TIP: The Pharaoh / Hogmanay EW
Another tough race with a bunch of two-year-old's returning at three-year-old's, which is always hard to get a gauge on. I've got TREKKING on top but not with any great confidence. Won over this track and distance on debut, ran 3rd first up last prep in Group 3 company in Canberra before failing in the Golden Slipper. Returns from a spell here and won a trial in good fashion leading into today. Drawn nicely for Avdulla and at $4.50 the price appeals. MENARI is another that returns here. Probably the best exposed form in the field but shoulders 60.5kg for that reason. Has had two good trials leading into this but I'm just not convinced I want to be jumping in to the $3.30 on offer. SIEGE OF QUEBEC looks a horse with plenty of talent and he beat a handy one in Caculated last start. THat was over 1400m, however, so the drop back to 1100m here is a huge query for mine. PERAST has won two trials leading into this and looks the value in the race at $17. He has form behind the likes of Jukebox in his debut campaign. Keep safe.
I had this quite clearly between WASHINGTON HEIGHTS and TOM MELBOURNE. Washington Heights returned from Hong Kong with a blistering win over 1200m a month ago, defeating Sir Plush which I think is a good form line. He'll get back once again from the barrier I'd think, and the big query I have today is the 1400m. He failed at his only start over 1400m and I'm just not convinced it's his go. I love the horse, but at $2.60 at a distance I'm unsure of, I have to take him on. He could very well prove me wrong though. TOM MELBOURNE goes on top, and it hurts me to say that because we know how much of a money-muncher this horse has been previously. But his trials since joining Chris Waller have been fantastic. First up at 1400m is also a slight query given he's probably a 2000m horse, but based on his trials he is ready to go here. They've taken all the gear off him and taught him to settle, and from the good gate I'm willing to have a bet at $4.50. THAT'S A GOOD IDEA and KINGSGUARD others to include.
TIP: Tom Melbourne
I've jumped off FAITH'S ENCORE which means she'll probably win here, but I just can't back her again. SLUMBER PARTY goes on top for me after a solid 2nd placing behind SUSPENDERS last start. Lost by a nose and gets a 2kg weight swing here so she can turn the tables, but will need a good ride from Avdulla. $4 is about as low as I'd want to go. I think the value is PRADA MISS at the $10 mark. She only won a Highway Handicap last start but she was caught three wide the trip and still managed to win with a bit in hand. She's an interesting addition to the race and while this is undoubtedly a lot harder than what she's faced, she looked a horse that could progress on to better races. MARIQUITA the other one at odds that's worth keeping safe, and SUSPENDERS can win again.
TIP: Slumber Party / Prada Miss EW
I would be pretty keen on IMANUI here but from barrier 2 he is set to get a long way back in the field and at Rosehill that always spells trouble. He gets a 2.5kg weight swing on SPECIAL MISSILE here, but if the Rosehill track is playing to front runners, then that probably won't matter. For that reason, SPECIAL MISSILE goes on top. He's won three straight now and will go straight to the front once again. Drops from 60.5kg to 59kg here and with barrier 4 he really won't have to do any work at all. Undefeated at the distance, and I'd much rather be up on the lead than out the back here.
TIP: Special Missile
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